Scottish Indyref 2

[ExecutiveFiat]

I think it’s inevitable now and only a matter of when not if!
When will it happen and will it be a yes? What are your predictions?

I just can’t get over how small minded someone must be to leave scotland because they don’t like independence.

That’s real intolerance.

“ Scotland needs a period of stability”

Stability in Boris’ Brexit Britain. Very good.

My view is that it is not united anyway. Glasgow - very left wing, sectarianism, want independence. Edinburgh - population rising fast, has the festival, art takes priority, mixed residents. Aberdeen well oil is what matters. Highlands /Islands has many incomers probably needs investment to provide for the summer tourists. SW ignored as usual. SE has a new railway, nice for those in that area.
We were divided by religion, still are in some areas. We want immigrants apparently when surely we want skilled jobs for locals??
Independence isn't an answer to anything imv.

@Buccanarab

I don't feel we are part of a union that has no respect for us at all.

In this union we are treated as an irrelevance. Look at brexit, the majority of scotland voted to remain, by quite a margin, but because Scotland's population is only 5 and a bit million what we want doesn't matter. In this union England decides always.

And to those who assume Scotland couldn't financially make it alone here's just a few of our national assets.

World renowned tourism destinations & events.
World renowned food and drink industry.
World leader in renewables/green technology.
An estimated 25% of Europe's offshore energy capacity.
4th largest core fishing waters in Europe, which are some of the richest fishing grounds in the world, and account for 87% of the UKs fishing catch.
Most of the UKs fresh water supply (Loch Ness alone contains more fresh water than all of England and Wales).
1/3 of the UKs land mass.
And finally 96% of the UKs oil and gas fields.

But of course there's no possible way us subsidy junkies could go it alone.*

I think this is just part of the independence misnomer. I am totally neutral about it. If Scotland wants to go alone then so be it. The problem I see is that typically the debate is about emotion and not facts as the post above shows waxing lyrical about Scotland's assets. Not untrue but misses the point.

What is the current Scottish financial position? Currently a budget deficit of 8%. This is carried due to a subsidy from the U.K. wide economy. If this subsidy was removed (Barnett Formula) then the Scottish economy would see cuts that would make previous austerity reductions more akin to Greece. Source - Institute for fiscal studies www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13287.

Scotland would join the EU. Well it might be a nice ambition, but based on the current EU rules this would not be a prospect in any forceable future. Any new country joining the EU must join the euro and be subjected to the fiscal rules from Brussels. Not unreasonable at all. What is the current average budget deficit in the eurozone? O.5%. Source Eurostat. Scotland would be forced by not only EU rules but basic economics to go through a public sector spending reform programme like Ireland and also Greece. And this is before joining, not after. This is not hysteria, but pure economic facts which don't get discussed often enough as the focus is on the emotion and delight of a country that Scotland is, yes beautiful, good tourism etc but the reality if that probably for at least 20 years Scotland as an independent country would not be allowed anywhere near the eurozone.

The EU nearly crashed and saw the euro wiped out in the financial crash. They learnt the lesson of allowing in countries with poor fiscal discipline such as Greece, Portugal etc so I don't understand why it is suggested in a wider independence debate they would be welcomed with open arms. Scotland wouldn't currently but maybe if the economy was reformed but I'm not sure how palatable it would be for Scotland seeing the huge budget reductions

“ The problem I see is that typically the debate is about emotion”

The only people invoking emotion in this debate are unionists who say independence would make them “feel sad”.

IndyRef2 was on the cards the second IndyRef1 went 'No'.
Raison d'etre of SNP.
Like in Westminster recently, with the whole Brexit debacle, the SNP allocates a huge amount of resources to Independence when they should be fixing Education, the NHS, and local authorities.

(plus they are somewhat stubborn as a party - look at Swinney's recent statements about the Named Person scheme, ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court, yet, like BoJo, the SNP appear to think they are above the law on this).

It will go 'Yes' this time.

@ARoomWithoutADoor

And that's the prerogative of Scottish people if another referendum is granted, but unfortunately it won't be about hard economic facts which I accept can be boring to most, but won't be when tuition fees, care home fees, prescription charges, tax increases for standard taxpayers and a whole host more are introduced to start reducing the massive budget deficit.

The public head spend per person is thousands more than other parts of the U.K. Some of this is understandable given the remoteness of many parts of the country (which also makes it so attractive) but unfortunately the Scottish economy can't yet sustain that level of spend based purely on Scottish economy activity

Politicians lie, bend the facts and issue rallying calls. I haven't seen any credible challenge to facts produced by the IFS or Eurostat as they are built on evidence and facts, and not some load of drivel emanating from a politicians mouth

But....we wouldn't have Brexit either if that had been considered on the facts but the reality was immigration trumped it

I'm not sure it will be quite as popular then.

*Ireland is in the EU with about 5 million pop

• and we've seen over the last 3 years the power the EU gave them to finally be top dog over England*

Luxembourg is a member country too, only 600,000 pop

There are many arguments against Scottish independence, but that's not a good one.

Was that a response to what I said? If so, I agree with you that plenty of small countries seem to be doing OK in the EU. I just don't understand the view that many seem to have, that Scotland (and presumably Wales and NI too) is dominated and its needs and interests completely ignored by a much bigger nation in a very unbalanced union of four nations - to the point where leaving is the only realistic option - whereas as one of the smaller nations in a union of 28 or so, this definitely would not happen.

Scotland must do whatever the majority of Scots want - as with the majority of people in the UK wanting Brexit - but I simply don't understand the apparent principle that 'England' (not forgetting that many people in all four nations voted both ways - it certainly wasn't polarised) is racist and bigoted for wanting to leave the EU whereas Scotland is courageous and forward-thinking for wanting to leave the UK.

Sorry, partial bold-fail there.

I know the SNP stamp their feet and say we will keep the pound but Westminster have categorically stated that wouldn’t happen

And Westminster speaks the gleaming truth at all times!

I simply don't understand the apparent principle that 'England' (not forgetting that many people in all four nations voted both ways - it certainly wasn't polarised) is racist and bigoted for wanting to leave the EU whereas Scotland is courageous and forward-thinking for wanting to leave the UK.

I'm not sure that is the way most people see it but it's certainly a view I've heard. Explained very simply thus:

England (and Wales) voted to turn it's back on the EU which is presented as full of 'Foreigners'. ( eg rabid 'Tides of immigrants flooding in from Turkey' type headlines from The Daily Mail)

Scotland voted to stay in the EU - which is full of 'people'.

I know the SNP stamp their feet and say we will keep the pound but Westminster have categorically stated that wouldn’t happen

And Westminster speaks the gleaming truth at all times! grin

Is there actually anything that a country can do to stop another country from using its currency if they choose to? Yes, it may never be made official, but you could travel through much of the world and get by with a wallet full of US dollars. If something is treated widely as currency, can the originator of that currency do anything to stop it?

After all, if you bought a million tons of potatoes from country A and instituted and started circulating them as the accepted currency in country B, could the grower from whom you bought them stop you?

Could we in England keep British summer time and not alter the clocks so we are living in a permanent twilight zone if Scotland gained independence?

From the tone of the posts on this forum, I'm guessing that a lot of the contributers are not Scots. It's disappointing to read so many comments that contain information which is false or misinterpreted. Have any of you actually done your own research rather than believe all that is reported by possibly biased press or tv. This is your future, you are privileged to be able to play an active part by voting. You owe it to yourselves and your children to make that choice an informed one.

Oh and the NHS in England is so much better? It has its problems but no its not falling apart.

When my DM in rural Gloucestershire got cancer, she had chemotherapy and radiology across three different hospitals within 30 minutes of her, depending on which one was more convenient for her on any given day.

Up here in the Highlands, my two nearest hospitals (still a reasonable 40 minutes and 60 minutes away) don't do chemotherapy or radiology (or a lot of other things, like maternity services). For that we have to travel about three hours each way to Inverness. Or four hours if you were my 90-year-old MIL, who got strapped to a back board and driven down in an ambulance after they couldn't raise anyone in the county's hospital to give her the x-ray and scan she needed after falling down the stairs at home.

I know an anecdote doesn't equal data, but I've spent 33 years in England and 11 in Scotland and the English NHS has been far, far better.

MarieG10

IndyRef2 is the prerogative of the Scottish voters, as it was last time.

My concern is that, just as with Brexit, it is easy to become swept up in emotional reasons to vote, rather than cold hard economic facts.
ie the UK is better off as part of the EU. Scotland is better off as part of the UK - the fiscal deficit per person is 8 times higher in Scotland. The Austerity measures which would come in once the Barnett subsidy is lost are enormous - taxes have already gone up recently.

But, just like in Westminster, there is a party in charge which is ideologically hell bent on travelling one way (which is actually against the 'will of the Scottish people, last time they were asked) and meantime is letting Education, NHS etc go to hell in a handcart.

@ARoomWithoutADoor

Totally agree it is the prerogative of Scottish voters. As I previously said I'm neutral anyway. And there is nothing wrong with people voting purely in emotions but as long as they are fully informed about all the facts. I won't restate what I said before. If the emotion dictates an independent scotland is what matters to a voter no matter what, then that is totally and utterly legitimate. But do so in the clear knowledge of the economic impact. Ie that the Scottish economy will have to sustain a massive contraction due to huge public spending cuts. As I said, not my opinion but based on hard economics and data that is readily available from the independent IFS

Look at the furore over Brexit and voters not realising the truth and full implications. Debatable but currently Sturgeon is choosing not to address the economic implications, as opposed to what one Poster did before waxing lyrical about the tourism and North Sea oil potential. Um....yes potential but with an 8% budget deficit gap to fill, the highest of any country in europe how will the doctors and nurses gat laid, teachers etc....... and no way will the EU allow any country to join with such massive deficits especially after the Greek experience

Will see a crisis worse than Greece.

I just personally prefer evidence and facts. But votes like Indy ref /Brexit etc tend to be emotion.

Where do the IFS get their data from?

MarieG10
We are agreeing, I think.
Like with Brexit, I am concerned that people are not able to access sufficient hard economic data prior to voting. If they can and vote, like Turkeys for Christmas, well that is Democracy.

But if a Govt either withholds or spins the financial facts, as they ALL do, then we may get a result which is regretted by all. I agree that there are huge holes in the figures and the deficits will make the EU say 'Non' even if, emotionally, they'd like to re-admit Scotland.

Nurses may still get laid though ;) (I am not a nurse but that made me smile)

@HirplesWithHaggis

Where do the IFS get their data from?

Numerous agencies such as the ONS, IMF, Eurostat. Ie non political usually and subject the data to their own analysis. The IFS is renowned for impartial analysis and usually not to governments liking.

@ARoomWithoutADoor Yes sorry about that. Wouldn't like to be be depriving Scottish nurses of their fun lol.