Scottish Indyref 2

[ExecutiveFiat]

I think it’s inevitable now and only a matter of when not if!
When will it happen and will it be a yes? What are your predictions?

The unionist campaign which won in 2014 promised extensively and with great fanfare that voting against independence meant Scotland staying in the EU

This is trotted out again and again. David Cameron announced the EU referendum in 2013. About 18 months before the Scottish referendum. It was always likely that the EU referendum would take place and it was obvious to me from the start that we would vote to leave because of all the little Englanders thinking we won WW2 all by ourselves.

David Cameron told us the only way to be sure of staying in the EU was to vote No, then almost immediately called the EU referendum which gave us a huge chance of being out of the EU, although anyone who said that would have been accused of scare-mongering

As I said above, Cameron announced the referendum in 2013.

He announced In 2013 his intention to hold one if he won the 2015 election. Then he and his unionist campaign fellow travellers spend the entire 2014 Indyref campaign saying Vote No to guarantee staying in the EU.

The 2014 referendum was supposed to be a ‘once in a generation’ thing - apparently that meant ‘once in a generation unless we don’t like the result, in which case we will bang on about it endlessly and rerun it as often as necessary’. This is why I do not trust the SNP

I think it would have been a once in a generation thing if Scotland hadn’t been shafted with:
EVEL
The Smith Commission watering down the Vow substantially
Brexit and the following disrespect agenda.

That a referendum is even up for debate at this point and polling at 50% yes is entirely the fault of Westminster.

There are only two workable options: either we are a UNITED kingdom of 60+ million people, each with an equal individual vote, or we split however many ways and consider ourselves to be 2, 3 or 4 separate countries.

I actually agree with you on this point. The problem is we're currently a hybrid of the two. If there was no Scotland, England, Northern Ireland and Wales ( no Scottish parliment or Welsh assembly, no England or Northern Ireland national teams etc) and just a United Kingdom then the current 'everyone has an equal individual vote' would be fine.

However most of us think of ourselves as Scottish/English/Welsh first and British second or not at all and while that's the case you'll always have divison.

Even if we did become four completely separate nations (and just imagine the protests of those who voted not to split but end up in the sizeable minority), you would still have inequalities within the resulting nations as populations still tend to be concentrated in relatively small areas. Would you give the combined population of each settlement exactly the same political weight? i.e. if Glasgow overwhelmingly votes in favour of something but Alloa and Ullapool vote against, then their decision goes for the whole country because 2 out of 3 settlements wanted it?

Obviously not, I mean there's no history of Glasgow or Alloa being indpendent nations for one and I've never heard someone answer 'Glaswegian' or 'Dundonian' to the question what nationality are you? If they got together down the line and decided they wanted to go it alone, like Catalonia, then I suppose you'd have to let them have a vote but that's neither here nor there just now.

As for inequalities as you said there'd still be many in an independent Scotland but it would be far easier to work towards eradicating them in nation of 5 million with full government control, than in a nation of 60+ million where those with the majority of the power will never be primarily concerned with you.

What kind of margin would yes voters be happy with implementing independence on?

Don't be daft @MorrisZapp you know the answer to that one. If there was just half a dozen votes in it, they'd be declaring it a decisive victory and planning their independence day celebrations. No regard whatsoever for people who disagree with them.

We had the misfortune to have a SNP MP between 2015 and 2017. He blocked all constituents on social media who dared to criticise him, or his party. So representative. So interested in listening to voters of different political persuasions.

But the referendum should absolutely have been set up so we could only leave the UK if all 4 (5) parts of the UK voted to leave, not just by simple majority.

That's a recipe for resentment, though, if 1.5million people in NI could potentially hold the rest of the UK to ransom when 9.5million people in London could easily be overruled. Open to abuse, too, if you can 'encourage' a small percentage of people to help pass something, such as TM's debacle with the DUP.

Incidentally, how do people in Wales and NI feel about the belief of a dominant England dictating everything? I know Wales also voted majority in favour of Brexit, but in other matters? is there a groundswell of opinion in favour of independence for the smallest two home nations? (obviously, I'm aware that many in NI would prefer to join with the RoI rather than be an independent nation on their own).

How does it work within the EU, does anybody know? Do Malta, Cyprus and Luxembourg have the same amount of votes on everything as Germany, France and Italy?

I’ve not saw any polls with a majority yes. I have saw the opposite. Everyone is speak to is sick to the back teeth of the snp and just wish they would get on their day job.

If we had voted yes the last time, we would be out of Europe anyhow.

However most of us think of ourselves as Scottish/English/Welsh first and British second or not at all and while that's the case you'll always have divison.

Do we? genuine question. I was born in England and currently live there, as I have for most of my life, but if you asked me my nationality or country, I would say British or UK without a moment's thought. I only consider myself English when it's relevant in relation to differences for Scottish/Welsh/N Irish people, but otherwise, I'm just British. I wouldn't outright reject 'English', but it would seem weird to me as I'm British and that's my identity, as far as nationality is concerned. Obviously, many people will identify differently, but I hate it when English people will say "this is how we usually do things in England" (e.g. when comparing to Spain/Australia/USA), as if that particular aspect of culture is somehow noticeably very different if you cross the border into Monmouth or Jedburgh.

I understand that a lot of younger people in the UK don't even consider themselves British - just 'European'. Hence a lot of the outcry over Brexit....

No thanks.

The SNP are doing a shocking job of running my country as it is.

“ RasberryRoyale

If we had voted yes the last time, we would be out of Europe anyhow.”

We’d probably be back in by now or at least in EFTA which would be absolutely fine.

StreetwiseHercules

See, I don’t believe that. The snp told so many lies and had so many vague answers the last time around. Europe made it clear we weren’t getting back in alone. And good thing we didn’t go independent because the snp magic plan of oil didn’t work out did it.

Also how is independence being controlled by Brussels? The snp want to give Brussels control of our waters for fishing. Meanwhile education and hospitals are falling apart whilst they blab on about unicorns and rainbows and how everything is the fault of Westminister.

@WeBuiltThisBuffetOnSausageRoll

"A massive 84% of people said they strongly identified themselves as Scottish, with most (61%) saying they identified "very strongly".

In England, 80% identified themselves strongly as English, with 54% choosing to say their identity was very strong. In Wales, just 62% identified strongly as Welsh."

The above is from a 2018 BBC survey, that I've now lost the link for. Image from a 2015 yougov poll.

Both show a majority of Scots think of themselves as Scottish more than British, which maybe explains the push for independence here.

@19lottie82

*No thanks.

The SNP are doing a shocking job of running my country as it is.*

You do realise than the SNP wouldn't necessarily be the ruling party in an independent Scotland don't you?

I am looking forward to the Engineering Project that will carry out repair works that a previous manager called Hadrian started 👍👍😎

Meanwhile education and hospitals are falling apart whilst they blab on about unicorns and rainbows and how everything is the fault of Westminister.

Agree re education but the NHS in Scotland is outperforming the rest of the UK.

I really hope it doesn’t happen.

It’s difficult to know who to vote for in the upcoming election as I’m against Brexit but also against the SNP.
I don’t think they’ve really done any good for the country as all they do is bang their drums about independence.

I think there are a lot of lessons to be learned from this Brexit mess, there’s a lot that would need to happen to support independence and requires an infrastructure we just don’t have.

Indyref was a massive waste of money, Brexit so far has been a massive waste of money and I don’t see how Indyref 2 wouldn’t be the same.
Also amuses me how once in a lifetime became once in a Glasgow lifetime then once in a generation.

The "once in a generation" thing –I may be wrong about this, but I was pretty engaged in the first indyref and I remember Salmond coming out with this phrase twice, maybe three times.

It was an inadvisable thing to say, clearly, and he probably regrets it. But the fact that he did say it is not a reason for Scotland not to be independent. Focusing in on this is just muddying the waters.

BUT I suspect when they see the effect of loosing the £1000's of £ of subsidies provided as being part of the union which means loss of free university education, prescriptions and care for en elderly I suspect it may change

And that's exactly what part of the problem is, can't wait for independence. Scotland don't receive "subsidies"... as part of the UK they have a budget just like the other countries. We are part of the UK still. Part of the health budget is spent on providing free prescriptions... that's not a subsidy, just part of the budget! Westminster could do this to our of the budget for the English NHS, but they don't. They provide money for walk incentres for example which Scottish Government don't. No-one says the English NHS get subsidies so why does this tired old nonsense still get trotted out for Scotland eh.

Thanks, @Buccanarab - that's interesting to see.

against Brexit but also against the SNP.

Lib Dem then. Labour have said they will allow Ms Sturgeon her indyref.

I remember Salmond coming out with this phrase twice, maybe three times

Just checking, that;s the same Salmond who's due in court next month on 2 charges of rape, 9 of sexual assualt and 2 of indecent assault?

Sorry, two charges of attempted rape.

Not that "attempted" is any better.

I’m not focusing on it I’m just saying I found it amusing that they changed it to suit themselves.

I think it’s a bad idea for a multitude of reasons. Some examples;

We’re an island nation they want to scrap trident, we have no army so will be totally defenceless and a sitting duck - kind of like what happened to the Channel Islands during WW2.

The magical oil money argument stems on a report carried out in the 70s - the author of that report has even spoken out against it.

Like many have said, there’s no guarantee we would be allowed to join the EU as an independent country. Even if we were there’d most likely be caveats like joining the euro.
I know the SNP stamp their feet and say we will keep the pound but Westminster have categorically stated that wouldn’t happen.
The economy has already suffered enough with the instability caused by Brexit.