Scottish Indyref 2

[ExecutiveFiat]

I think it’s inevitable now and only a matter of when not if!
When will it happen and will it be a yes? What are your predictions?

If that makes anyone in England sad, then they should have compelled their MPs to do a better fairer job in Westminster and not treat Scotland with such disregard and disrespect.

How do you propose we do that? Scotland is not the only place they treat with such disregard and disrespect. Try walking around Birmingham, Nottingham, Derby: try finding a wage in Derby that will match the local house prices. Try travelling around anywhere in mid-north England without a car.

I like Scotland and Wales both, and I wish the hatred - from both sides - would stop. Our blood has mixed often enough, it's time to stop the tribalism.

I bloody well hope not!

I cannot for the life of me understand why, having seen the disaster of trying to leave the EU, anyone would think it would be good for Scotland to leave another, much older Union with our closest neighbour.

From what I hear from friends Scotland is falling apart at the seams as it is eg NHS abysmal

Oh and the NHS in England is so much better? It has its problems but no its not falling apart.

I would like it but cannot see it happening. I cannot see any chance of Labour being near enough to need SNP support to get into power, for which the price would be Indyref 2.

I see the ant-scottish shits are out in force today.

We are a constituent country of the UK, and if we became independent we would have to take our proportional share of UK debt. That also means we are entitled to the equivalent share of assets.

Not being goady, genuine question: how come it's four constituent nations of equal standing which should have equal weight and an equal say in deciding/vetoing UK-wide issues, disregarding the huge population imbalance between England and the other three; but when it comes to dividing up the UK's national debt, it's only 9% for Scotland to take on and not 25% each? Surely either everything is done per capita or everything is split equally four ways, no?

Lol.

9% is per capita.

Late to the thread but oh fuck no not again pleeeeaaaaaase

Again people will be shocked because "everyone they know voted yes". 'Cept they didn't but they kept quiet about it because of the vitriol being thrown about. Just like Brexit.

I can't speak for Scotland, as I don't live there, but you're absolutely right about Brexit. When people know they're going to be angrily slapped down as stupid and/or racist for having used their democratic vote - not even proposed as a personal opinion but simply accepted widely as though it were proven fact - by the so-called 'liberal' masses with the loudest voices, they learn to keep their heads down and not to bother entering the bear pit.

Ironically, many of those shouting "racist" and "intolerant bigot" are displaying their appalling ageist beliefs, abusing those over 50 for daring to have a say in how their own country is run, simply because they won't be alive for as many more years as today's young adults - a good proportion of whom didn't bother to go out and vote and yet have reacted in utter horror and despair when those who did bother to use their vote made a different decision than the one that they would theoretically have made, had they deemed it important enough beforehand.

Lol.

9% is per capita.

So you accept that England should naturally have proportionally far more say in UK-wide decisions and has in no way shown disdain or disregard for Scotland because voting rights are also per capita and it just so happens that far more people live in England than the other home nations and have each simply used their one-vote-per-adult?

Somebody upthread said that each of the four nations should have to agree individually to any major changes such as Brexit before they can be passed - and thus any one home nation would have the veto which would affect the entire UK, which could in reality come down to a few hundred thousand people in NI dictating what the whole country does or doesn't do.

Why is per capita fair when it comes to shouldering national debt but somehow not when it comes to political sway?

As I said, it must be either per capita for EVERYTHING or a quarter of the rights AND responsibilities for each home nation - how can anything else be in any way fair?

“ So you accept that England should naturally have proportionally far more say in UK-wide decisions and has in no way shown disdain or disregard for Scotland because voting rights are also per capita and it just so happens that far more people live in England than the other home nations and have each simply used their one-vote-per-adult?”

Yes, I agree, and you have d underlined precisely why the union is unworkable.

I have never at any point proposed or agreed with those who propose any kind of double lock that any of the 4 nations should be able to veto one another.

We’ll be having our 9% of assets paid out, which is worth far more than the 9% of the debt.

As far as I can see, a vote for either SNP or labour is a vote in favour of a referendum in Scotland, so Scottish people have a choice.

Viewing from the outside having a second referendum would be very damaging to the Scottish economy and to the fabric of communities there.

But if the Scottish people want to leave, its better for everyone if they do it quickly. If there's going to be a referendum it's should be soon after Brexit as possible so the country can work towards equilibrium after these politically turbulent years.

I would love to know if the SNP will be prepared to leave on a 'no deal' or will they only leave when they have a deal that includes staying in the single UK market and customs union?

Still No from me.

Viewing from the outside having a second referendum would be very damaging to the Scottish economy and to the fabric of communities there

Same viewing it from the inside. Utter madness.

“ I would love to know if the SNP will be prepared to leave on a 'no deal' or will they only leave when they have a deal that includes staying in the single UK market and customs union?”

I guess it depends on how much rent you want to pay for your nuclear weapons and for how long.

Yes, I agree, and you have d underlined precisely why the union is unworkable.

Fair enough, then. I didn't say it was you who proposed the one-nation-one-vote system, so I accept you wouldn't be in favour of this. I presume you also wouldn't be in favour of an independent Scotland being in the EU, then, as this would surely be equally unworkable, having nations with populations the size of Germany's, France's and Italy's governing alongside Scotland with only 5 million or so?

“ presume you also wouldn't be in favour of an independent Scotland being in the EU, then”

Personally, no I’m not in favour. My preference is for an independent Scotland in EFTA and Schengen or an Isle of Man type arrangement.

There would be a referendum on that in due course in an independent Scotland.

I believe EFTA can be successfully argued for but the EU is not a nightmare outcome like remaining in this UK is. At least there is equality in the EU where even the smaller nations can exercise veto and have times when they have the presidency.

I do believe also that the EU is unsustainable and will fragment over time anyway.

Ireland is in the EU with about 5 million pop

• and we've seen over the last 3 years the power the EU gave them to finally be top dog over England

Luxembourg is a member country too, only 600,000 pop

There are many arguments against Scottish independence, but that's not a good one.

The SNP are doing a rubbish job here. School results are dropping, waiting times for hospital appts are much worse than when I was in England 3 years ago. They never shut up about independence and have no real answers to the tough questions posed, eg currency, border, would the economy be strong enough to rejoin the EU, would the EU have us and so on. It's like the nats are living in a dreamworld.

They're shortly bringing in a tax on workplace car parking, at the behest of the Greens in return for propping up the SNP minority government. Scotland is also the highest taxed part of the union.

I imagine lots of unsavoury things are going to come to light in Alex Salmond's upcoming trial. The sectarianism here is quite frightening at times. I could go on all night; it's not all sweetness and light living in Scotland.

I wish the SNP would stop using everything as an excuse to call for indyref 2. The irony of wanting to leave the UK but stay in the EU seems lost on nationalists at times. We are so much stronger as a union and I truly hope the UK is not broken up. Plus, my husband has already said we'd move back to England if independence is gained; I dont think I have another house move left in me.

Even the Uk after Brexit will be in a much weaker negotiating position when it comes to trade deals
Scotland on its own wouldn't have a chance

EFTA looks a good fit, also wrt relative size of existing members
However, it would mean a goods border with England, its biggest trading partner by far - massive consequences for the Scottish economy

After seeing how complicated it is to extract a country after 45 years of integration, the problems Scotland would have look even worse.

It's not impossible, but the SNP would need to make plans which include impact statements

• don't copy Brexiter-type fantasies like "easiest trade deal in history"; expect a long recession

Of course Scotland can be independent.

It's a country with half the population of Portugal, but double the GDP per capita. Is anyone here suggesting Portugal is incapable of managing its own affairs?

Anyone in Scotland who continues to believe we should have continuous governments we didn't vote for doesn't actually genuinely believe in the means to a better future.

What has the rest of the UK done for us? Imposed Brexit. Imposed austerity. Imposed wars abroad. Are we supposed to be grateful to them for that?

I want the best for England, Wales and NI. But that doesn't mean I believe our home is part of that 'union'.

A 'union of equals -- does anyone actually believe that any more?

Independence will happen, the question is no longer 'if' but 'when'. I wish the rest of the UK well, but I don't want to be a part of it. I don't feel British, and I never will.

“ presume you also wouldn't be in favour of an independent Scotland being in the EU, then”

Personally, no I’m not in favour. My preference is for an independent Scotland in EFTA and Schengen or an Isle of Man type arrangement.

Fair enough, then - your overall reasoning makes sense to me, IMHO.

Plus, my husband has already said we'd move back to England if independence is gained; I dont think I have another house move left in me
Steelriver that is what I believe on mumsnet is termed "a dh problem" not a political one.

MissRabbitNeedsAHoliday

Its driving me insane. The last few years I feel like it's been constant general elections and referendums. I'm from Scotland and would hate another referendum at the moment. I have no idea who I'm going to vote for in the general election either, I don't want to vote snp and give them ideas for another referendum, don't want to vote Tory and I'm not a fan of Jeremy Corbyn 🤦‍♀️

I think you've just summed up the feelings of half the country!
Scotland needs a period of stability not more referendums. Labour don't seem to want power in the current period of negotiations. Which leaves many people with the same headache, SNP vs Tory