to ask you to read Operation Yellowhammer documents and see for yourself how Brexit will impact you

[chomalungma]

Just been released

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

And I wonder what Number 15 is. It's been redacted.

So much to highlight:

Impact of food and fuel prices on poorer people.
Impact exacerbated due to winter flu issues at that time of year
Lorries delayed and flow reduced to 40 - 60%

And I'm only on page 1

And provide 10 links from the Russians to prove it

@Septembersunrays You seem to forget or not realise that we are a member of the EEA outside our EU membership. It is extremely likely that any Europeans living in the UK who may have committed bludgeoning crimes would have come and lived here under that agreement if we had never joined the EU. So our EU membership is irrelevant to your argument.

And who are these bludgeoners? oh yeah, you cannot be bothered to find any.

You are just anti immigration aren't you? Did you vote Tory, UKIP or Brexit party?

What I am really curious about is the "Black Swan" rumour on Facebook. Apparently this is the base supposition whilst Black Swan is the true emergency.

"Black Swan" is a commonly used term to refer to any large event that us unprecedented or very unexpected.
The referendum result and aftermath was itself a black swan as no country has ever attempted to leave the E.U.
So, in the context of the govts. Black Swan plan, they will have looked at every element -supply chains, fuel, financial sector, travel etc etc and followed the most unlikely or most extreme outcome possible.
It's hard to plan for a black swan, obviously, but it's a nessecary excercise.

Here is the Times article outlining the original, leaked Yellowhammer document (share token so you can read without a subscription):

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-planning-assumptions-the-leaked-operation-yellowhammer-document-797qxkrcm?shareToken=508c471115f3a6ddb59a6f466042e339

Check out the first two words: BASE SCENARIO

The rest of the Times article is the same as the newly published Yellowhammer document, except for the redacted bit in the new version about refineries closing down, 2000 job losses and strike action.

I don't believe this is the full document. I think they have carefully and deliberately only published the parts that were leaked.

bellinisurge
It could be pissing down outside and Clavinova would say it was sunny.

And you are the complete opposite to me - you probably have an emergency grab bag packed by the door. I blame the gloomy weather you have in the North of England.

And provide 10 links from the Russians to prove it

I have a link to the Epilepsy Society:

Epilepsy Society reassures people that contingency plans are in place for medicines post Brexit

^Clare Pelham, Chief Executive at Epilepsy Society said: "We entreat people with epilepsy not to rely on leaked documents for information about their prescribed medication.The Department for Health and Social Care is making careful contingency plans and is well aware of the needs of people with epilepsy.

Sufficient stockpiles
"They are working with pharmaceutical companies to ensure that everyone has sufficient stockpiles of medication and that rerouting plans are in place where necessary."

www.epilepsysociety.org.uk/news/Epilepsy-Society-reassures-people-contingency-plans-in-place-medicines-post-Brexit-03-09-2019#.XXoYQdFK2Uk

And the head of the French channel ports has dismissed warnings of Brexit chaos on the Dover-Calais trade route as irresponsible scare-mongering by political agitators!

Clavinova - we've had this discussion before. The head of the French ports has a vested interest in stating that his ports are ready. If firms begin to use other ports such as Zeebrugge or Hook of Holland, his ports lose revenue. In addition, he only runs the port infrastructure - he does not control the customs or police, or decide how the customs procedures and administration should be followed.

when [Karen Wheeler] was introduced it was pointed out that she hadn't been privy to any government papers since June

She's not alone! Has anyone been privy to any government papers since June? Even the one's released last night only tell half of the story. There are no assessments of how likely any of these scenarios are. There is no mention of mitigation or contingencies.

Gove claimed this morning that over the past six weeks, the government had taken “considerable steps” to address the potential problems outlined in the document.

In which case Gove is surely obliged by the Grieve motion to publish details of these 'considerable steps' as they constitute part of the Operation Yellowhammer plans?

Always amusing to see leavers on here spew their "facts" with no sources, then tell others to "Google it" when challenged, and ignore anyone who presents actual evidence to the contrary. It's as predictable as the sunrise. Nice to see we've had references to the Millennium Bug as well. Has anyone conflated the EU with the ECHR yet? That's my personal favourite.

Sadly it doesn't matter that this document comes directly from BOJO's government. Leavers are still dismissing it as fearmongering. They are in a cult and will never accept they are wrong.

"And you are the complete opposite to me - you probably have an emergency grab bag packed by the door. I blame the gloomy weather you have in the North of England."
Yawn.

If the government had well thought out contingency plans common sense tells us they would be falling over themselves to release them after the release of Yellowhammer.

Why aren't they?

Not sure why June keeps being mentioned when this document is dated 2 August.

These are worse case scenarios.

I'm expecting worse demonstrations and rioting if no deal doesn't happen!

Sorry had 2 hours sleep, if brexit doesn't happen.

Havanananana
The head of the French ports has a vested interest in stating that his ports are ready. If firms begin to use other ports such as Zeebrugge or Hook of Holland, his ports lose revenue.

Well yes, but the ports you mention also trade with the UK - similarly, Portsmouth have put in infrastructure to cope with an extra 2,000 trucks per day. I don't mind which port my goods come through.

In which case Gove is surely obliged by the Grieve motion to publish details of these 'considerable steps' as they constitute part of the Operation Yellowhammer plans?

There was a government minister on Robert Peston's show last (can't remember his name) - apparently they are publishing an up to date report shortly.

@Bloomburger, have you read the thread or any news site that is not the Daily Fail? These are not the worse case scenarios. It's the base case i.e what government believe to be the most likely result of no deal.

Yellowhammer is the base scenario for No Deal - events / scenarios that are considered likely to take place after a no deal Brexit.

BlackSwan is the worst case scenario for no deal. This has NOT been released. It is likely to include things like drug, food and energy rationing, procedures for invoking the Emergency Powers Act and Martial Law planning.

Possible sceneries under Black Swan could include:
Water contamination / severely disrupted supplies.
No electricity / gas or severely disrupted supplies
No fuel in pumps leading to:
No food in shops (lorries cannot deliver)
and People unable to get to work so essential services (schools / hospitals) closed.

Rioting / breakdown of law and order
Looting
Deaths

When a society breaks down, really anything could happen. We saw what happened in three nights in the 2011 riots and how the authorities struggled to contain that. If people are desperate and hungry, it will be worse and much more widespread.

When war breaks out in a country people always remark how quickly civilised society crumbles. I don't think it's going to happen here next month - but neither did the citizens of Damascus in 2011.

Truth is, nobody knows.

Clementara21
If people are desperate and hungry, it will be worse and much more widespread.

No doubt the 38 million foreign tourists who visit the UK every year will stay away - we can eat their allocation of food.

Did they mention foreign tourists in Yellowhammer?

Portsmouth have put in infrastructure to cope with an extra 2,000 trucks per day. I don't mind which port my goods come through.

These are measures for the motorways into Portsmouth and the harbour area to cope with the additional delays to container freight traffic, not measures to increase ferry capacity by 2,000 trucks.

Well, I for one can certainly see why you would believe Gove that it's all hunky dory now. He's certainly never dismissed what is in Yellowhammer as Project Fear before. He's certainly never said that we would leave with a great trade deal. He's never changed the title on the document in question from base scenario to reasonable worst case. He's got no vested interest here.

I'll look forward to seeing what they have achieved in six weeks, considering largely the same group of people hadn't managed to resolve these issues in the previous three years, and they are still desperately trying to recruit more people from across the civil service to help them.

Is there any limit to what you will believe, if only Gove/Johnson says it?

Blackswan sounds horrendous

I went to a meeting yesterday where we were discussing this - the impact on the most vulnerable people in society is going to be huge. Financial and practical impacts. But yet again, they will be demonised by the right wing press. It's an absolute car crash. A disaster. and I can't believe that anyone is still talking in favour of any form of brexit happening. Anyone.

I really think a full breakdown in society and large scale unrest and criminality is extremely unlikely - however even the baseline scenario described in Yellowhammer is unacceptable when it could so easily be avoided

No doubt the 38 million foreign tourists who visit the UK every year will stay away - we can eat their allocation of food.

At any given time, there are about 750,000 tourists in the UK, so just over 1% of people in the country. Even if they don't come, a reduction in the demand for food of 1% is of little consequence if 50% of goods cannot get through.

Did they mention foreign tourists in Yellowhammer?

Not in the documents - but visitors will probably not want to come if there are food shortages, civil unrest, a 10pm curfew, a 2-hour queue to enter the country and a hostile environment. So that's another £27 billion a year that the UK won't be earning and another 2 million jobs in jeopardy.

Our own foreign office advises against visits to countries in turmoil. Even pretty ones. Well set up for tourism.

It’s important to remember that it is the same trucks both exporting and importing.

They don’t go out with an empty trailer and come back with a full load or vice versa as that is never cost effective. “ ye don’t drive about with your trailer bouncin!”

That means if they are delayed on one journey it will have a knock on effect for the return journey and all other journeys that week.

Lorry drivers are subject to extremely restrictive driving rules meaning they can only work for limited hours a day so any delays will have a huge impact on their ability to work. It isn’t just a case of they can sit for a few hours and it will be alright because it counts as part of their working hours. So they probably will have to park up and take their 11 hour rest period if they don’t complete the journey in time. There is already a huge driver shortage in the UK and this isn’t going to help.

So it doesn’t matter whether the queues are caused going in or going out. It matters because there will be queues.

It's all very doom and gloom but I deal with numerous emergency planning documents and they always are worst case scenarios.

What might actually save us all yet is the thing which is becoming clearer and clearer - that Brexit is not even about politics.
What it is is a massive heist.
A bunch of ruthless, unscrupulous billionaires have brought this whole thing about, purely in order to make themselves even richer. They don't care about the consequences, because they have (or believe they have) more than enough money to insulate themselves from any negative effects. They won't be going short of food, or medicine.

But there may yet be enough of a pushback that the perpetrators of this mess can actually be stripped of public office and sent to prison for what they have done - fraud and corruption on a massive scale and probably, legally, treason.