to ask you to read Operation Yellowhammer documents and see for yourself how Brexit will impact you

[chomalungma]

Just been released

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

And I wonder what Number 15 is. It's been redacted.

So much to highlight:

Impact of food and fuel prices on poorer people.
Impact exacerbated due to winter flu issues at that time of year
Lorries delayed and flow reduced to 40 - 60%

And I'm only on page 1

Yep, Juells, been wondering for some time just what on earth they’re going to do when they no longer have the evil EU to blame for every (generally home grown) failing or ill in the UK. Suppose they need to start laying the groundwork for that insidiously now. Though I’ve no doubt every trick in the book will be used to continue to blame problems on the EU as an after effect of Brexit, at least until they lose an election.

Juells

I know so we can't let him. At least Cameron argued against this bullshit. Johnson has always been for it. Its his fault, his problem, he led the brexiteers. He can deal with it. We can't get Cameron to do it now so boris will do.

Just a reminder of the indisputable facts here: this document is up to date as of 2 August, and it is not the worst case scenario that the government is planning for.

Just a reminder of the indisputable facts here: this document is up to date as of 2 August, and it is not the worst case scenario that the government is planning for.

The trouble is some people don't seem to understand the words indisputable facts. I'm sure they read it and see the words change to 'remain propaganda'

Can anyone point me to a good prepper thread? :-(

If the government obeys the no deal bill, aren't boris' literal only options to either resign, ask for an extension the eu is unlikely to give, or do another referendum quickly?

As much as I think democracy should be obeyed and we shouldnt do another referendum, its so bloody clear that these idiots have no clue and we can't trust them to make decisions for us. So we should do it for them. Hopefully remain would win.

Is this document a definite of what’s officially going to happen - as in there isn’t a shadow of doubt that this documents states these things will happen, or is it a worst case scenario document? And it’s all just guessing, preparing for the worst sort of thing?

The EU might refuse. Then we are stuck with no deal, and all that entails. If I were Macron, I would say that France will veto any request unless the government commits to a Remain / No deal referendum. Otherwise any extension isn't going to change anything and we'll be back in this position in January. I have no faith that the border issues will be resolved by then seeing as they haven't been resolved in the last 3 years.

Stalker, it's what the government thinks is most likely. Google base case scenario.

Clavinova -

Karen Wheeler, who stepped down as director general for border coordination at HM Revenue and Customs in June, told a committee of MPs the government had estimated that after a no-deal Brexit the “flow rate” of trucks exporting goods to the EU via Calais could drop to 40-60%."

Karen Wheeler is talking here about UK exports to the EU, not goods coming to the UK

You also quote James Hookham, deputy chief executive of the Freight Transport Association"

"He said the FTA did not expect major delays to EU imports because the government has said it will not carry out full customs checks at the border immediately after Brexit."

He is talking about what happens on the UK side of the border - interestingly stating that the way that the UK will take control of the border is by not carrying out full customs checks i.e. by not controlling the border. He doesn't mention what will happen on the French side of the border. In March the French customs officers held a work-to-rule action, checking the paperwork etc. of every truck leaving France. The result was queues that lasted for several days.

Is this document a definite of what’s officially going to happen - as in there isn’t a shadow of doubt that this documents states these things will happen, or is it a worst case scenario document? And it’s all just guessing, preparing for the worst sort of thing?

Its the most likely outcome of what the Government thinks will happen as a result of Brexit. It could and probably will be worse than what is stated in the document but this is the base case scenario.

Then we are stuck with no deal, and all that entails

We can still revoke.

Not that I think Boris is likely to do that. But he might be forced into a corner on it.

I really feel sorry for the civil servants who are having to work on this.

Ah, Clav - you missed out the last sentence in that quote:

He said the FTA did not expect major delays to EU imports because the government has said it will not carry out full customs checks at the border immediately after Brexit. But he said exports remained a “great unknown” and depended on the extent to which border officials in France carry out full checks.

And the next para:

The business leaders said they faced a "huge" task in communicating to their members what they needed to do to prepare for Brexit.

@StoatofDisarray , there are loads, a lot of them on the Brexit topic. "Hell is ever closer-Part 2" is the most recent. We have been talking about this for over a year.

Here you go @StoatofDisarray
Hell is ever closer - part 2 http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eureferendumm2016/3677728-hell-is-ever-closer-part-2

I might have to walk more rather than drive and spend more on food. For a few weeks.

I think it might be a bit naive to believe that food prices will subsequently go down, tbh. And walking more is fine if you're able: I can barely walk to the corner shop while I wait for knee surgery, which will no doubt be a much longer wait if no-deal happens.

I also think that the document is very light on the knock-on effect of fuel shortages. What happens when people who have no other viable option can't get to work? Even if NHS and emergency services staff are prioritised, that still leaves masses of people that are essential for service delivery. How many organisations could still function if their IT staff couldn't get in, rural schools might have to shut if teachers can't get there, public transport may suffer.

And as DP pointed out last night, if payroll staff can't get in at the wrong time of the month, no-one gets paid. (He used to work for a large payroll bureau that had hundreds of clients, paying tens of thousands of staff: many of the bureau staff routinely did 50 mile commutes to work, and the firm is in a location that is poorly served by public transport).

I can work from home (as long as the internet/mobile networks are ok) and he can walk to work, but he has staff who won't be able to get in if they can't get fuel.

And the most populated part of the UK (SE) is going to be the worst affected, apparently.

We probably don't need to worry too much.

That helpful Mr Trump will come to our rescue with deals on US medicines and foods and US dollars to buy invest in the NHS.

We will be in a terrible negociating position what with being in dire straits and with civil unrest going on but that will be Labour's fault because, reasons.

The Tories and the right are doing this for our own good, they are acting on the will of the people, they are protecting democracy, they are taking back control. They are making money and so are their friends! They are pushing a neo-liberal ideology on your behalf! What on earth are you worried about!

Ah ok. So it’s just a safe sort of guess but not definite. Fair enough.

Weight Watchers and Slimming World might feel the pinch too. A lot of people are going to stop going to the slimming groups

I think losing weight might turn out to be the least of our worries in a no-deal Brexit scenario ...

Havanananana and ContinuityError

I have just watched some of the committee meeting on Parliament TV but it keeps buffering for me so I haven't got very far. Mr Hookham (Freight Transport Association) is expecting a "smooth" flow of traffic into Dover because of the government's "pragmatic" approach to customs - however this could be affected by the turn around at Calais - depending on the import checks there - which is why Karen Wheeler (ex director general border control) talks about flow rate into Calais. Nevertheless, she keeps stating, "as at the end of June" so her data is 10 weeks out of date - when she was introduced it was pointed out that she hadn't been privy to any government papers since June.

And the head of the French channel ports has dismissed warnings of Brexit chaos on the Dover-Calais trade route as irresponsible scare-mongering by political agitators!

interestingly stating that the way that the UK will take control of the border is by not carrying out full customs checks i.e. by not controlling the border.

As far as I am aware we only carry out checks on 3% of non-EU freight now based on risk assessments.

Clav I think the issue will be how well prepared haulage companies are - for instance, the Port of Boulogne and Calais website has the following warning:

To ensure the smooth flow of traffic and offer the best service possible, it is HIGHLY RECOMMENDED that the customs declarations have been made to the French and British customs before HGVs arrive at the port of Calais or when leaving the port of Dover.

www.portboulognecalais.fr/en/brexit-the-port-of-calais-will-be-ready-will-you

If I were Macron, I would say that France will veto any request unless the government commits to a Remain / No deal referendum.

I doubt that the rest of EU would look favourably on a request to remain, now. Too much has been said. Nobody wants someone who hates them in their club.

Revoke until a proper plan is put in place. The jobless and unemployable Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins fans who were rioting last week will riot regardless as they have nothing else to do.

I’ve noticed the ride is turning in the DM comments section following the release of Yellowhammer. The more reasonable leavers are beginning to question if a commemorative 50p coin and a blue passport are worth people lives.

It could be pissing down outside and Clavinova would say it was sunny.