to ask you to read Operation Yellowhammer documents and see for yourself how Brexit will impact you

[chomalungma]

Just been released

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

And I wonder what Number 15 is. It's been redacted.

So much to highlight:

Impact of food and fuel prices on poorer people.
Impact exacerbated due to winter flu issues at that time of year
Lorries delayed and flow reduced to 40 - 60%

And I'm only on page 1

.

It just makes me cringe when people use death as an argument. People in the UK have died and been bludgeoned to death or violently attacked by people who should never ever been allowed in the UK!*

Yes because the UK chose not to have a registration system in place! In most EU countries, you need to register if you're staying longer than three months, have a job or a source of income, no criminal record, and private health insurance until you've made sufficient payments into the system.
The UK chose to do NONE of this. It's on them, not the EU.

Freedom of movement won't end, but sharing of information will become more bureaucratic, so the criminals will still get in and we will have less information and. more limited background checks.

@Septembersunrays But how can you not know! I could waste my time googling to bring up names etc but why don't you? Because you made the accusation. I’ve googled, and presented the facts which don’t seem to tally with your thesis so the onus is on you to provide some supporting evidence for your claim.

I could waste my time googling to bring up names etc but why don't you?

If it's such an important issue for you, surely you'd want to provide evidence to back up your arguments.

People have died because of the EU?
Good grief, how many millions of lives have been saved because of the peace it has ensured for decades.
I expect people have been “bludgeoned to death” by people from The Americas, Australasia, Africa, Asia, even Antarctica for all we know. So what’s the answer. Don’t let any “forriners” in?
Brilliant idea. Because we all know British people never harm each other. Until they’re hungry, don’t have medicine, enough fuel, adequate social services ........

Watsername7*

Reason is wasted.

So getting back to Yellowhammer, which has been rebranded from base case scenario in this redacted version....

Surely it doesn't just consist of five pages?

Indeed - if this is the 'reasonable worst case scenario', then there must be 'best case scenario' - what they think is most likely to happen.

Surely it doesn't just consist of five pages?

Definitely not. it's rather worrying if this is what they are ok with releasing, as it's pretty sobering. You have to wonder what else is in there that they're not ok with the public knowing.

September

And modern slavery, gang masters across eu mainly from poor former communist countries, shipping vulnerable people to work all over eu including UK.”

Report on Today Programme (Monday, I think) states largest group of “modern slaves” in UK are British citizens. What’s Brexit going to do for them? You can bet your life our human rights won’t be improved by leaving the EU’s legal jurisdiction.

That's what worries me WaterSheep it's basically the stuff that got leaked.
We need to know what it is that was released to the Welsh government. Is it the same document?

“Surely it doesn't just consist of five pages?”

That’ll be the five pages that were hastily copied and pasted when Gove got wind that his department may be forced to publish something.

I really hope that some people who want to leave with No Deal are having pause for thought.

It's hard for people to admit they got it wrong. It's hard to get people to change their mind without losing face. It's evident in doubling down on positions.

No Deal can be avoided. You can still be a Leaver but not want No Deal.

If the number of people who die as a consequence of no deal Brexit is greater than those bludgeoned to death or otherwise murdered by EU nationals in the same period of time, is it still the right course of action?

Is there anything at all that could change your mind?

I’m fairly convinced by this point that all leavers must realise what a balls up they’ve made of everything but can’t face turning around and admitting to being completely fooled by the governments promises. Something that most of us saw through straight away. Either that or they just hate their lives and would prefer everyone else was suffering with them.

As opposed to the pages that were hurriedly shredded, ohflippinghevk

Either the government are completely incompetent and 5 pages are all there is or there’s more and this is the stuff they felt they could get away with releasing. At which point we should be asking what is in the stuff they don’t think they can release.

@Zippy1510 I'm not sure they do. I think a great many of them have the same attitude as my siblings, who think "what will be will be". I'm not sure where this attitude comes from - I suspect years of feeling disenfranchised and disassociated from the political system. I can't stomach that; just sitting there and dealing with whatever happens as it comes to you. But I realise for a great many, that's all they can do.

they don’t need to worry about losing face. Would anyone really care about that? I’d shake their hand.
We have to get out of this mess and the only way is another referendum with a clear leave with a WA or remain option. A GE is too messy, too many issues in the mix.
Personally, I would revoke but I see why people need to have a choice. There needs to be a clear 60/40 result (which in light of Yellowhammer I believe there now would be). Once that’s achieved, our Government of whichever composition can get on with fixing the breakdowns which caused the 2016 result.

Like the previous poster who said my written English is so bad I must be an immigrant! Nice! Many immigrants have amazing English.

Nice try.

Now try again and read - accurately this time - what I actually wrote.

Nowhere did I say your English was ‘bad’. I entirely agree that many immigrants have excellent English. You do, however, write in a way that suggests English is not your first language.

These are worst case planning assumptions. It works on the principle of "plan for the worst, hope for the best". Its standard corporate operating process to have best case, most likely case and worst case assumptions,, and plan accordingly.
It is exactly the same principle applied by banking regulators across the world, to run stress tests. Just because we run stress test exercises to see the likely effects of China economic collapse and war between UK and Saudi Arabia (or any other country), doesn't mean we expect it to have a high likelihood of happening.

And you believe “hope for the best” is a viable Government policy? 😂😂😂

No this is the base case scenario. The worst case is Black Swan which has not been released.

These are worst case planning assumptions

No, these are base scenarios.

Don't be fooled by the change of the document name.