to ask you to read Operation Yellowhammer documents and see for yourself how Brexit will impact you

[chomalungma]

Just been released

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

And I wonder what Number 15 is. It's been redacted.

So much to highlight:

Impact of food and fuel prices on poorer people.
Impact exacerbated due to winter flu issues at that time of year
Lorries delayed and flow reduced to 40 - 60%

And I'm only on page 1

What has been published has been doctored & sanitized, over the next few weeks there will be more leaked to the press. No way is what has been published the whole document. Boris & his little gang think that they are being clever, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a court case soon as well as the one over the closing of parliament. I hope they all get punished properly this time, this could damage the Tories for a long time to come.

Weight Watchers and Slimming World might feel the pinch too. A lot of people are going to stop going to the slimming groups

Not much point going to group if you cant follow the plan because you cant get hold of fresh food SWs cook from scratch ethos is going to take a bit of a knock.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-disabled-people-impact-government-plan-a8975511.html

Add message | Report | Message posterHelenaDove Wed 11-Sep-19 18:57:34
Ministers have been condemned after admitting that they have not carried out any assessment of the impact that a no-deal Brexit would have on the lives of people with disabilities.

The government was accused of having “ignored” people with a disability after admitting that “no formal assessment” had been conducted, despite fears over a possible lack of medical supplies and health workers if Britain leaves the EU without a deal.

The revelation came in a reply to a parliamentary question from Labour MP Jo Stevens.

Responding, Caroline Dinenage, the care minister, said: “No formal impact assessment has been conducted by the department of the effect on people with disabilities of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union without a deal.”

Last year, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said he could not guarantee that no one would die if there is a no-deal Brexit.

Fears have also been raised that restrictions on freedom of movement after Brexit could prevent the UK recruiting enough carers and health workers from abroad.

And MPs have previously warned that the loss of the European Social Fund could be “disastrous” for disadvantaged groups, including people with a disability. The fund currently gives £500m a year to organisations in the UK that provide employment and training support for people who are often neglected by mainstream providers.

Ms Stevens told PoliticsHome that the response to her question “shows just how unprepared the Tory government is for leaving the EU without a deal, and how reckless the Tory leadership candidates have been in advocating one”
She added: “People with disabilities will be deeply concerned about their futures and will properly ask why the government and the candidates to be prime minister have ignored them.”

Marsha de Cordova, the shadow minister for disabled people, said: “Many disabled people face the prospect of losing out on vital medicines, funding and support as the result of a catastrophic no-deal Brexit.

“But the government is shamefully treating disabled people as collateral damage to the chaos it has created. It is disgraceful that the government continues to ignore the effect of crashing out of the EU on millions of disabled people in this country, some of whom already face destitution as a result of brutal austerity measures.

A government spokesperson said: “The government is committed to protecting the rights of disabled people and those with health conditions, supporting them into work and to live independently.

“We are preparing for all eventualities to ensure claimants continue to get the right support.”

"We were wrong to assume that Remain voters would be able to cope with losing the vote, I’ll give you that."

You were wrong to assume the Fucking govt could cope with leave winning!

"It needs to be done" that's the point it doesn't NEED to be done at all!! There's not ONE good reason for doing it at all!

I see brexit bingo has been triggered

"Just like millennium bug, etc..." HOW MANY TIMES - YEARS of prep to mitigate that!

"Well there are risks to remaining." Please DO tell me of even ONE risk of remaining that's worse than leaving?! - that isn't a load of racist bollocks?!

AskYourself I've reported your post at 2321 as it contains a vile disablist word (among other things) your argument that its undemocratic to resist leave is a nonsense!

1 the leave vote won by a VERY slim margin that in a true democracy would not have been considered a significant enough amount to carry a vote through

2 that's IF leave won which is highly debatable in terms of the conduct of the campaign and certain legal aspects

3 MP's are ejected to represent their constituents/constituencies. I live in a VERY MUCH remain constituency, I and the vast majority of other constituents here would NOT be impressed if the MP WE elected IGNORED how WE voted!

4 I'm also in Scotland which as a country voted remain but due to the fact that London alone has more voters than our whole country we are essentially disenfranchised

5 not even all leave voters want a no deal result! Among my family and friends are a variety of opinions on the matter. The arguments occurring between leave voters who want a deal and the (thankfully very few) who would venture a no deal is quite something! And that's without remainers even getting involved!

6 it's really quite astounding - we see it a lot on here - the sheer ignorance and arrogance of no dealers. I've yet to come across someone who is no deal who isn't quite wealthy and currently in good health.

"I feel people in control are Vile" how you can say that with zero irony when the alternative is having as the people in control without the eu to temper them the likes of Johnson, JRM, ids, javid, Patel,
Gove, leadsom etc is beyond me!

Also for the love of God can you PLEASE write in something resembling proper English rather than text speak?

Job losses - far far more likely if we brexit and already happening to a degree

And WHY would buying from outside the Eu be cheaper?!! At a very basic level they're having to come from further away so transport costs ALONE = higher prices (and lower quality in the case of fresh goods)

"How much of your weekly bought food shop comes from eu?" Most of it! So will yours! And the items that are APPARENTLY British rely on items from the eu - fertiliser, machine parts for farm machinery, ingredients... The ones that come from outside the Eu come VIA the eu and/or as a result of trade deals we have with those countries/retailers AS MEMBERS OF THE EU!

Think of "typically British" products - baked beans - that type of bean doesn't grow in uk
⁃ tea - not grown in uk
⁃ Bread - not enough wheat grown in uk, yeast I believe we mainly import from eu
⁃ Marmite - needs ingredients from eu
⁃ Dairy - we don't produce anywhere CLOSE to enough for our needs AND parts for milking machines mostly come from? Yep eu!

Even IF we're able to source cheaper it would probably ONLY Be cheaper due to lack of quality control and health & safety reg's! But hey, can't complain about bits of glass or metal in your food or poisonous baby formula when we got it so cheap! 🤔

"the eu is twice as reliant on us as we are on it." Utter bollocks! We have NOTHING they can't get cheaper and easier elsewhere! We are POWERLESS!

Utterly clueless!

It's the same on every thread.

'I have my reasons for voting leave but I'm not going to tell you what they are' - that's because they don't stand up to the most basic factual scrutiny.

'It's just like the millennium bug' - seriously is this utter shite STILL being trotted out?

It's seems that Gibraltar is totally fucked. But who gives a shit about those people eh?

When the first child dies as a result of this shit show there is going to be hell to pay. Quite rightly.

This document doesn't even touch the sides of the negative effects of Brexit: those will play out over the following years of decades. Much worse to come.

Well, apart from for those pool souls that die because of a lack of medication or failing care services, obviously.

But yeah, honestly most of the vocal leave voters are doubling down, that this is all project fear, or it's the Remainers fault for delaying Brexit (not only conveniently forgetting that Boris, Mogg and co voted down May's WA, but also apparently assuming this would all have gone better if only the government had had less time to plan).

It's a cult.

chocchoc your naivety about government leaks is staggering. You do realise that civil servants are obliged to serve the government of the day, right? Many of them have been working on this Brexit planning for a while now and either are frustrated with the government's lack of progress, scared to death about the future, or can see what lies ahead after working on Yellowhammer and feels the public has a right to know. This can lead to a leak from within the ranks, often through the individuals union so it can't be traced back. Spads often leak stuff too, but I reckon this was a civil servant. Investigations will take place and the person's job could be at risk. Nobody leaks lightly, but if its the only way, it can be the best option. It is very unlikely to be an accidental leak. Why would you think a leak would be inadvertent? That very rarely happens. Most leaks are deliberate.

I have a friend working on the Yellowhammer scenario project and she is exhausted and worried after learning what is likely to happen.

All this is perfect ammunition for anyone hoping to get someone to change their mind.

I wish, my dad who is generally a lovely and intelligent person keeps saying, "all we have to do is stop buying French wine"

Thank you for this thread op.

plus I bet it can all be sourced cheaper on the eu

In 2017, Mr Fox said the UK would be able to replicate 40 EU free trade deals by Brexit day. But so far the department has only been able to finalise continuity agreements with seven of the 69 countries and regions with which the EU has trade deals. These include Switzerland, Chile, the Faroe Islands, Eastern and Southern Africa, Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Not sure how much of the UK imports from these countries, but not a lot and not much of the food we currently consume.

Askyourself
You said 'I want you justify your stand point with fact and reason'

But respectfully, it seems that Remainers supply more of that than Leavers. I'm waiting to hear one positive fact in favour of leaving without a deal because I have yet to hear it.

What disruption to food flow. It’s possible but I ask this. Do you think that Tesco Asda Aldi etc are going to forsake billions a day in trading or do they already have a plan. They already bring your potatoes in from Egypt, broccoli from Africa, green beans another country etc. Trading globally already happens to provide you with a daily shop. How much of your weekly bought food sho comes from eu?

Dear lord. Regardless of origin of product or ingredient, EVERYTHING WE IMPORT COMES THROUGH THE EU. The borders are the issue, not the trade deals. People have been pointing this out for three years. How do some people still not understand this?

My son was born with a rare endocrine disorder that meant he produced too much insulin. Because it’s very rare, there are very limited treatment options and hospitals / pharmacies don’t stock the two drugs that can be used, plus they must be taken alongside other drugs to prevent dangerous levels of fluid retention caused by the first drug. For small children the tablets are turned into a liquid which has a very short shelf life.

I know hundreds of families who have a child or children with this condition. They risk coma, brain damage, stroke and death if their medication is unavailable.

This is just one condition. There are many others like it.

Please don’t tell me this is democracy. This was an advisory referendum won by a tiny margin, by a minority of the country.

You don’t just plough on with whatever people have voted for despite the consequences. That would be utterly insane.

Maybe supply these facts and actually negotiate a fucking deal BEFORE a referendum?

Ha ha - sorry but the naivety of this comment made me laugh. As if the EU would devote months of manpower to negotiating a deal BEFORE we even held a referendum!

I just worry about the medicine shortages as I work in a special school for severely disabled children and this could be a death sentence for some of them.

Personally I am already struggling money wise as I'm a single parent so we will have even less in the cupboards than we do now.

Oh chill out OP. Yes the document looks bad, and it doesn’t even reflect the worst case scenario, but it’ll be worth it for our parliamentary sovereignty* and all that extra money for the NHS!

• the all-important sovereignty of the Parliament that’s, um, just been shut down for 5 weeks so this can be forced through. Because DEMOCRACY!

No, I can't 'cope' with losing the vote. I hold my hands up - I absolutely can't. I, along with 16 million other people who voted remain, lost a vote that is has plunged all 60 million of us into crisis. Not only everything that Yellowhammer projects, but likely a hung parliament in the next general election too. Not to mention the last 3 years of this Brexit shit show having taken up 80% of parliamentary time forcing domestic issues to be ignored. Or, the civil unrest caused by splitting the country in half. All because some rich people saw a way to get richer. David Lammy was right - Brexit is a con, a lie, a fallacy.

@Frankiestein402
This is the base case scenario changed at the last minute to reasonable worst case. A base case scenario is one most likely to happen. It therefore isn’t the worst case. That’s black swan. But I don’t have the details atm. If anyone else does, please advise. Black swan covers stuff like the apocalypse, war, extreme weather causing long term disruptions etc. But this could also be the outcome for no deal Brexit.

Hasn’t the government just admitted it doesn’t have a mandate in this response?petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157 This is a petition against the proroguing Parliament.

See photo for paragraph.

You don’t just plough on with whatever people have voted for despite the consequences. That would be utterly insane.

Apparently we do, because we won and they need us more than we need them and reasons that are NEVER explained.

It's absolute madness that people are still arguing to leave. Why is the idea of winning more important than actually facing the reality of what will happen. [grr]

Woodlandwitch

“No body wants this”

Yes, they do.

“Why oh why”

Because (a) they will make a great deal of money from forward hedging or (b) they are witless morons.

The sad thing is that a lot of leavers just refuse to believe that this could happen. I imagine they will be the first on the news complaining about not been able to afford to buy food etc.

@ThomasRichard, apologies - it's hard to read tone on here at times

I see the useful idiots of brexit have been out in force overnight. The same old same old: get over it, we won, stop scaremongering. Not a single actual reason or considered argument. Just lies, sloganeering and sneering.

I loathe what you people have done to my country.

It is extraordinary that people who were lied to by Gove, Johnson et al during the referendum are not more angry than this has come out and represents the base scenario which those same people think will happen, when they said it would not. The fact that they even changed the title of the document shows how utterly thick they believe the British electorate to be. I can't understand why people don't see it.