Brexit: how scared should we be?

[staydazzling]

Theres been worries about a lot, all valid reasons medical suppliers, food unrest. People stockpiling, and now that photo on twitter about the back pack with supplies & paperwork. do we need to be prepared for the real threat of some impending civil war? how scared do we need to be?

You've been very busy telling people they are spouting rubbish though, Tabs.
You, meanwhile, 'imagine' that pharmacies are stockpiling medication.
Previous posters on this and other brexit threads, have added plenty of links and quotes from experts and those in the political arena, which are much more believable than your determination that someone, somewhere, has this all sorted.

Tabby my DH works for an extremely well known international company - I could give away a bit of relevant detail on certain topics but clearly not all without compromising his position - surely you understand that is what Bluntness is doing here?

To answer the OP, I’m pretty scared. I’m mainly scared that 2 of the medications my son needs to SAVE HIS LIFE are on the shortage list. I’m scared that when he’s hospitalised, there won’t be enough staff to save him.

As a secondary concern, I’m worried about whether my family can get through food/general import shortages, and wether we can withstand the recession that is coming.

Anyone who isn’t scared is putting way too much trust in the government. I don’t think they can tell their arse from their elbow, yet alone make such complex mitigation plans as would be necessary to avoid chaos. I don’t even believe they give a shit about us peasants. I think they’d be pretty happy filling up the body bags while they’re raking in the £ because they don’t have to adhere to EU tax legislation.

Agree with @Bluntness

@ohflippinheck You also make a good point about hairdressers and other non essentials. Its not only the fact that people wont be able to afford this if prices of essentials shoot up. If hairdressers cant source the products they need , hair dye, perm lotion etc they cant operate anyway. Its only a small thing in the scheme of things but could be enough to put a hairdresser out of business.

And i dont know why people keep insisting that people dont protest in the winter. The student protests were in NOVEMBER 2010.

People lost their shit when KFC ran out of chicken. What will happen when they cant get hold of their Christmas booze/food.

The medicine shortages are what concerns me Ditto food. And this will make obesity worse because its fresh food that there will be a shortage of.

I work in the food industry. 95% of my staff are from the EU. Recruitment and retention is a massive, massive struggle for us (the industry as a whole).

My DM and DS rely on medicines to keep them alive. Some of these are on the shortages list.

I think scared is a strong word. I wouldn't say I'm scared but I'm very, very worried. I also fear there will be real social unrest and I'm very worried about northern Ireland.

I work in the food industry. 95% of my staff are from the EU.

Why is that? Honest question, why are no British people working there?

We should put it into perspective though. No deal is now illegal.

The law states the government has to seek an extension, if they have not got a deal by Oct 19. . Not the prime minister. He doesn't have to seek it. It does not name the position or the person, Boris. It says the government needs to seek it.

What boris personally does is very critical in terms of future politics. It does not impact on whether the law will be applied before 31 Oct . The government will apply the law, even if he personally does not. That's a given.

So on Oct 31 we either leave with a deal. Or we extend. Does this mean we won't crash out at the end of the next extension period. Say JAN 31? No. It doesn't mean that. It means solely we will not crash out on Oct 31

If we get a deal life becomes very very much easier. An example is the regulations I mentioned are not immediately applicable. We will grandfather the eu ones for two years. So move on, nothing to see here.

Will the eu grant an extension. Without a shadow of a doubt yes. Macron will make the usual noise due to his own political diffilcutes, but the eu will grant it. Not least Because of the impact on Ireland. Financial as well as politically.

Will they extend for three months, who knows. I suspect they will go for longer and make it at least six months with a break clause if a deal is agreed before this. But that's guessing. All we can say is they will extend it.

All we know is we are not crashing out on 31 Oct. everything else is subjective.

The discussion is more a political one for me. If Boris and Rees mogg are keen we leave with no deal then I think they morally need to release their own documentation showing the impacts of no deal to the public.

To ensure everyone of us can Make our own decisions from a position of knowledge, and any action taken is fully transparent.

They are required by parliament to do it by 11 am tomorrow. They have said it's not in the public's interests to do so. Let's see what they do tomorrow...I'd be very surprised but very pleased if they do.

My local pharmacist, the one responsible for dispensing my prescription, said of the idea that pharmacies should stock several weeks stock, to me:

This government are fucking clueless, they know sod all about running a small business which is what 95% of pharmacies are. We will not be holding several weeks worth, or two months, or whatever this stupid government thinks is a good idea, because we can't. We can't afford it. Why should we go bankrupt just to subside a government of piss artists who can't get the simplest thing right? Not happening.

Nicely put, and accurate.

The pharmaceutical companies (and the food manufacturers, and numerous representatives of many other industries and the CBI and the Institute of Directors) said something like this when Theresa May told them two years ago now that they were expected to hold at least two months worth of stock in this country:

Prime Minister, that is just not possible. For many years now industry of all kinds has worked on just-in-time stock levels. It's at least three decades since all those huge warehouses were demolished, the railways serving them were removed and the land given over to housing or light industry. It is not possible simply to throw up the infrastructure that would be needed to implement your ideas. It would also need the pharmaceutical companies to ramp up their manufacturing processes to a level of production that they simply cannot achieve without building new manufacturing capacity. This would take years of planning and the investment cannot be justified. Even if you had spent five years in the planning, you would still not be able to achieve what you apparently expect.

Industry representatives from all areas have said a lot more than this to politicians and have said bluntly, recently, that they were deliberately being ignored, banging their heads against a brick wall.

I believe M. Macron is speaking to his domestic audience in what he has said recently; making the most of France's strength in the EU Commission against a weakening Germany. A veto on a vote to give us an extension of time would, ideally, see me dig out my Italian passport, have my cat vaccinated against rabies, sell up and leave. Despite the fact that the RICS predicts a severe drop in demand by house buyers, and a 20%-25% drop in house prices, in the first year after us leaving the EU, I'd take the capital loss if it did look financially possible. I'd have to be certain what my income would be; this is a deed that could only be done once.

Bluntness100 I've probably misunderstood but if No Deal is now illegal would the impacts of No Deal still need to be known by us if it can't happen?

Lakielake - Not sure that's a reputable website to he honest. Would never buy medication on line - you don't know what you're getting.

Bluntness100 I've probably misunderstood but if No Deal is now illegal would the impacts of No Deal still need to be known by us if it can't happen?

Valid. As it stands now it can't happen on Oct 31. Or rather if the eu refused to extend it could happen but that's not going to happen clearly, they will extend. My phrasing was bad. Legally the government needs to request an extension.

But it could happen at the end of any other extension period. This law only applies for thr oct 31 deadline. No further.

And personally I think if a politician wants no deal and us to vote for him or her, morally they should tell us what they factually know of the impacts of no deal.

I personally find it unacceptable to say "the people want no deal, so if it comes to it let's do no deal, in the name of democracy, but I will not tell you what will happen when you get that no deal as it's not in your interest to know".

I have a really big problem with that. And I don't actually understand why every single person in the uk doesn't have a problem with that stance . We should be baying in the streets to make the government release their dossier to us.

Thanks. For a minute I thought the No Deal worry was gone for good. So fed up of the worry hanging over us!

No it's not gone for good sadly. It's only gone as long as the eu extends. And till the end of that extension period if no deal is agreed.

It's like ground hog day.

It doesn't matter if the government goes batshit and doesn't apply the law. And the government is a very big beast. Made up of many many individuals. The courts will ensure the extension is sought and the law applied.

There is no risk there.

Why is that? Honest question, why are no British people working there?

Because they don't want to do the work. They either don't apply for the jobs or they apply but then don't start or they start and only work a shift or so as they aren't prepared to do the work.

The % will vary across the country. I believe that nationally the figure is 25%. In some factories the figure will be nearly 100%, and in others (the north) it will be much less.

I was at an ethical trading conference organised by a major supermarket on the day after the referendum result. There were probably about 200 senior HR personnel there all from the food industry and all supplying the supermarket. I'll never forget it. The sense of shock and 'how the hell are we going to staff our businesses now was unbelievable".

Mia1415 yes, that's what I would have expected. I think that with this and with the extraordinary arrogance and delusional self-views that we've seen through the whole Brexit debacle one of the things this country needs to realise is that, whatever causes one ascribes to it, aspects of the psyche of the English have become a problem in their own right. I speak as an English person.

So we enter want the work and we also don’t want the people who are prepared to do it

Dont

So we don't want the work and we also don’t want the people who are prepared to do it

Exactly.

I wouldn't worry about staffing business' while the Tories are in charge. As soon as staff shortages start causing major disruption they'll come up with workfare 2.0 and force the unemployed, sick and disabled to fill gaps. I wouldn't put it past them to solve the housing the crisis at the same time by setting up workhouses 2.0. Naturally, they won't be called workhouses and there'll be a slow introduction to them via the right wing press. By the time workhouses 2.0 come about the general public will be begging for them to built just like they begged for Brexit when Murdoch et al told them to.

As soon as staff shortages start causing major disruption they'll come up with workfare 2.0 and force the unemployed, sick and disabled to fill gaps

How are they going to do that?

Cut off their benefits.

The same way they did workfare 1.0 by telling people their benefits will be stopped/slashed if they don't work for Poundland for 40 hours a week for no pay. Now they've rolled all the benefits into one any sanctions will hit harder as it will involve housing costs as well.

It's Brexit, not 28 Days Later .