To wonder if there are any Leavers who would prefer no Brexit to no deal?

[Bearbehind]

I honestly don’t see where the opportunity to compromise and find a deal can come from now - Johnson has raised the rhetoric too much, so it looks like no deal or no Brexit.

Reading posts from Remainers lately (and I’m a Remainer but don’t really understand this), there’s still an insistence that Leavers don’t all want no deal.

Whilst I agree it wouldn’t have been most people’s first choice, I don’t see any evidence that they’d prefer to avoid it, even if that mean no Brexit

So would any Leavers prefer not leaving to No Deal?

atmos believe me, I’ve been where you are - trying to convince others of what you see as being so obvious, but that’s the whole problem here.

In 3 years Leavers haven’t been convinced, they claim to put leaving the EU above all else. That’s not going to change at this stage.

From here the only solution I can see is to give them what they want and see what happens.

At least that way, if it does go to rat shit as predicted, we get to start repairing it sooner rather than later.

But ratshit In NI is a whole different lot of ratshit.

In 3 years Leavers haven’t been convinced, they claim to put leaving the EU above all else. That’s not going to change at this stage...From here the only solution I can see is to give them what they want and see what happens.

My fear is that Brexiters in general don't seem ready to accept that Brexit was a bad idea, and many are gearing up to blame the EU for not giving us the deal we deserve.

If we dont get out now we will be spending the next decade fighting to get out. The hatred will get worse and the damage to our country will get worse.

And of course we will do our utmost to disrupt and paralyse the EU in the meantime.

Think I'd prefer no deal at the moment, as worried any deal means us continuing to pay millions to the EU for years.

But brexit and especially no deal is so so much more expensive!
Sorry, but money can't be the reason.

And of course we will do our utmost to disrupt and paralyse the EU in the meantime.

Sadly, you guys want to be the EU 's enemies. You won't be happy until they take you seriously as such.
Careful what you wish for.

The thing is the so called experts have got it so very wrong before: they said our economy would collapse if we did not adopt the euro.

We were told the day after we voted to leave EU unemployment would skyrocket, property prices would plummet. Unemployment is lowest it has been in 27 years. Property prices are stable.

It is just scaremongering tactic they use to try to make people vote how establishment want you to vote. Even Carney has had to admit he was wrong. He is one of the so called experts who are constantly wrong.

My fear is that Brexiters in general don't seem ready to accept that Brexit was a bad idea, and many are gearing up to blame the EU for not giving us the deal we deserve

^^this

*atmos believe me, I’ve been where you are - trying to convince others of what you see as being so obvious, but that’s the whole problem here.

In 3 years Leavers haven’t been convinced, they claim to put leaving the EU above all else. That’s not going to change at this stage.

From here the only solution I can see is to give them what they want and see what happens.

At least that way, if it does go to rat shit as predicted, we get to start repairing it sooner rather than later.*

I'm almost at this point too, yet I can't stop trying to convince leavers though quite yet, do I give up? I would be bereft at what will happen then

My fear is that Brexiters in general don't seem ready to accept that Brexit was a bad idea
Where is the proof of this? Brexit hasn't happened yet so there is no proof it 'was' a bad idea.

Lets try it first and then make a decision and then Brexiters will make their minds up if it is a good or bad thing.

"'no deal' is just WTO which is how most of the world trades"

I would sincerely love to be shown that that most brexiteers knew their stuff and just held genuinely different opinions based on in-depth knowledge of the situation. I really would - it would make me feel better about this shitshow. But on threads like this I repeatedly read verifiable nonsense such as the comment above with shocking regularity. Not a single country in the world trades on WTO rules. Not a single one. And yet we have people cheerfully braying for economic suicide based on total sheer bloody ignorance. I could weep.

(should read *WTO rules alone)

This 'no deal' talk often indicates a lack of understanding of what the discussions were about. The Withdrawal Agreement was about the terms of our departure and an interim period after our departure. It was not a deal on our future arrangement. People like @tequilasunrises friend probably thought that we would be negotiating a future trade deal before leaving, so that everything dovetailed nicely. That would be great for lots of people both in the UK and elsewhere in the EU, but the EU have categorically said they will not negotiate a future trade deal with us util after we have left.

If the last 3 years had been spent coming up with a fantastic deal that somehow keeps goods and services flowing freely across boarders, while also exiting the UK from the ECJ etc then there wold be no need for. backstop and no need for any upset now. However, despite regulatory alignment, the EU is going to really struggle to maintain the sanctity of its 4 freedoms and central institutions and agree a comprehensive trade package with the UK in a short space of time, so reduced trade and tariffs are very likely.

@Frogsoup Me too.

Earlier in the thread I queried a poster's understanding of the leaving process when she claimed Best to leave with a simple free trade agreement and scrap Withdrawal Agreement that restricts us from moving on. It is so frustrating to see people who have a clear and demonstrable misunderstanding of the process spouting complete nonsense.

Not a single country in the world trades on WTO rules. Not a single one

Can I politely amend this as it's partially correct. Not a single country in the world trades only on wto. We would be literally the only country. Every single country as summplementary trad deals where it matters.

And trading on wto means we need to legally protect our border. It's a legal requirement, which means a hard border in Ireland. As we have no alternate on the table. None.

There is no alternates that exist globally. They looked at every single border there was in the last two years. The back stop gave them two years post leaving to find an alternative before the hard border went in. Parliament rejected it because the risk was too high of a hard border going in and us nit being able to find a solution in that time period.

Yes I forgot to put the word 'alone' - as in, it should have said 'no country trades on wto rules alone' (I amended it in the next post).

And as I understand it, just over half of all global trade is on the basis of agreements rather than on WTO rules (see fig 8b)

unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ditctab2019d1_en.pdf

Bluntness I'm going to unashamedly follow you all around mnet as you speak such good sense and write so calmly in the face of some total idiocy.

*frogsoup" that absolutely wasn't aimed at you as saw your immediate amendment.

OK, Leavers. For the sake of argument, let's say that all food and travel and medicine and Irish border issues can be sorted out, so there's no Big Shock on leaving. It'll all be fine.

BUT - 'leaving' is not even the start of the start of what then has to happen. Don't you see that EVERY SINGLE BIT of gvt attention, for years and YEARS will be focused on the EU - making sure that we can still trade well with them; lobbying them so that the rules that they make, which we MUST abide by if we want to sell to them, aren't catastrophic for us - and on making all the other trade agreements we need.

And in putting into law thousands upon thousands of things that we just want to keep as they are, but which depend on withdrawn legislation.

WHY OH WHY is this a good use of our years? There is no world in which we can 'just get it done'...

I think Boris and Trump have it that we would be dealing with U.S. and the EU would be treated as the poor relation. That's if Boris can stop doing PR bits with stunt puppies and schools (I've noticed he is doing any appearance except with his own MPs..)
There are several problems with this.

First, it presupposes Trump getting re-elected in a year's time. It's unlikely we'll get a trade deal sewn up before then. The democrats have already indicated that in the event of a No Deal Brexit, we cannot expect a good trade deal from them if they are in power.

Secondly, it supposes a good trade deal with the US if Trump stays in power (or if a deal can somehow be thrashed out in record time while he is fighting a re-election campaign). Trump has two options, either getting a good deal for the US (with the NHS and chlorinated chicken etc on the table), which is likely a bad deal for us, or give us a great deal with a view to destabilising the EU. Trump is emotionally driven so who knows what he will go for in the heat of the moment. Given so many Brits have protested him previously, there's a decent chance he'd love to stick his stubby middle finger up at us once we go begging to him.

Thirdly, while the US is still the largest economy in the world, a trading deal with the US is just one trading deal. If any future trade deals with other major economies are bad, then it negates any benefit from a good US deal. We will get a bad deal from the EU, that's practically a given, and No Deal leaves us in such a desperately weak negotiating position that I wouldn't count on improving many of our current relationships with other countries (and any deals will likely take years to negotiate, causing significant damage even if we ultimately obtain similar terms to those we currently have...which we likely won't).

We're pretty fucked.

In fact, I hadn't appreciated that the Dems can block a trade deal even without the presidency- it requires congressional approval.

www.politico.eu/article/nancy-pelosi-says-no-uk-us-trade-deal-if-brexit-risks-irish-peace/amp/

Unless Pelosi is all hot-air (and that is not the impression she generally gives me); I think we'll have a real difficulty getting a trade deal with the US, in the event of a No Deal Brexit, prior to next year's elections.

Then, the UK would have to hope that not only does Trump get re-elected, but that the Republicans take back congress. Personally I think Trump has a less than 50% chance or re-election and the Republican's prospects of taking Congress are extremely slim.

If a version of the WA gets past, the situation becomes easier, but obviously complex international trade deals still usually take a long time to agree.

But we'll be desperate enough that maybe we'll have shortened, if humbling, negotiations.