To wonder if there are any Leavers who would prefer no Brexit to no deal?

[Bearbehind]

I honestly don’t see where the opportunity to compromise and find a deal can come from now - Johnson has raised the rhetoric too much, so it looks like no deal or no Brexit.

Reading posts from Remainers lately (and I’m a Remainer but don’t really understand this), there’s still an insistence that Leavers don’t all want no deal.

Whilst I agree it wouldn’t have been most people’s first choice, I don’t see any evidence that they’d prefer to avoid it, even if that mean no Brexit

So would any Leavers prefer not leaving to No Deal?

If you think GFA can change in a couple of weeks, you are naive. I didn't say that, though

And yes, there are plenty of people who think No Deal means very little changes More fool them, but not my experience. Which holds little national currency!

Hey? You havent respinded directly to me yet, have you?

Yes, I have on several occasions.

The question isn't really whether people want no deal. That's the wrong question, I'm sorry op.

The question is will people be happy to live with the consequences of no deal. The reality of it. When it impacts them or theirs. When they loose their job, or their child does, or their spouse. When their house is at risk, when waiting lists escalate in the nhs and they can't get their operation or their medication. When their child can't.

So that's the question. Will they willingly endure these things, the consequences of no deal. The Wealthy, won't be impacted, but can others take the hit, watch others take it. And know they voted for it and still stand by it.

So yeah, it's the wrong question, the question is will you willingly live by the consequences of it.

3) is contradictory with 1) But doesn't have to be. If, as is usual when changes occur, all sides agree to re-draw tems and agreements. It seems to be an emotional and political NO! at the moment.

I would be really interested to know what people think will be better after we leave (deal or no deal). Genuinely what are the motivating factors? I would really like to know what improvements people believe there will be.

Our trade deals will be in all probability less advantageous.
We voted for MEPs as we do MPs.
Our institutions/lives generally are controlled by the forces of global capitalism which will be trickier to navigate as a single country.
Our national finances aren't like a domestic bank account where the money we 'save' from not paying the EU can go on something else.
I don't know what 'taking back control' means in reality.

I accept we are leaving but I want some one to cheer me up with an example of something that will be better.

No, you have posted stuff that doesn't answer my questins, nor have you shown me anything that proves your assertions Atmos That was my point, there isn't anything either side can point to as irrefutable proof...

There is no balanced discussion possible, leavers get shown all the evidence from all the experts that it's going to be a shit show. They reply - don't care, still want to leave!

Wasn't it Jacob Rees Mogg who said it may take up to 50 years to see the economic benefits of Brexit? That's a potentially very long time (of course, it will make no odds to him, he's wealthy and has moved all his business domiciles out of the UK - wonder why?). Even Farage has said he never claimed that Brexit would be beneficial.

These are the things that people struggle with - if it''s not beneficial, why do it?

Identifying area of risk is sensible, not a declaration of catastrophe!

Again, you're creating something nuanced into something black-white.

Can you briefly explain how, if we make it more difficult to trade with our neighbours, it won't be more difficult to trade with our neighbours?

I know that is circular, but that is because it is. No deal means we won't have an agreement with our biggest trading partner, making it more difficult to trade. Meaning it will be more difficult for goods, medicine, etc to enter the country.

My only consolation is that all the evidence points to those who voted leave being the ones who suffer most in case of a no deal, although there will be an awful lot of innocent collateral damage!

That was my point, there isn't anything either side can point to as irrefutable proof...

You're asking for irrefutable proof, but you don't seem to be listening or engaging. First, irrefutable proof of the future is not possible. Second, please try and engage with the question of how breaking our arrangements with our largest trading partner won't cause significant disruption.

Bluntness I would probably agree, but even some of the short term fright stories are guess work! My point was that a poster was making defnitie statements and, like veryone else, expert or not, cannot 'prove' them. So much of the angry to'ing and fro'ing is based on emotion, opinion and conjecture.

I just want somewhere to have a less fraught, more open debate about this. Politicians don't seem to be able to. Variou sorganisations don't seem to be able to publish anything that isn't dissected and used as a Big Stick... what chance to we, the electorate have of ever making a properly informed decision?

I also despair at leavers still clambering for a good deal. The so called people’s prime minister aka Bozo lied. It isn’t possible and it would be great if leavers could answer the question. I’d like to be a multi millionaire but that’s not going to happen either.

I am listening Atmos But you keep making pretty definite asserertions

First, irrefutable proof of the future is not possible. That was why I was asking you... I know there isn't, which is why I refrain from making defintiive statements!

Second, please try and engage with the question of how breaking our arrangements with our largest trading partner won't cause significant disruption. And I haven't said it won't. It will. But I don't think it will necessarily be as catastrophic as some others, yoursefl seemingly included, keep stating it will be! There are other opportunities. We should be looking to them, as well as ensuring we get a good Brexit deal!

Understanding how that canbe done means not backing ourselves into corners using unproven statements to do so!

I would probably agree, but even some of the short term fright stories are guess work

Why do you continue to believe this? The truth is they are not. Much of what's been leaked to the press is factual. There is no way round this. The fact the government won't release the dossier gained from critical companies should tell you everything you need to know. If it contained any good news that refuted those stories don't you think they'd publish it in a heart beat? Why would they withhold information because "it's not in the public's interests" if it made no deal in any way shape or form acceptable?

So much of the angry to'ing and fro'ing is based on emotion, opinion and conjecture.

I think you're using a (knowingly or unknowingly?) dishonest debating technique, which I've seen in other areas. We can't "prove" with absolutely certainty that climate change is caused by more CO2, or that we share a common ancestor with chimpanzees, or whatever, but we can look at the evidence. Because it's not possible to "prove" these things, doesn't mean they're based on opinion.

I still would like a response to how you think scrapping our arrangements with our biggest trading partner won't make trade more difficult and cause disruption. Or how adding tariffs to the goods we buy won't make us poorer.

Curious, do you not listen to the TV or the radio..the drugs industry, the food industry, hauliers, universities, the banks, the car industry, the farmers ..It's not a balanced argument because the leavers cannot produce anyone apart from couple of second rate politicians who think leaving is anything like a good idea

But I don't think it will necessarily be as catastrophic as some others, yoursefl seemingly included, keep stating it will be!

I haven't said that. What I've said is that government says there are risks of wide spread disruption, based on their analysis.

There are other opportunities. We should be looking to them, as well as ensuring we get a good Brexit deal!

But these other options do not yet exist, despite claims that we would have trade deals in place.

Understanding how that canbe done means not backing ourselves into corners using unproven statements to do so!

Every time you write "unproven" I think you're not understanding things. We cannot prove the future. But we should rely on the best analyst available to us. Being unable to prove the future is not an excuse for inaction or shrugging and saying "no-one knows"

It isn’t possible and it would be great if leavers could answer the question. Nobody can! Whatever the Brexit question actually is! It isn't one politicians fault. It isn't a case of right and wrong. It is a political battle in a war that probably won't be decisively won.

We are at a stalemate... and politicians are supposed to avoid those!

One better question for going forward it "What can we do to tel parliament that we don't approve and want them to do better?" I can't hink of anything more than removing myparty vote and choosing an independent, single issue candidate!

Oh dear. I had hoped this could be a simple thread just answering the question.
I was trying to steer us back to the original point - to reiterate - if I understand this correctly, there is a significant number of MPs who would prefer no Brexit to no deal and since they are currently in command of what happens next, they are the important ones now - unless/until "the people" get asked again in some way.

@CuriousaboutSamphire

I absolutely was NOT saying that poorer less well educated people are more racist.

I was replying to the PP who had a list of characteristics that remainers think leavers have, it was a long list, and I couldn’t remember all the exact terms.

There are racists in every walk of life, and regardless of their social standing, I dislike racists and racism.

My point was that very generally those less well off and less well educated voted leave and generally those better off and with higher levels of education voted remain as the graphs show. Now the question is: is that cause, or effect?

I think you're using a (knowingly or unknowingly?) dishonest debating technique, which I've seen in other areas. That's nice. Seeing as I am trying to get you to avoid doing something similar!

I haven't made any claims. Nor have I said I know the answers. Like you say we have no other deals in place, we can't it is impssible to do that from within the EU. But other countries have been approached and have indicated their willingness to deal.. THAT is what has been going on behind the scenes, civil service diplomats etc

I am fully ware that our parliament has argued itself to a standstill and doesn't seem like changing any time soon!

Every time you write "unproven" I think you're not understanding things. As a scientist, earned my living at it for decades, that made me smile I think we are posting across each other all the time. You seem to think I have said I have an answer... I don't.

I don't even have a firm opinion on most Brexit related things, The only thing I know is that there is no simple answer and arguing on mumsnet is unproductive... hot air, signifying nothing!

My point was that very generally those less well off and less well educated voted leave and generally those better off and with higher levels of education voted remain as the graphs show. Now the question is: is that cause, or effect? Which is a much better question, apologies for not having gleaned that from your origial post!

I think you're using a (knowingly or unknowingly?) dishonest debating technique, which I've seen in other areas. We can't "prove" with absolutely certainty that climate change is caused by more CO2, or that we share a common ancestor with chimpanzees, or whatever, but we can look at the evidence. Because it's not possible to "prove" these things, doesn't mean they're based on opinion.

Very dishonest that you would compare economic forecasts which are fraught with uncertainty and political bias with the theory of evolution, which as you'll know complete nutcases seek to discredit on the basis of being a theory in the scientific sense.

Very dishonest indeed.

The fact the government won't release the dossier gained from critical companies should tell you everything you need to know. Which sounds like a conspiracy theory. Or comes from a place of Social Meiia immediacy! Of course they may choose not to publish... we don't have the right to see everything!

BIlly You are right. I live in isolation... ^pshaw!