To think Boris would win a general election

[HoneyIgrewthekids]

Well that really, Im a big remainer but I cant help but feel that at an election Bojo would win and win big. Its depressing and I cant see how anyone could vote for him but I see him winning a majority at the polls especially since the remain vote is split.

Aibu

That's interesting lovegrowswhere!

I'd be interested to hear which seats people think the Tories might pick up and any potential coalitions. Really the only parties who are likely to enter into any kind of agreement with them are the Brexit Party and the DUP. The latter pretty much maxed out on their seats last time, given the NI demographics. I guess Fermanagh and South Tyrone is always a close one but the Catholic percentage of the population in that area is slightly increasing. Same with North Belfast, where the DUP majority has been shrinking and which likely is going Sinn Fein at some point. Pengelly in south Belfast will probably lose if even one of the other non-Unionist parties have the sense to sit it out so as not to split the anti DUP vote so much. Sylvia Hermons seat might be up for grabs if she doesnt sit again?

My local mp has had a sex scandal voted against local issues supported dodgy people and still gets elected I'm wondering what exactly he needed to do to lose the other candidates are hardworking local supporters 🤷‍♀️

When you look at possible results for a general election, you have to look at the 100 marginals. Safe Labour or safe Conservative rarely change hands. UKIP have won nothing much down the years and the Brexit party will split the Tory vote if they contest Tory seats. That’s why Boris was chosen and why he’s all about leaving without a deal. It secures his core seats.

What the Tories now have to do, is win seats back from Labour and possibly the Lib Dem’s. Scotland might be a lost cause. They don’t need very many. I don’t know which seats they will target, but I would assume leave voting marginals are top of the wish list.

Labour were foolish to elect Corbyn and would have a better leader in Starmer. Labour’s big problem is that they don’t appeal to the middle ground tax payers with Corbyn and in Labour seats, with a Leave majority, they might be in trouble.

The reason Labour would be foolish to agree to an election is that Boris could change the date to November. We will leave the EU with No Deal which Boris is wanting as there is no evidence of any negotiation to get a deal. No one in the EU thinks we are serious about negotiating and we have not put forward any alternative proposals. Boris has lied his way through Parliament and still people believe him! Unbelievable! But the electorate is ultra gullible I’m afraid.

Not sure if it has been mentioned but there is a tactical voting group going on Facebook, "Tactical Voting in the 2019 General Election".

It's run by people from all parties, and no tribalism allowed!

smile, I think there will be a good number of us campaigning in seats outside our own. I hear Uxbridge is nice in autumn!

He has no competition to stop him, flip flop Corbyn can’t make up his mind if he wants an election or not, so at best it would be another coalition. Lots of MPs are about to become unemployed though if there is one

Corbyn has specifically said he'll support an election once the legislation to stop no deal is approved by the Queen. This was due to the risk of Lords filibustering the deal and Boris using the election to further porogue parliament.

Everytime I wonder if Corbyn would really be as bad as people say, I see people accusing him of made up stuff, using half facts and twisted truths.

Still, if we can't get a remain win, I would like a big hard right Tory / brexit win. I want them to take 100% of the blame for the excess deaths, unemployment, poverty and disruption not be able to blame the opposition.

I think Scotland probably is a lost cause for the Tories now. The Scots really don't want to leave the EU and not one of their MPs rebelled the other night.

Labour's bigger problem currently is convincing Remain voters to stay with them. We know now that the basis of Labour's improved performance in 2017 was Remainers thinking they were the best bet to stop Brexit. They'll need to focus on seats with small majorities over candidates from outright Remain parties.

Yes I think Boris would win. He seems very unpopular in parliament and on MN but I think all the rubbish he spouts goes down very well with many people.

There is a massive divorce between what Boris wants you to believe and what he is doing. The thing that never ceases to surprise and disappoint me is the abysmal reporting of allthis on the press. There are some decent MPs in parliament so there is hope there - but the press is hopelessly partisan and dumb.

Yes the influence of the press is massive

Anyone saying Labour needs to get rid of Corbyn can't be very familiar with the process. Too much sodding democracy!

It's going to be another hung parliament. Johnson would have had a much better shot at a majority if he hadn't just converted the Tories to an English version of France's National Front. Polling shows Tories basically wiped out in Scotland and they are going to lose a lot of votes in the commuter belt, which is mostly pretty Remain and not normally big on hard right nationalism.

Dominic Cummings, the greatest political strategist since Nick Timothy (the man who fucked up Theresa May's majority in 2017), thinks they can pick up a lot of northern seats. But as lots of people have pointed out, even in Leave-voting Labour constituencies, most of the Labour vote isn't Leave, so it's not really clear where the votes will come from to overturn most of the Labour majorities. Cummings was reportedly asked by Spads a couple of days ago about what the strategy was to pick up extra seats and where they would be, and he couldn't give any details.

Obviously, Labour's genius strategy of trying to look Leave-y to Leavers and Remain-y to Remainers, while being led by a man who most voters think is useless but his acolytes think is the messiah is going to cost them a shitload of seats too.

So, hung parliament, as things stand at the moment. But if the election happens in November, once the Brexit deadline has passed and Johnson has either had to cave and seek an extension (pissing off the headbangers and making an electoral pact with the Farage fascists a non-starter) or has plunged us into the utter disaster of no deal, he's going to be completely fucked. If he can get an election through before 31 October he can sit tight for 5 years and no-one will be able to touch him, however much damage he's done with no deal, or even if he's gone back on his word and revoked or got an extension.

Yeah, Corbyn isn't going to go until he's been clearly and conclusively beaten in an election. That does not necessarily mean the same as not winning either. If for example they were the second largest party again but were able to win more seats than 2017, I could see him trying to cling on even longer. He's like a limpet.

my dad is worrid cummings has this planned all along.hes the most vile man and that he will no exactly how to play this.which scares me even more so as if some vile man is behind knowing exactly how to get his win just waiting in the wings for th right time to trap us.

I think there will be a covert arrangement between cons and Brexit party to help the latter oust labour in leave voting northern and midland seats.
Cons hold their heartland. They lose Scotland and probably in a few places to LD.
Might get him home? If he pulls it off I’ll take my hat off to him much as I loathe the man.

Since Trump won an election, I have little faith in electorates any more.

I think you’re absolutely right because people are fucking morons.

Morons or not, they've got votes, so I'll be campaigning for Labour (despite JC)

Jo Johnson is MP for Orpington, where the majority voted Leave. Perhaps Jo, like Philip Lee who was about to be deselected, was jumping before pushed (by his constituency, not by Boris).

Just because a constituency voted Leave, doesn't mean those voters all want to leave without a deal. Most people were told that leaving would be swift and easy and we would be better off for it. No evidence of that so far, and certainly no evidence that a no deal Brexit would be pain free and make us better off either. The vote was three years ago and things have not exactly turned out as expected. We can guess how people might think now, but the only way to really know is a peoples vote.

As an aside, I think other parties were in the right to wait it out. Agree that I don't think much would change with an election, but I would hope the threat of no deal on 31st of October would be gone at least. I also want to base my vote on more than Brexit. What about other issues that need addressing in the future when this has (hopefully) disappeared? To make an election all about Brexit (which it will be) is very short sighted.

In all fairness to the Americans, Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million, which is rather a lot. Blame their political system.

I think the Torries will be the largest party but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that they will have a majority (even via a coalition).

And yes, the influence on the press is of course massive, you only need look at the 'Corbyn running scared' narrative. Of course Corbyn wants a GE, as do all opposition parties, but they're strong-arming Boris into getting the anti no-deal legislation through first.

It's an (unusually good) tactical move on Corbyn's part but stick a photoshop of him as a chicken on the front of the Sun and the narrative is set for many.

I don’t think it is that easy to predict. Johnson wants to be able to campaign on a hard Brexit ticket - hence his expulsion of the 21 so if he wins a general election with a majority he will be able to push through what he wants as they won’t rebel.

However Conservatives who are remainders and more moderate Conservatives voters are going to find it hard to vote for him and some of his vote will go to the Brexit Party anyway. The Lib Dems will almost certainly make ground in any marginal Conservative seat that is heavily in favour of remain. Conservatives will hold any safe seats that voted leave.

The problem is Labour - they haven’t really come out one way or another - remain or leave. Corbyn must have splinters. They will be in danger in leave marginal constituencies and also in remain marginal constituencies. They will probably hold their safe seats. Somewhere, someone will be doing the maths, but in all likelihood we’re going to end up with a hung parliament.

I completely agree OP. The fact Corbyn won’t agree to it shows he knows it too

It really doesn't. Corbyn won't agree because he knows Labour voters would never forgive him for so blatantly allowing No Deal.

I think Scotland probably is a lost cause for the Tories now. The Scots really don't want to leave the EU and not one of their MPs rebelled the other night.

Interestingly that Norman chap on the Beeb said at lunch time that the SNP 's position is significant now because they want an election as thy feel their time has come so they may inadvertently end up supporting Boris!

he knows Labour voters would never forgive him for so blatantly allowing No Deal
A lot of labour voters will never forgive him for all the messing around he's been doing. Labour are losing their heartlands. Corbyn doesn’t care about the non middle class Labour voters

Have you bothered to read the thread @Kiddofreddo80? There’s a very good reason Labour’s not backing a GE before 31 October.