To think it is now inevitable that Scotland will become independent?

[amandacarnet]

With brexit and the increasing move to the right wing, I think it is now just a matter of time until Scotland becomes independent.

As things stand, there will have to be a hard border indefinitely.

It is a question of law, not ‘seen as’.

A referendum without assent from Westminster wouldn’t merely be ‘seen as illegitimate’, it would be illegitimate. As in, it would not have legal force and would not be overseen by the Electoral Commision.

Who would run it? Who would pay for it? It would be meaningless and illegal.

So I ask again, how are the SNP going to get their legal referendum?

Pamper what do you actually mean by a hard border?

Also read a very detailed long story in the Financial Times about Iceland and how they dealt with the banking crises. The FT that left wing newspaper said that the way it dealt with the banking crisis meant that its economy rebounded much more quickly than economies like Britain.
Well of course they did. They took the free market approach and let the weak fail. The UK took the socialist approach and intervened.

Goods and passports being checked. There has to be a hard border, under EU rules, if Scotland is in the EU and England isn't. Also I think under WTO rules. I'm no expert, but they say that all the time on the Westministenders thread.

As long as one minor detail can be sorted I.e. Who will their bank of last resort be?

If they want independence, good for them, Faslane will be a ghost town as well

Yes I agree if Scotland is in the EU and England is not, then passports need to be checked. But we don't know yet if Scotland would even want to join the EU. And Britain has not left the EU.
It is also possible a special deal could be worked out with the EU involving Scotland and England.
Basically there are so many unknowns that no one can declare there would need to be a hard border.
And if there was, it could be a quick border stop on the A 1 and motorway. Yes it would take some money to set up and be a slight delay to travellers, but it need not be a big deal.

Goth propping up failed banks is a very capitalist solution. It is based on free market. You let banks do what they want and when they take the piss, you bail them out because you are too worried about the massive impact their failure has.
But the original point I made was that government can decide whether to let banks fail or not.or even better, introduce some proper regulation in the first place.

It’s just not going to happen.

Scotland is not in a good place financially. Advocates of independence will tell you that’s not everything (which is true) but there is no suggestion that there is the intellectual leadership either.

Poor finances, poor education stats, poor life expectancy, faster ageing population than rUK, resources very spread out (so it costs a lot more money to get between them). There are a lot of challenges.

Yes there is poor life expectancy and education stats.
Although if people think an independent Scotland can do better, then that is no reason to stay.
Perhaps financially it would not be a good idea. Not convinced either way on that though. When I read up on it last time, both sides lied about the finances, or at least exaggerated.
The idea though that Scotland has not got the intellectual capacity when you look at Nicola sturgeon versus Boris Johnson, is just laughable though. At the moment sturgeon is a far better politician than Johnson in terms of capacity to actually run a country.

It's a possibility for sure, IF we are even allowed to hold another referendum. To be honest we shouldn't be. It's a democracy, not 'vote until some people get the answer they want' society. If it had been yes, would we no voters have been allowed to call for another referendum to double check? I doubt it. How many do we hold as well? Best out of 3? If its a no again, will the yes voters accept it then or do we just keep voting and voting? It's not exactly been a long time since we last voted on it.

Im not sure sturgeon would win anyway. An alarming amount of people seem to hate her. The last election showed that, with a constituency outing Angus Robertson, her right hand man at the time, and another one outing Alex salmond. They lost a lot of support and seats, and even she realised that independence needed to take a back seat. Which it did for all of what, 5 mins?

I dunno, it's a 50/50 isn't it? Might leave, might not. I'm going to be pretty pissed off though if she loses yet again and then insists on yet another vote. But I think if she does her own party might get rid of her.

Incidentally as someone who has been on the fence, it has always been the remain side that has treated me like a stupid woman. Comments such as the one upthread when I talked about Iceland, not to believe everything I see in a meme is typical. And that commenter still hasn't acknowledged that I was in Iceland at the time, reading their newspapers and publications like the FT about it.
In the same way I got most of my media information about brexit from the FT.
I do think there is a lot of misogyny in these discussions..

Blue oasis if there was another referendum and they lost, that really should be it for a very long time. I agree it should not be vote until you get the results you want. But brexit does change things.

“A referendum without assent from Westminster wouldn’t merely be ‘seen as illegitimate’, it would be illegitimate. As in, it would not have legal force and would not be overseen by the Electoral Commision.”

Utter utter drivel. Advisory referendums which are not legally binding are not by default “illegitimate.”

Why do you think you know about this?

You then go on to say it would be “illegal”. Do you know what illegal means?

The Electoral Commission is not a statutory body, it is optional. It is simply the overseer people mostly choose and is not a requirement. It was agreed upon with the section 30 Order last time.

What on Earth makes you think you understand this issue?

SCOTTISH civil servants are furious after Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay ruled they would no longer go to meetings in Brussels from next week to discuss fishing, agriculture and other devolved issues. Barclay made the decision without consulting or informing the Scottish Government, leaving its officials learning of the development through press reports, according to Edinburgh insiders

Yeh - the UK government really gives a shit about Scottish issues! Insane to stay in the Union.

“There has to be a hard border, under EU rules, if Scotland is in the EU and England isn't. Also I think under WTO rules.“

That’s a complete lie. How many EU countries border Switzerland?

“Faslane will be a ghost town as well”

Faslane will be Scotland’s naval centre, after you pay us a massive rental for 10 years to hold on to your nukes there and and Coulport.

“To be honest we shouldn't be. It's a democracy, not 'vote until some people get the answer they want' society. ”

Yes we fucking should. Every single promise that was made to keep us in the Union was broken.

God, I hope so.

The border between Switzerland and the EU is totally different. Switzerland is in Schengen, fgs. There is no comparison between Switzerland, with its very close ties to the EU, and a country that has no dealed.

It's ridiculous to pretend that Brexit has not changed anything. The biggest change to the UK since WWII, and you don't think Scotland should be allowed another referendum?
I agree that Scotland is very poorly governed. But with the nightmare of what is happening in the UK, I think Yes would win if there were another vote.

What has struck me about the whole Brexit debate is how Conservative MPs in Westminster aren’t really bothered about maintaining the Union any more.

I agree that I think another referendum in Scotland would probably mean that yes would win. I also think the same would happen in Northern Ireland, especially as it seems more and more likely we will have a hard Brexit and no backstop.

I think the negotiations needed after a vote for independence would be really complicated - things like currency, defence, fishing rights - but I think that they would not dissuade a majority of people in Scotland from voting yes.

DdraigGoch
They took the free market approach and let the weak fail. The UK took the socialist approach and intervened.

The Icelandic banking crisis happened while there was a Liberal/Conservative government in power. They did try and nationalise one of the banks. Then when it became clear that was not going to work, the government’s whole approach, as Amandacarnet says, became incredibly interventionist. Later, when a general election was held the following April, the Social Democrats won, partly because voters were angry with free market economics. Overall, the approach taken in Iceland by the Progressives/Independents was much more interventionist than the approach taken by Labour in the UK so I don’t think describing it as free market versus socialist is accurate.

Yes I do believe Scottish independence will happen in the next 2- 3 years. Ireland will be united as a federal country in the next 5-8 years and I hope Wales will be independent soon after.

@StreetwiseHercules

You state "Standard and Poors (global ratings agency” believe a Scottish currency and government would have AA plus rating, like New Zealand’s"- Can you please show your up to date source for this - ?.

Scotland currently has a £12 billion deficit- and benefits from a fiscal transfer of nearly £2000 per person- This is caused not by the Scottish economy doing badly - but by a far higher spending on the Public sector - How are you going to address that black hole,

What currency ? and how much is setting up a new currency going to cost?
You state polling shows that hundreds of thousands would move from England, bringing their cash, assets and skills with them.
What polling is your source for this?

If Brexit has huge short term costs for the UK , Scottish Independence would have far greater short term consequences and would lead to austerity max for years

“The border between Switzerland and the EU is totally different. Switzerland is in Schengen, fgs.”

Switzerland doesn’t only border EU members. But let me get this straight. Brexit UK rejects not only EU membership, it rejects EFTA membership, doesn’t want to even be in the EEA and doesn’t want even anything resembling the Schengen treaty with neighbouring countries and people in Scotland are supposed to accept that and stick with it?

Unrealistic. It goes against the promises made at the 2014 referendum, goes way beyond the Brexit prospectus in 2016 and makes the UK an uncompetitive mess which will be eaten alive by the EU in terms of business.

We’re not going to endure it.