To think it is now inevitable that Scotland will become independent?

[amandacarnet]

With brexit and the increasing move to the right wing, I think it is now just a matter of time until Scotland becomes independent.

The last referendum produced a decisive win for the silent majority, and in normal circumstances that would be the issue settled for a generation.

Brexit changes everything, though. Scotland will be dragged out of the EU against its wishes by the votes of English Tories. It’s absolutely right that there should be another referendum, and if I had a vote I would vote for independence.

I did not vote last time, I no longer live in Scotland so not eligible to vote now. But I This not vote as I tend to think any large scale changes have a long negative impact before things get better. But with brexit that is happening anyway. So if you are going to go through economic turmoil anyway, it might as well be to improve things long term.

There would have to be a hard border if Scotland joined the EU or EFTA.

Does anyone know if Scottish born, but not resident, would get Scottish citizenship?

Your citizenship is determined at birth, but you can achieve citizenship through long term residence or parentage, in most places.

Only one country has gone independent within the UK, that's Ireland.

You can't possibly use empire countries as a reason for Scottish independence. Did empire countries have elected representatives in Parliament? Most of them wouldn't have had a shared language before colonisation.

So queuing and passports then, which nobody will vote for.

“There would have to be a hard border if Scotland joined the EU or EFTA.”

Only if the UK wanted one.

“Did empire countries have elected representatives in Parliament?”

Ireland had for more MPs than Scotland did, with a considerably lower population.

“So queuing and passports then”

I think there is a little bit more to it than that. There will be no hard border between EU member Republic of Ireland and Brexit UK NI.

The idea then that one would be required between Brexit UK and EU or EFTA Scotland is ridiculous.

If a Westminster Government wants to vandalise their own economy further and make themselves less competitive while business invests in Scotland that is up to them I guess.

Businesses are already investing in Scotland with independence on the horizon. Barclays are spending £1 billion on a massive new development in Glasgow.

I can see how support for an independent Scotland might be boosted by Brexit.

But, again, how are you getting to an actual vote?

MorrisZapp

So queuing and passports then, which nobody will vote for.

Um, Brexit?

We were talking about Scottish Independence at soft play today. Assuming everyone was telling the truth, I'd think there has definitely been a shift towards yes because things have changed so much. Dh was always a committed Unionist having a mum from NI and a rich Conservative voting Scottish dad. He voted SNP at the last election. For me (and I'm still on the fence) if it comes down to a no dealing UK seeking closer ties to the Trump's US, risking the GFA and putting the Conservative party first then I'd be tempted to say sod it, we're going to have the upheaval and the unrest anyway, why not see if we can build an independent country our kids can be proud of.

I think the more English politicans say no to a referendum and try and ignore the fact that Brexit in general and potentially a no deal brexit in particular have changed the game, the more that feeling is going to build.

“But, again, how are you getting to an actual vote?”

Lots of ways. And the longer WM stall they longer their odds become.

A General Election or Holyrood Election with it in the manifesto gives a renewed mandate. If a Section 30 Order is not complied with by Westminster there are a few main options.

1. An advisory referendum to be carried out anyway. This would be no different in standing or legal terms than the Brexit referendum.

1. A commitment than in light of democracy being denied against international law, the next election will contain a manifesto outline than a 50% or more return of MPs or 50% vote share will result in a Declaration of Independence.

Then WM only has the option of military action to prevent independence. Which it want to do not be in the position to do.

It’s not going to happen unless there is an actual vote.

What are the circumstances of Scotland getting that vote?

The SNP can’t ‘just hold’ a referendum. For it to be legal, Westminster needs to grant it and the Electoral Commission need to oversee. How do the SNP get their referendum in the first place, never mind win it?

Scotland should go now, they are becoming a nuisance to England. They have two lots of MP's and a disproportionate influence on non-Scottish affairs.

Scotland would soon have the begging bowl out to the EU.

50% of Scottish MPs being in favour of independence was always the benchmark for a declaration under previous Conservative Governments.

It is the SNP under Salmond and now Sturgeon who have always insisted on a referendum as the measure, because it is a higher test and makes a Yes vote unassailable.

“The SNP can’t ‘just hold’ a referendum. For it to be legal”

Yes they can. The Brexit referendum is advisory and not legally binding, but it is politically binding.

An advisory referendum to be carried out anyway. This would be no different in standing or legal terms than the Brexit referendum.

Yes, it would be. There would be no legal basis for it. Parliament had to pass the referendum legislation. Similar power is reserved to Westminster, including the role of the Electoral Commission.

Nope - SNP cannot hols an advisory referendum. They can’t. That’s why they haven’t.

I doubt it. With referendums it seems to be pretty much one and done. I think Scotland ate the cake before the wedding and lost their chance of making a clean break. Now they are stuck in this trainwreck.

“Yes, it would be. There would be no legal basis for it. Parliament had to pass the referendum legislation. Similar power is reserved to Westminster, including the role of the Electoral Commission.”

More abject ignorance, delivered in an authoritative tone. Quite the parallel.

The Scottish Parliament can have referenda on anything it likes, including the constitution. It has already voted to have a new independence referendum. Legislation has been passed by the Scottish Parliament and civil servants at Holyrood are working on the process.

For the referendum to be legally binding on Westminster, a Section 30 Order is required.

Whether “legally binding” is significant is a matter of debate. The Brexit referendum was Advisory and as such not legally binding but it is politically binding.

“Nope - SNP cannot hols an advisory referendum. They can’t. That’s why they haven’t.”

Yes they can. All constitution experts agree that they can. The reason they have not is that it could be viewed as illegitimate and boycotted.

If a section 30 Order is denied ad infinitum, the legitimacy question diminishes significantly.

Scotland should go now, they are becoming a nuisance to England

Oh dear, mustn't have that. 🙄

There would have to be a hard border if Scotland joined the EU and England were not following EU rules about trade. But in reality if English firms want to trade in Europe, then they have to follow EU rules anyway.