Explanation.
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Johnson wants to suspend parliament for a few days. He has to ask the Queen permission to do this.
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This puts the Queen in a difficult position as some constitutional experts consider this unconstitutional and undemocratic. HOWEVER this has become so political it is difficult to make that a tangible point of law nor if it was would it necessarily be recognised as being a point of law that was credible.
This is what pure politics is - where legal systems either have no force or not enough credibility to hold weight.
The check and balances of the democratic system have been upset and are no longer functioning. This is a big deal regardless of what your political opinions are. It means that whatever happens is no longer going through the normal channels and thus democracy as we know it, is indeed in crisis. The arguement is merely about who is to blame for this.
- As such, even though there are legal challenges in process, it is unlikely that any court would uphold them - partly because there is no alternative tangiable legal path of what should be done and what can be done under these circumstances.
Equally, the Queen whilst she has the power to refuse to prorogue parliament is also unlikely to do so, because it would expose the Crown too much to politics and endanger its future. Doing nothing is also a political act and would expose the Monarchy, however it is easier to spin as being politically neutral. This is particularly true as Johnson has been setting up a narrative of 'Johnson and the people v parliament' as it is, and this is easily extended to 'Johnson and the people v the establishment'.
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Parliament would be expected to return around 17th October, which is when the last EU summit is before the 31st October. Johnson would present a Queen's Speech, which parliament would have to vote for. If it doesn't this pass a parliamentary vote this is effectly a Vote of No Confidence in the Government, and we are into full blown Constitutional Crisis.
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The Government is supposed to resign in such circumstances. However its so close to 31st October that there is a problem. Calling a General Election immediately would mean parliament to be dissolved. This would prevent the passing of crucial laws essential for either No Deal, a Deal or an extension. So its not really an option regardless of who is in charge.
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It is likely you would get Johnson saying he needs to either remain as PM in an emergency (but can't pass anything so is effectively a lame duck) or saying he needs to use the power of the executive without parliamentary approval under the Civil Contigencies Act to prevent loss of life. He could do this for a short number of weeks without needing parliamentary approval. This is compounded by the fact that even with a VoNC Johnson isn't legally obliged to go before 31st October.
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But its possible there would be a majority in the Commons who were able to form a new majority government in the interim before 31st October. And would be entitled to ask the Queen to do so.
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The trouble is that protocol dictates that the PM is supposed to resign before a new administration is formed and asks the Queen for permission to form government. If we have an alternative government which claims a legitmacy to govern, before 31st October and Johnson refuses to go, we have something of a problem.
It puts the Queen in a position where she has two governments claiming legitmacy. Which sparks the same narrative as above for the Monarchy about political involvement.
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A General Election, does solve the above crisis, but it would be impossible to have one BEFORE 31st October.
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We also can only have an extension to article 50 if the UK government asks for one. This is a bit of an issue if we have two governments. Who would the EU recognise as our government? And legally they can't extend it unilaterally even if they wanted to.
Thus the ability to extend a50 becomes somewhat close to impossible for them.
- Potentially having two governments claiming legitamacy is the stuff of civil wars. Certainly civil unrest is a very high possibility.
Civil unrest in a no deal situation is possible anyway. It means that any unrest might be due to no deal but also could be blamed on the constitutional crisis too.
It is an unholy mess, and looks like its one which is increasingly likely to actually play out, one way or another.