To think that No Deal Brexit is the only option now

[Bearbehind]

I’m a staunch Remainer, I think Brexit is absolute madness but I can’t see any way out of this mess except No Deal now - the division is too great and views are too entrenched

Leavers insist it will all be fine so the
only option is to do it and see what happens

The way I see it, anything less will just lead to the uprise of the Brexit Party until we ‘leave properly’ anyway.

We might as well just jump of the cliff now. If it’s all rosey then great.

If it’s not at least we can start to repair the damage sooner rather than later

If you are so keen in all of Scotland to keep Scotland in the Union put it to a referendum. Which was promised to Scotland if there were a material change to circumstances. If the majority in Scotland oppose independence, you get to keep the Union. The experience in Catalunya should warn people off an unsanctioned referendum.

So, come up with something else that avoids No Deal

Do you honestly think it’s that simple?

Do you really believe there’s an idea out there that

A) hasn’t been considered before

B) will convince Leavers no to still persue no deal?

What’s needed here is a reality check

double is quite right, and I’ve said this many times too- NI being a special economic area isn’t even a good idea, aside from the fact it won’t get through anyway

All you need to do is disagree. Setting up special threads and dismissing brusquely every idea that isn't yours isn't very productive.
I get it, you want No Deal.

Can I just ask why Scottish Tories don't want a border down the Irish Sea? Surely preservation of the Union is more likely if there is no hard border between NI and the Republic? A border would destroy the NI economy and I'd think it would lead to the destruction of the Union.

I'm sorry Op, but I agree with bellini. I think you're overlooking the fact that Johnson doesn't want to be a 10 minute PM. He's just as aware as anyone else that a No Deal Brexit will be a lot more damaging than a few 'bumps in the road'.

He wants to get a WA through Parliament. The only way I can see that he can solve the backstop problem is a sea border and ditching NI. Unlike May, he doesn't give a damn about 'the Union'. And, unlike May, he still has the GE card to play to get a working majority without the DUP.

Unlike May, he won't get much opposition from Corbyn about something that will make a united Ireland more likely. Corbyn also needs a deal. He won't be able to change the world, in the (unlikely, imo) event he wins a GE, if the economy is in ruins. He's no Gordon Brown when it comes to dealing with an existential emergency.

It's a high-stakes game, whatever Johnson chooses to do. But yes, I do think he'll sacrifice his majority for one vote if it increases his chances of delivering a Brexit with a deal, winning a healthy majority in a GE and staying in power long enough to move on to his domestic agenda.

Whether Cummings feels the same is another matter.

I do disagree but it’s a very interesting point.

One of us must be wrong so it’s good to find out who most people agree with.

It’s not a competition, just a chance to avoid these back and forth discussions which go nowhere

I would like to have avoided no deal but I do t see any way that is possible now - I think it has to happen sooner or later

Pinning your hopes on something that’s not possible doesn’t seem a very productive way of avoiding it

If the other thread can explain why it is actually possible I’m happy to change my opinion

Would it be ditching NI though, or would it be ditching the DUP who represent a small section of NI? I'd prefer a whole UK backstop and I think it will go through at the last minute but as an alternative, surely it would be economically beneficial?

Not "pinning my hopes". If it doesn't work, try something else. It's not been tried - what with Parliament being in recess. Maybe enough people can read this nonsense and lobby their MP. Maybe it will come to nothing.
I've said a gazillion times, Brexit going brilliantly and me getting egg on my face is a small price to pay.

No problem with you disagreeing with me tyme 😂

How do you think the Tories could win a GE if they go for the NI option though?

The way I see it they’d lose every seat in Scotland at least and end up in a coalition with the Brexit Party who would push for no deal so all that would have happened is the same outcome will have been delayed, and Farage would probably be in government too!

Johnson's base don't care about NI. In a choice between Brexit and losing NI, 59% would choose Brexit. (June - during the leadership elections.) I'm not sure the rest of the UK is that bothered, either. There are obvious advantages for NI in remaining in the EU.

If Johnson gets a Brexit deal through the Commons, the Brexit party has lost its reason for existing. Latest polls show Tory defectors to BP are returning since Johnson has been PM. Labour has LD nipping at its heels. - only 2 points behind. Tory plus BP on 47. Lab plus LD on 40. The party who won the most seats in the Euro-elections is now at the bottom of the poll - 14 compared to 33 for the Tories.

Yes - polls can change. Who'd have predicted the LDs doing so well now in 2017? Or the emergence of the BP? But I really don't think Corbyn can do it again. The problem with the rock-star/fan-club model of leadership is it doesn't last. Without the talent to support it, he's a one-hit wonder. And a millstone round our necks.

Things are moving so quickly and it's hard to keep up with the ramifications of each twist and turn for each grouping, but the above is my best guess today. It could all change tomorrow.

If Johnson gets a Brexit deal through the Commons, the Brexit party has lost its reason for existing

This is where we disagree - I think only no deal will make them go away

They don't need to go away. They just need to not get much support. Which is what would happen once Brexit has been delivered. And it can be delivered without No Deal.

I think it’s possible there will be a backstop fudge that includes the whole UK, thus keeps the Tories in power for now but I don’t think it’s stable enough

The Brexit Party would drum up support because we ‘haven’t left properly’ and we’d still face no deal at the end of a transition period

Hoping Leavers are just going to be happy with the WA and negotiations which mean we are pretty much still aligned to all EU regulations in order to trade with them isn’t going to make that happen

How is that not fantasy politics and suggestions that aren't that ARE fantasy?

Eh? What do you mean?

I’ve said I think any fudge is a short term solution that will end up with us facing no deal further down the line

I don’t expect you agree but it’s hardly ‘fantasy politics’

I'm losing the thread of what you are saying. Are you now saying there should be an all UK backstop that is a rebranded version of WA?

Are you now saying there should be an all UK backstop that is a rebranded version of WA?

I think that is what BJ is planning in order to avoid no deal at this point but I don’t think it’s a stable enough option to be the final solution - I think we’ll be facing no deal again at the end of a transition because we’d still be too aligned to the EU for most Leavers liking

There's a difference between predicting likely no Deal and embracing it as you seem to do.

I’m not embracing it, I’m saying I think it’s the only likely outcome so if we are going to do it in the end anyway we might as well get on with it and start to repair the damage sooner rather than later.

Uncertainty will just erode the economy anyway the longer we leave it so we start from an even lower position.

I totally get what you’re doing, think it’s a form of self preservation. Logic used to work and it’s very unsettling when it has gone out of the window leaving us feel vulnerable and looking at ways of finding certainty.

You’re making assumptions about what would happen at the end of a transition and an assumption about most Leavers and we have a whole host of variables (mostly unknown at this point) which are fluid, subject to change and some will not be known until later though.

My allotment neighbour used to ask me when I looked at all the weeds a bit daunted at times ‘how to you eat an elephant?’ The answer is one bite at a time. That’s what we all need to do at the moment, one step at a time. We can’t predict how things will go at this point, it’s too early to call it.

As I said I do understand why you’re saying what you are saying. It crossed my mind at one point then I realised how much all sides are being played in this and how we’ve been deliberately set against each other , so dismissed it quickly.

I've been living in France with my French husband and kids for over a decade. I don't have a French ID card because I've not needed one for the past fifteen years. If I come to the UK after October 31, there's no way to tell me apart from someone going to France for the first time on a day trip, and worst case they can refuse to let me back in. Big slow clap to all you leavers.

It appears a number of remain MPs are meeting to see if they can pass legislation opposing a no-deal Brexit and/or a further extension.

I have no idea if this is possible but they must think it is.

sorry that should have read requesting a further extension

You do talk a lot of sense post 😃

I do much prefer to deal in concrete situations than have things up in the air I guess

Maybe if BJ fudges getting out of no deal he can spin something that will be enough to allow most people to go back to thinking about the EU as much as they did before the referendum ie, hardly ever

The ironic thing is I’ll probably go on the Brexit march in October - hoping for a miracle!

I just can’t be doing with pinning hopes on things that clearly aren’t going to happen, for whatever reason

And if BJ doesn’t find a fudge and it is no deal then at least it’s a line in the sand from which we can start to move on

It appears a number of remain MPs are meeting to see if they can pass legislation opposing a no-deal Brexit and/or a further extension

Corbyn apparently is prepared to do anything to stop no deal - anything except stand down I expect, which is the one thing that genuinely could stop it