To think that No Deal Brexit is the only option now

[Bearbehind]

I’m a staunch Remainer, I think Brexit is absolute madness but I can’t see any way out of this mess except No Deal now - the division is too great and views are too entrenched

Leavers insist it will all be fine so the
only option is to do it and see what happens

The way I see it, anything less will just lead to the uprise of the Brexit Party until we ‘leave properly’ anyway.

We might as well just jump of the cliff now. If it’s all rosey then great.

If it’s not at least we can start to repair the damage sooner rather than later

The op is talking a lot of sense.

Everything BJ is doing is with an eye towards an autumn election.
Fight with BBC over license fee waiver for old folks.
Promises of money to lots of special sectors (esp. potential Tory voters).
Hint at freezing fuel duty.
Talk of "working families". I live in a family where 3 adults work. I work 45 hrs/week. I don't think he means people like me though.

No sweeteners for young people -- you notice that? No special terms on student loans, for instance.

Will BJ call election before after Brexit has happened, I wonder? Maybe he fancies he'll do better at the polls in the chaos that follows 31 Oct.

Since winning GE is only thing BJ truly cares about, whether Brexit happens depends on the perceived best timing for that election, I reckon.

Wow, another thread where I agree with Bear!!!!

Here's what I think . I think BJ is playing a game that looks like an election strategy but I feel it's aimed at Conservative MPs, independents and other central groups as much as voters. The first thing he has to do is quash a no confidence vote and ensure that he has as much of the parliament with him as possible. His insistence that we are leaving on the 31st Oct. is part of this too. It plays well to the far right and most leave voters. So he is appealing to lots of different factions.
I am not a fan of Boris at all and didn't vote for him in the recent leadership vote. His idiotic actions and buffoonery have made him a laughing stock. However he has come across well in the last couple of weeks and has obviously got a good team behind him making sure he is on message. He is a delegator which TM wasn't. Which is a good thing, behind the scenes loads of meetings are happening and preparations are being made for no deal.
I hope that each dept. will make statements when parliament resumes letting us know how well prepared they are for the 31st Oct.

I feel that his strategy has to be followed through. The EU didn't believe for one min. that TM meant 'no deal was better than a bad deal'. We have to act tough now or we will have no chance of a half decent deal at all.

We really must get on with this. The uncertainty is really bad for business. It's doing us no good at all.

Since winning GE is only thing BJ truly cares about, whether Brexit happens depends on the perceived best timing for that election, I reckon

I think it’s fair to say that goes equally if not more so for JC. In fact he has had three years, whilst sitting on his brexit fence, to fully consider his much coveted PM role. Therefore, should he win a GE, I expect him to have a fully costed calculation of how he is going to end austerity and right all the apparent Tory wrongs. If not then the alternative is he sends us further down the political and economical toilet.

He is a delegator which TM wasn't. Which is a good thing

From everything I've seen and read lately it seems as if Dominic Cummings is in fact running the country right now, so I'd say not a good thing.

Are people in the target demographic getting lots of Facebook ads now, then, about how Brexit is great, Blitz spirit, time to really give the Establishment a kicking, repel the Turkish hoardes, etc.?

Maybe I could make a fake FBk account to try to be that demographic & see what ads are going out to them.

imho, uncertainty is actually BETTER than crashing out. Uncertainty still means a lot of status quo.

As for BJ looking good recently... really?? Who exactly is impressed by him Making up total nonsense this week like he has his whole professional life??

CEO of Melton M pies was saying (R4 this morning) that what would really help his business post Brexit is protected product names in international sales; else his pork pies can be made & sold by any random person in Europe in future, no name protection at all. Unlikely to ever be forthcoming in USA, too.

Are you saying at this point things can’t get worse, Brexit has played out and we start to rebuild ?if so I see your logic but I think the division will mean things will get worse for a very long time.

Yes, that’s what I’m saying.

Although I fully expect it to be awful, at least the predictions will have to crystallise, one way or the other.

I know Leavers will find somewhere to direct the blame but the key point is we’d know what we have to deal with

Can't wait to see your better idea to stop No Deal.

The point I, and others are making is that ‘your’ idea is about as likely to happen as revoking is bellini

You can recite its virtues all you like, as could I with revoking, but if it’s not going to happen it’s completely pointless talking about it

There are no viable better alternatives to no deal right now, that’s entirely the problem

You really are taking this personally, aren't you? I am not personally wedded to the suggestion of a border in the sea . I don't give a damn whose idea it is. If anyone comes up with a better idea, that's great. More power to them. No Deal isn't the better idea. You are arguing it is the only idea of a Leave left. And getting rather upset and shouty at anyone who disagrees with you. Odd.

Ok, I've read all your arguments, I'm afraid I have to conclude. YABU.

bellini I’m not getting upset at all.

You frustrate me with the fact you can’t comprehend why the Tories won’t put your idea to a vote but that just makes you look daft, not me.

My point here is that none of these ideas are possible in practice so what option is there besides no deal?

It would be great if the government could be honest about what no deal actually means instead of playing down the consequences, but they’re not going to do that so those who support no deal are never going to be alarmed by it.

Ok, I've read all your arguments, I'm afraid I have to conclude. YABU.

Fair enough - it would be good if you could elaborate on why and what your alternative option is though

I understand what you are saying but disagree. The change in PM makes a difference to the situation and I’m still against No Deal personally. Saying that I am against No Deal does not mean I necessarily want to revoke or have a Norway agreement.

I do get that you are saying everything has been tried but Johnson is a new variable in the Brexit Experiment that fucks with all our lives - guess we are the equivalent of lab rats, it does sometimes feel that way.

I think you underestimate what Tories are prepared to go for to avoid a Corbyn government. Or what Labour MPs in strong Leave areas are prepared to accept fir Brexit. Or the lack of shits given for NI by most people who want Brexit . Or the fact that recent polls in NI show majority support for a border in the sea.
If it fails, I don't care. I'm a general prepper with an Irish passport. My dd is applying to get on the Foreign Birth Register- many of her cousins already on it.
But at least I am still trying to avoid no Deal.
But you have this nihilistic (sorry, I know you are triggered by me repeating stuff) desire to have a No Deal. Maybe it's the same "fuck 'em" attitude that had you comfortable with voting Tory as you have done.

But Johnson is far more cavalier than TM was so I see him as being far more likely to push the button on no deal

He’ll be able to twist the blame onto the EU far more effectively.

I honestly don’t see how you think BJ is a better bet against no deal.

I think you underestimate what Tories are prepared to go for to avoid a Corbyn government.

This makes no sense. How can you possibly say that then claim the Tories will happily give away their working majority in order to get 1 vote through?

I agree every single idea, even the bad ones are better than no deal. However we are either heading for no deal or a last minute swerve where the WA comes back and enough people vote for it to overrule the dup. I'm hoping that enough moderate Labour mps knowing they will be likely to be deselected anyway will just vote for the WA if it comes up. An election befor e Brexit will risk a Brexit party/ Tory coalition which as we as being more horrific even than what we have now, but will lead to no deal anyway.

It only makes no sense if you have blinkers on.
An NI only backstop backstop avoids the whole of the UK being in the customs union/single market. Which is what they were all bleating about.
And as for another poster daring to suggest you are being unreasonable. It is rather funny you asking them to explain why. Given that you are getting in a tizz about people disagreeing with you.

Even Boris Johnson votes for the WA. A WA with the all-UK but taken out and the NI safety net left in should appease enough people.

bellini you clearly have a problem with me for daring to challenge you but that doesn’t mean the feeling is mutual

You read far too much into things - the poster above said IWBU, that’s fine, but in the interest of discussion it’s better if they state why

You don’t seem to be able to post without making sly digs at me all the time so it’s perhaps best if you avoid my threads

If you want to have a civil discussion about how you think on 1 hand that the Tories will do anything to avoid a Corbyn government whilst on the other hand saying they’d happily lose the support of the DUP, thus their working majority, in order to get a sea border through, I’m all ears.

If anyone else wants to chip in with support for bellinis views likewise I’m all ears because, for the life of me, I do not understand the logic

Kettle. Pot.

No I don’t think he is a better bet against No Deal and we may well end up with No Deal. He is indeed very convincing about doing this but that is exactly what he wants us to think.

The unknown is what effect everyone thinking he is mad enough to go ahead with No Deal will have on Parliament. It means there is a chance that MPs will behave differently to how they have before when TM was PM, hence he is a new variable. Until they are back which is now imminent we don’t know. There is a lot to play out the next few weeks and until it has I’m not prepared to resign myself at this point to something I believe is very damaging.

Besides, research in the news today is saying that optimistic live longer so on top of all the stress the fuckers have caused over the worry of insulin supplies, they are not going to win by robbing me of my optimism until we are at the last possible point.

I’m so sad that I was too young to sit down and talk about the war with my German Grandparents before they died. I want to know what they did when they realised what was happening. Obviously this is different but it will be something that is studied by future generations. I want my hypothetical Grandchildren to know that I did everything I could to avoid No Deal until the last moment.

Obviously an individual is very limited in what they can do but we have more power than my German Grandparents did with social media and more knowledge thanks to it - which is both a blessing and a curse.

I’ve seen your posts since the Referendum and I understand why you are where you are . You’ve tried to understand why people voting Leave voted as you did but personally I feel you you being too logical about something which is not logical. My Dad nailed it before the Referendum. He said Leave will surely win with the huge wave of emotion they have managed to unleash. I was too busy dealing with my Mum who died a couple of weeks before the vote to have noticed so didn’t really understand what he was going on about at the time.

And despite all the stress he has seen caused to me and DH, worrying about DD and her EU partner, about insulin supply and other things , he still wants to Leave. This is not a logical response, It is a deep seated emotion that Leave has tapped into and exploited and has been a masterpiece of manipulation and propaganda. I am not prepared to capitulate at this point. You’ll probably say I am doing myself more harm than good but so be it.

There is so much at stake here, so much more than simply whether we are in or out of the EU. It’s about the rights of us and future generations, rights which have been hard to get by those who came before us. I feel I owe it to them, we must all make our choices at this point and this is mine. Now is not the time to give up.

I feel you you being too logical about something which is not logical.

I think you are probably right - that is often my problem! 😂

I also agree about your point about BJ being mad enough to push the button potentially having a sobering effect

It will be an interesting next few weeks though

Bellini - Let me reiterate what I said the other day re a NI only back stop.
As a Scottish tory I can tell you that we in Scotland are very keen to keep Scotland in the union. Up here the Conservatives are still called the Conservative and Unionist Party for a very good reason. Any suggestion of a customs border down the Irish sea is completely against all of the Tories unionist credentials.
The SNP would have a field day, they would probably hold their own indy referendum without Gov. approval.
This is not a possibility at all in any way what so ever. Tories down south may well think it's a goer but there are enough Scottish Tory MPs to scupper any of that talk.

So, come up with something else that avoids No Deal.