AIBU to ask if you changed your opinion about Brexit

[Flyingfish2019]

We had a lot of Brexit threads but I think not about this topic. As somebody who does not live in Britain I wonder if you changed your opinion about Brexit now that you heard that a hard Brexit is most likely. Would you vote different if there was a second vote?

I think there are probsbly a lot of "leave voters" who post from Russia on here and other forums. The leave voters I know in real life have mostly changed their minds and would vote remain.

I voted remain and would again. My parents voted leave but would vote remain now.

All those leave voters who have said here and elsewhere they regret it - thank you for being honest and being big enough to admit you would change your mind. I admire that kind of integrity.

Flowerplower

I agree.

Flowerplower

Vashe predlozheniye vyigryvayet samuyu nelepuyu nagradu nedeli. Spasibo za smekh. Net, ya ne russkiy, izvinite, chto razocharoval vas, eto lyubezno predostavleno onlayn perevodchikom

I've read enough from you on other threads to know it's not worth my time running that through Google translate, silversurfer.

I voted leave, and would now vote remain. We will not get what we were promised and we do not have a leader strong enough to secure us actually leaving.

Yes I agree people like some posters on here and flowerpower's parents deserve respect and credit. They have been insightful, perspicacious and open minded enough to change their vision.

There's no hope FIL would ever show that kind of integrity or judgment.
My friend's Mum (who until all of this was our replacement grandma) is sadly incapable of that level of discernment and sagacity too.

I knew a lot about what the EU does and how it works before the referendum due to my professional and academic background. I was always very clear about the issues at stake and so it wasn't a difficult decision for me.

I fully get that for most people it was a difficult and complex decision which they didn't necessarily feel well equipped to make. At the end of the day everyone voted as they felt best at the time, and there were probably a lot of remainers who considered voting leave and a lot of leavers who considered voting remain, all for perfectly good reasons.

The leave campaigners promised a lot of things which sounded very positive and very convincing. The problem is that they were undeliverable, and I, with my particular knowledge, knew that. Most people didn't have the same knowledge and wouldn't have understood that certain promises were undeliverable. (In some cases I think even the people who made those promises didn't understand that they were undeliverable, although that is far less excusable because those people are paid -by us - to understand these things.)

There is no shame in having voted leave for what you thought at the time were good reasons. But it is time to hold these people account for what they promised, and every leave voter who is brave enough to stand up and say this isn't what they voted for is helping to do that. So thank you.

Three quarters of new voters (those who turned 18 since June 2016) would vote to remain in the EU.

And 87% of new voters who say they would definitely take part in a referendum would vote to remain.

This referendum is set to cause inter-generational bitterness - and potentially even hatred - for years to come.

Three quarters of new voters (those who turned 18 since June 2016) would vote to remain in the EU.

That's exactly in line with how that age group voted in the actual referendum, according to the Ipsos MORI survey. The most generous figures for youth (18-24) turnout was 64% so that really doesn't offer anything like the number required to change the outcome, even when deaths are taken into account as well as if those 87% actually voted in a hypothetical second referendum.

gronky The research says that this would produce approximately 2 million more remain voters. See today’s observer.

The research says that this would produce approximately 2 million more remain voters

According to my figures, in mid-2017, the UK population estimates by ONS was:
16 - 717,803
17 - 738,544
18 - 765,845

If we take 75% of the 16 year olds, add them to the other totals, that yields 2.04M total. Apologies on my earlier assessment of 'doesn't offer anything like', I was adding whole years but, even assuming an ideal turnout of 87% and 75% voting Remain, that's 1.33M which is just enough to swing the result if you're very charitably assuming that no one else who previously voted is changing their minds. I would certainly question where BMG is coming up with all those extra people.

On the note of changing minds, 82% of those aged 16 and 17 said in 2016 that they would vote Remain:
www.independent.co.uk/student/news/eu-referendum-uk-result-students-votes-at-16-remain-brexit-leave-a7101821.html
so it's interesting that the results have shifted slightly towards Leave as this demographic has grown up (in the age sense, not the maturity sense) to be in line with how their peers voted at the same age. I don't believe that this alone is enough to draw a firm conclusion but it may be indicative.

I would like to see a more in depth study of whether attitudes have shifted with time. I wouldn't be surprised if the assumption that everyone is stagnant in their attitudes towards the EU is wrong.

In my view the real issue is that for many (not all) leavers it's become a defining feature of their identity, somehow equating it with being a proud Brit. I really wish they'd all do like some leavers on this thread and face the facts. Then they'd really help the country.

Figmentofmyimagination, I had another read of the article, the 2M figure is the total number of potential new voters, not the forecast number of extra Remain votes.

I think Federal does apply to China as well as the term super state - all these terminologies are fluid and not set in stone
This reminds me of “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.”
Let's just all make up our own definitions, eh?

Gronky is correct - the article dodges the question of what percentage of new voters would definitely take part in the referendum;

Some 74% of people who were too young to cast a ballot in the 2016 Brexit referendum but have since reached voting age would back remain if a second public vote were called, according to a new poll.

The proportion of the new voters–an estimated 2 million young people–supporting remain rises to 87% among those who say they would “definitely” take part in the referendum.

Songsofexperience

Wouldn’t it be easier if remainers faced the facts?

You lost.

We’re leaving the EU.
Stop hurting yourselves by hanging onto some ridiculous dream that we’ll stay.
It’s becoming cringe worthy.

Oh, & here’s a lovely flag just for you.
🇬🇧

supporting remain rises to 87% among those who say they would “definitely” take part in the referendum

Either I'm a bit thick (a definite possibility) or that's very sneaky wording. I certainly mistook that to mean that 87% of people in that age group would definitely vote, possibly due to priming by Figment (not that I'm accusing them of personally being deliberately misleading).

I didn't think there was going to be another referendum? Has something been announced?

Not yet, FriendorFaux, but we could be inching towards it.

Sneaky wording or a clumsy amendment.There is a postscript at the bottom of the article:

This article was amended on 10 March 2019. An earlier version wrongly stated that the poll had shown that 87% of young people who have become eligible to vote since the 2016 referendum would vote in a second referendum.This has been corrected.

I'm sure they haven't told us what proportion of new voters said they would definitely vote in a second referendum.

I don't mind another referendum, as long as it's after the result of the 2016 one is actually enacted.
Maybe after about five years or so?

Has something been announced?

Labour announced today that they won't be pushing for a second referendum in the immediate future, so I imagine there's a sudden urgency among those who would like one to increase the pressure.

Maybe after about five years or so?

Surely 41 years after we leave the EU would be reasonable, then an equal amount of time in and out of the EU would have been experienced in order to draw a fair conclusion.

Gronky
That's a better idea than mine