No. It seems abundantly obvious that the EU has offered us a crap deal to force us back in.
I don’t know what it’s like in London, but people in the north are starting to get extremely angry. We’ve spent the last year being insulted by remainers, called too stupid to vote and “gammon” and told we didn’t understand what we were voting for. The only groups that voted in majority for remain was the wealthiest AB groups. Remain votes were much higher in the South. People in those groups really don’t seem to be able to compute that working class people and northerners feel very, very little benefit from the EU but massive draw backs. There really is a feeling that the wealthiest in this country have colluded with the EU to get their own way and make sure the working classes are denied a voice or influence.
I honestly think if there was another referendum and remain won, it wouldn’t be seen as the country changing its mind and a fair result. I think it would be regarded as an outcome which only happened because the elite and the EU had connived together to manipulate the process to force the situation.
I think it would probably lead to widespread civil unrest.
We would be best off telling the EU that we intended to go for no deal. We’d have an extremely strong hand then because the EU would be fucked if we withdrew. France is expected to make up most of the shortfall financially that UK withdrawal with no deal would create. Macron is under huge pressure in France at the moment to give more to ordinary people. The EU have already told him that it’s unlikely he can afford to fund what he is promising and that he’s being closely watched (although interestingly the EU made no comment when Macron slashed taxes for the rich). Combined with the hit the French economy would take in the event of no deal, particularly in the north, France and Macron would be in serious trouble. It would make the recent unrest look like a school girls’ tea party.
Ireland is also facing real economic problems at the moment and homelessness and repossessions are the main story. There is considerable anger at the heavy handed tactics being employed by police to carry out evictions, especially as Varadker has appointed a former head of the RUC to head the police - that has created absolute fury. Ireland is also a potential tinderbox. The Greeks obviously have a lot of economic problems and Spain’s economy is very fragile, their tourism would be hit and they would be asking questions of the EU. Populism and anti EU sentiment are heavily influential in Poland, Hungary and Austria. Plus the in the US the current administration is anti EU and pro UK.
If we were genuinely prepared to threaten it, our position would be hugely strong and the EU would pretty soon come back with a better deal. But the remain faction in the UK is working as hard as it can to make sure that no deal cannot be deployed effectively as a bargaining chip because they do not want a better deal offered, they want us to be forced to remain because we only have an awful deal on offer. The calls for a second referendum are very much a part of that.
Remain, of course, have made it abundantly clear that they view most of the working classes as too stupid to understand much. I think they think that means they don’t think they’ll see through what is happening. But I really think they do and there’s going to be trouble. I really think Remain are going to regret the abuse and vitriol which has emanating from their side over the last few years. It seems to have fomented considerable hatred towards them which may well blow back at them.