to wonder if a second referendum is a good idea?

[brizzledrizzle]

The Sunday Times are running a headline that the PM's team are planning one. Part of me thinks it's a good idea, part of me thinks that the country has already voted and can't afford another referendum.

McDonnell is calling the shots and has made it very clear Labour are a pro European party.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/mcdonnell-new-brexit-referendum-should-not-include-remain-option

It is interesting isn't it!

Waiting for the data proving otherwise.

But you know it would make sense that run down seaside towns with extremely small EU populations have few EU construction workers in them.

He has specifically said he is pro EU.

He described it as 7/10 and has a public voting record which has him voting against any further integration of the EU throughout his career, the only time he did vote for was when the party whip was applied.

Waiting for the data proving otherwise.

What data is this, it is known that whilst people talk about immigration have little overall effect on average wages, all research done shows it is the

It is known that the lowest paid unskilled and semi skilled have reduced wages, whilst senior/skilled jobs it actually increases wages.

"It is known that the lowest paid unskilled and semi skilled have reduced wages,"

Only when there is a ten percent point increase in the number of immigrants working in an industry ( or its over 33%) and even then only by a 1.8% reduction.

Its minimal

Only when there is a ten percent point increase in the number of immigrants working in an industry ( or its over 33%) and even then only by a 1.8% reduction.

No, all data suggests that a 1% increase has a negative effect of between 0.2 ~ 0.5%

Using the term only by is what drove a lot of the "hate experts" rhetoric, its very dismissive.

Unfortunately I agree with this article as well

www.spiegel.de/international/europe/opinion-there-should-be-no-exit-from-brexit-a-1243405.html

"No, all data suggests that a 1% increase has a negative effect of between 0.2 ~ 0.5% "

Link? That's not what the BOE data shows at all, nor any other data.

"Using the term only by is what drove a lot of the "hate experts" rhetoric, its very dismissive."

No because it is very small, and in fact not a major determinent of wage levels at all. Especially in areas that have low levels of EU immigrants.

What led the "hate experts" thing was that the leave campaign couldn't pull any factual evidence for their points together so just stoked this instead. It allowed them to dismiss expert evidence and tell people that their prejudices were correct.

No because it is very small, and in fact not a major determinent of wage levels at all. Especially in areas that have low levels of EU immigrants.

Go on then. Get us proof that wages kept up with essential bills like housing, council tax and food.

"Get us proof that wages kept up with essential bills like housing, council tax and food."

That wasn't anything to do with immigration. Getting confused?

Here's a question for you, why do countries with larger numbers of EU immigrants per capita have faster rising real wages over the last ten years than the UK.

Show me evidence that immigration has reduced wages?

which is partly why EU migrants as a whole are net contributors to the economy.

EU migrants are net contributors because we support an aging British population and they are young.

But populations in their own countries are aging, so who supports them if they support us?

Link? That's not what the BOE data shows at all, nor any other data.

Seem as though you cannot google yourself

Research suggests that immigration has small impacts on average wages of UK workers and that the impacts differ along the wage distribution: low-waged workers lose while medium and high-paid workers gain

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-labour-market-effects-of-immigration/

Also as you have difficulty googling any specifics, it might be better to have a basic grasp.

fullfact.org/immigration/immigration-and-jobs-labour-market-effects-immigration/

Oooh you patronising arse,

But its funny that the data you posted doesn't show your claim about 1% increase in immigration causing decreases in wages. The migration observatory doesn't state it

The full fact one links to one study - which was between 1997 and 2005 so you know, before the majority of EU8 immigration.

However it does back up my point, and in fact shows that the impact of immigration is extremely small on the level of wages paid, and of course, has been utterly negated by the increase in tax threshiold

Its about a penny an hour:

www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-small-small-impact-immigration-uk-wages

www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2015/the-impact-of-immigration-on-occupational-wages-evidence-from-britain

fullfact.org/immigration/does-immigration-reduce-wages/

Just to link to the research from the BOE, but I'll put the full fact up there just in case you don't understand the terminology.

But its funny that the data you posted doesn't show your claim about 1% increase in immigration causing decreases in wages. The migration observatory doesn't state it

they found that a 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of migrants to non-migrants leads to a 0.6% decrease in wages for workers at the 5th earnings percentile and a 0.5% decrease at the 10th percentile. Another study focusing on wage effects at the occupational level found that, in the unskilled and semi-skilled service sector, a 1 percentage point rise in the share of migrants reduced average wages in that occupation by about 0.2% (Nickell and Salaheen 2015).

Maybe read it all before you answer

Ypu didn't say one percentage point, you said one percent, do keep up

cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

New evidence in this Report shows that the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration"

It also helps to be linking to upto date information, rather than surveys that were based on data starting nearly 20 years ago .#

"0.6% decrease in wages for workers at the 5th earnings percentile and a 0.5% decrease at the 10th percentile. "

So a tiny drop in wages, caused by a significant increase in immigration? A percentage point in the increase of immigrants ( not neccesarily EU) in the work force is a large number of migrants.

Remain through and through, but a second referendum fills me with fear. A first referendum was a mistake.

A recently published study about the contribution of EU migrants to the economy concludes:

Migrants from the EU contribute £2,300 more to the exchequer each year in net terms than the average adult, the analysis for the government has found.

And, over their lifetimes, they pay in £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits - while the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution is zero.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-workers-uk-tax-treasury-brexit-migrants-british-citizens-a8542506.html

The analysis was done by Oxford Economics for the Migration Advisory Commission, which was commissioned by the government to do an analysis into the economic impacts of migration.

Yes they do include self employed.

They don’t.

found.

And, over their lifetimes, they pay in £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits - while the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution is zero. Just fuck off.

Changing the tack here. It appears TM is asking for parliament to vote around 21st Jan. Purposefully done so no time for a public vote.

Considering it's obvious they will reject it a no deal seems inevitable now.

Russiawithlove

Awesome news.