to wonder if a second referendum is a good idea?

[brizzledrizzle]

The Sunday Times are running a headline that the PM's team are planning one. Part of me thinks it's a good idea, part of me thinks that the country has already voted and can't afford another referendum.

Boris as above. Those figures are worthless for the construction industry. They don’t include the self employed who make up most of the industry.

What???? What 14 year olds do you know that are shipping off to Germany to learn to be plumbers. Ridiculous statement

Actually, we've made a half-hearted attempt at this with UTCs - Plumbase are a partner at this UTC;

aldridgeeducation.org/our-schools-colleges/co-sponsored-partner-colleges/utcharbourside/

The two things aren't related.

We have had migrant workers picking crops in the fields for decades, and conbined with low unemployment in rural areas it means that the crops do go unpicked, as they did this year in some areas.

All of the evidence shows that EU migrants have had a minimal effect on wages. See the BOE, UCL and LSE studies for more information.

Basically the impact of immigration has meant a penny an hour less in wage increases per year for 8 years. So, it works out at about ££166 cumulatively, or £20 a year.

Far outstripped by the increases to tax threshold.

But they are heavily concentrated in certain types of jobs and these are generally jobs the working classes do. If you’re a university lecturer it’s unlikely that multiple Eastern European’s will be offering to do your job on the cheap. But if you’re a brickie or a carer, there almost certainly will be

I think you are making assumptions because a lot of Eastern European tend to work in these areas. EU nationals are also heavily represented in well-paid industries such as banking and finance, which is partly why EU migrants as a whole are net contributors to the economy.

University lecturers are a particularly silly example. 18% of academic teaching staff in the university sector are EU nationals. This is one of the sectors that is most concerned about Brexit.
www.hesa.ac.uk/news/18-01-2018/sfr248-higher-education-staff-statistics

I understand the German model is for 14 year olds to choose between an academic path, or a not-so-academic path at schools financed by industry that allows them an apprenticeship alongside their education.

So it's achievable within the EU.

But not in the UK mainly because the left are rabidly opposed to it and obsessed with making people go to Uni.

"Those figures are worthless for the construction industry. They don’t include the self employed who make up most of the industry."

It isn't worthless, you are just attacking it because it undermines your point.

Oh. And Corbyn’s personal opinions on Brexit are irrelevant. McDonnell is calling the shots and has made it very clear Labour are a pro European party.

Not the McD, I have seen. Europe on his terms only. He wants chaos to build a socialist future. Like Venezuela only without the sun. Or the oil revenues.

All of the evidence shows that EU migrants have had a minimal effect on wages.

But that doesn't reflect reality, a lot of immigrants will be self employed tradespeople not included in payroll figures, a lot are casual workers not included in payroll figures, some are in the black economy, not included in payroll figures.

It isn't worthless, you are just attacking it because it undermines your point.

They are worthless and I’ve explained why. They only include employees and the vast majority of the construction industry is self employed. Those figures represent a small part of the industry, and the parts most likely not to include EU migrants eg salaried architects rather than brickies.

Not the McD, I have seen. Europe on his terms only. He wants chaos to build a socialist future. Like Venezuela only without the sun. Or the oil revenues.

He has specifically said he is pro EU.

It doesn't just include employed in the contruction industry, if you'd read the methodology you'd have understood that.

However, you have offered no evidence for your own points other than "because I say so".

But not in the UK mainly because the left are rabidly opposed to it and obsessed with making people go to Uni.

It was Major’s Tory government in 1992 that passed the legislation for polytechnics to become universities, and it’s those post-1992 universities that have delivered mass higher education in terms of overall student expansion and in widening participation for students from working-class homes and ethnic minorities.

I have reached the point where as a passionate remainer I no longer give a shit. It is the people who say "bring it on" "no deal!!" "Roll on March 2019" who are likely to suffer most as statistically leave voters are less well educated and thus in more vulnerable jobs. I no longer care that people that stupid are going to pay the price for their witlessness. Yeah bring it on. If a bunch of ignorant flag-waving nationalists want to bring the UK into the economic shit - even more than it is today - then who am I to stop them. I'm going to be okay, my kids are too, so why the fuck should I care anymore.

People have been told the hard facts of the cost of Brexit. If they'd rather follow their own stupidity go right ahead.

About half of workers in the UK construction industry are self employed. And that figures doesn't include the black economy workers. So about half aren't included in that figure for EU immigrants employed in the UK construction industry.

buckingfrolicks Perhaps the people that voted leave, the thickest people as you call them, are the ones that have been affected by mass uncontrolled immigration the most, we can’t help who we are born too or help our education or the ability to retain information, or the limited options we may have had, perhaps we should be shot at birth, would that be better for you ?

"So about half aren't included in that figure for EU immigrants employed in the UK construction industry."

Nope, the entire construction industry was included in that study, read the methodology, it did state that it covers the whole industry.

However, it doesn't fit your narrative so you dismiss it without offering any evidence of your own.

Interestingly it says that 27% of the consturbtion workers in London are EU nationals, which means that it must be far, far lower than the average of 7% in other places.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/mays-brexit-deal-the-legal-verdict/amp/

Been reading this and it's scary. I personally don't think we can hand another vote now. It's a democracy we can't just overthrow a vote because we don't like it. But I think we should be able to have more say in what is in the deal.

Excuse my naively but If we end end up with no deal- what happens?

"mass uncontrolled immigration "

There has been no uncontrolled immigration, hyperbolic and counter factual language

BorisBogtrotter Yes mass uncontrolled immigration, please tell me under FOM, how could you stop 100,000 EU citizens arriving here tomorrow

Some interesting stats re construction workers - I know posters on these boards are keen on facts and figures, as am I:
Estimates from the Annual Population Survey show that an average of 2.2 million people worked in the construction industry between 2014 and 2016 accounting for 7% of workers across all industries in the UK.
7% of workers in the construction industry in the UK are EU27 nationals and 3% are non-EU – compared with all other industries in the UK (excluding construction) – 6% EU27 nationals and 4% non-EU nationals.
In London, 28% of construction workers are EU27 nationals and 7% are non-EU nationals; this compares to 13% who are EU27 nationals and 10% non-EU nationals for all other industries in London (excluding construction).
Of the 165,000 EU27 nationals working in construction, it is estimated 49% are EU8 nationals, 29% EU2 nationals, 11% EU15, 10% Irish nationals and the remainder EU other; compared to EU27 nationals working in all other industries (excluding construction) 47% are EU8 nationals, 9% EU2 nationals, 35% EU15 nationals, 8% Irish nationals and the remainder EU other.

Lots more EU nationals working in construction in London than in the rest of the country, which isn't surprising. (London voted to remain.)

Source:
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/migrantlabourforcewithintheconstructionindustry/2018-06-19

On age and self employment:
The construction workforce is ageing, there was a 13% increase in the numbers of workers aged 45 years and over in the construction industry between 1991 and 2011, but non-UK nationals are younger (18% aged 45 years and older) compared to UK nationals (47% aged 45 years and older).
41% of those working in construction were self-employed between 2014 and 2016; EU8 (63%) and EU2 nationals (66%) in the construction industry are more likely to be self-employed compared to all other nationalities (39%).
33% of the resident non-UK nationals who work in construction occupations in the UK work in general labour.

Same source

Boris as above. Those figures are worthless for the construction industry. They don’t include the self employed who make up most of the industry.

Yes they do include self employed.

Interestingly it says that 27% of the consturbtion workers in London are EU nationals, which means that it must be far, far lower than the average of 7% in other places.

That would this graph?

buckingfrolicks Mon 17-Dec-18 10:39:09

People have been told the hard facts of the cost of Brexit. If they'd rather follow their own stupidity go right ahead.

I'm half inclined to agree with you and I certainly know plenty of wealthy 'citizens of the world' sort who have given up caring. They'll be fine. Depressing place to be in frankly, to not care about the poorer citizens of the UK

Here is an alternative OP: citizens' jury. Each constituency will have independently selected members of the public (keeping leave/remain ratio the same). They are given information and they debate. Conclusions are passed on to regions assemblies of a selected few of the jurists, and thence to parliament. Perhaps 100-500 people in London representing the informed opinion of all the regions of the country. They break the current stalemate. They may suggest a People's vote, or something else, or vote with May's deal. It's called participative democracy. I like it. A lot.

play.acast.com/s/reasonstobecheerful/episode-20-rescuing-democracy-from-ancient-athens-to-brexit?fbclid=IwAR2ItPFyox0W-ueQx8sc9hmmbaNfC82_RAMK7cMuaTmVXSGiAQOIhLJqzcE