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Original poster

Mrs May. Who's going to replace her as PM?

289 replies

longwayoff · 11/12/2018 08:51

After her performance yesterday it's simply a matter of time? Or is it? Who is fit to replace her? I can't think of a time when there was nobody I'd entrust the country to by voting for them but now here we are. What on earth is going to happen?

OP posts:
bellabasset · 12/12/2018 08:10

Sadly not Ken Clarke. I hope neither Bojo or JRM.

Reckon Gove, Amber Rudd and even Andrea Leadsom might be prepared to take this on. But whoever takes this on won't have the public support anyway. Will we have a general election?

ShatnersWig · 12/12/2018 08:12

Proof this morning that for a section of the Tory party, Brexit is not about securing the best future for the country, but STILL, after years of debate, about the divisions and internal politics of their own party. And in some cases personal ambition.

The time and money that has been wasted on this issue solely because of internal party politics (because that was the ONLY reason for the architect of this total shit show Cameron called his advisory referendum) is as much a disgrace as the current behaviour of a large section of the House.

I've heard some people say that millions won't ever vote again if the outcome of the referendum is ignored or a People's Vote takes place. Sorry, but I'm the other way around. I think it's the only way to try and sort this mess out. As it is, I can't see myself voting in a general election again because a) one lot can't organise an effective opposition and b) the other lot are too busy with internal politics than national interest.

sushisuperstar · 12/12/2018 08:14

How soon will the new PM be announced if this all transpires? Sorry not clued up on the process but interested to know. Guardian has a list of apparent contenders up.

maxiflump1 · 12/12/2018 08:27

@sushisuperstar

From the bbc app:

"MPs will hold a secret ballot this evening: if Theresa May wins, she will be immune from challenge for a year.
But if she loses, there will be a leadership contest, and she would not be able to stand.
The 1922 Committee sets the timetable for the contest.
Tory MPs then choose two candidates to present to a vote of the wider membership of the party.
If necessary, they whittle the field down to two with a series of ballots where the lowest-ranking person is eliminated after each round.
Then it is time for the party members to vote for the winner. The two candidates would be expected to take part in debates to put their cases forward to members before the final voting deadline.
If there is only one candidate, that person becomes leader with no need for a vote from members.
Unless there is a general election, the winner of any Tory leadership contest would also be expected to become prime minister."

tryinganewname · 12/12/2018 08:31

She's making a statement.. do you think she's stepping down before being pushed?!

sushisuperstar · 12/12/2018 08:40

Thank you @maxiflump1

AlaskanOilBaron · 12/12/2018 08:46

She's making a statement.. do you think she's stepping down before being pushed?!

She said this morning she'd stay on were the coup unsuccessful, so I rather doubt it.

AlaskanOilBaron · 12/12/2018 08:49

She's speaking now!

AlaskanOilBaron · 12/12/2018 08:50

Sounds not like a resignation

Kazzyhoward · 12/12/2018 08:52

I’ll never forgive BJ

I'll never forgive Blair/Brown for instigating all this anti-EU movement. Blair had the power to stop free immigration from the newly joining Eastern European countries, but chose not to "to rub the nose of the right" (to paraphrase) and then we had Brown and his "bigoted woman" comment showing how he disregarded legitimate concerns. Blair/Brown embraced free movement for their own reasons, not the benefit of the country. It led to the coalition govt due to the rise of UKIP and ultimately led to Cameron having to promise the referendum. Can all be traced back to Brown/Blair!

AlaskanOilBaron · 12/12/2018 08:56

Apparently the bookie odds are 3:1 that May will see another day as PM.

AdamNichol · 12/12/2018 08:58

But are there any "really good" civil servants - at least any with the kind of negotiating skills we so badly need? I'm reminded of Margaret Thatcher's remark about Yes Minister: "not so much as sitcom as a bldy documentary" wink

There are, but it brings other issues.
I'm a Civil Servant (far too lowly for any of this level stuff), and I'm part of a wholesale redesign of the civil service to work for the needs of users of government services, and not for the politicians who dream up the role of government.
Civil servants are free from the politics of politics and could design a brexit that would best fit all needs without the need to satisfy backbenchers, daily mail, et al.
The problem with this, is that civil servants are only free from the politics because there's no democratic accountability of their work. This is justified for the moment because they enact what accountable politicians tell them too - if you give them the role of deciding what to do (as opposed to how to do it), you need to give people the power to prioritise their work and hold them to account if it goes wrong. If you do that, you've just turned them into MPs

Original poster
longwayoff · 12/12/2018 09:13

'After all I've done for you, you betray me by behaving like Tories! '. The Nasty Party, Teresa, have you forgotten?

OP posts:
MadeleineMaxwell · 12/12/2018 09:26

I’m seriously starting to fear that we’re going to crash out of the EU with no deal at all at this rate. Is that the most likely scenario now? Is there any chance that TM or a new leader could get an extension to Article 50 or is that just not possible?

Any leader at any time can revoke or extend A50, that's their confirmed prerogative. Whether they will or not is an entirely different question.

No deal did just get a lot more likely, yes, but everything depends on who the Tories put up as leader and what they want to do, what (if anything) the opposition (ha!) does about it, what the DUP does about it, and ultimately what gets through parliament.

Frankly, I don't see why a change in leadership would change anything much about this situation. May's deal is the only deal we're getting. We're still faced with that, no deal or no Brexit. This is far more about Tory infighting than political reality, sprinkled with a few unicorns the ERG think they can tame.

Let's not forget the hard-right Brexiteers are incensed that Ireland has had such a strong voice in these negotiations and a lot of this is gammony bluster and outrage. See Owen Patterson's 'we are the source of the English language' ridiculousness in his no confidence letter. The absolute hubris of it all.

herethereandeverywhere · 12/12/2018 09:38

I REALLY REALLY want someone to start spelling out the dangers, short and long term, of a no deal Brexit. Loudly, publicly, all day long. That is being lost in the chaos of this Tory in-fighting.

The Leavers that I know can't seem to grasp that whilst saving the divorce bill adds to the country's coffers, the decades of shrinking economy (modelled by pretty much every reliable predictor out there) will dwarf the savings we make, making us much worse of financially over all. Then there's conflict in NI, food and medicine logistics chaos, EURATOM, open skies for flights. Pushing the country to that, because 'we voted Leave' is utter madness and I'm furious that the Tories are playing high-stakes brinkmanship with the country's future. I'm also furious with Labour for having such dickhead leadership at present. Fiddling whilst Rome burns doesn't even cover the half of it.

icannotremember · 12/12/2018 09:41

I think she's going to survive the vote.

If she loses, or wins by a small enough margin that she can be persuaded to resign (and I can't see her resigning) then I have a nasty feeling it would be Gove.

Avegemitesandwich · 12/12/2018 09:47

I can't understand why anyone would want a no deal Brexit?

Original poster
longwayoff · 12/12/2018 09:51

"Always keep a hold of Nurse
For fear of finding something worse".

"Jim", Hilaire Beloc

OP posts:
AlaskanOilBaron · 12/12/2018 09:57

I can't understand why anyone would want a no deal Brexit?

It's not ideal, but if we're not prepared for it, Juncker can do whatever he pleases.

Original poster
longwayoff · 12/12/2018 10:26

Alaskan, please explain what horrors mr Juncker will unleash

OP posts:
herethereandeverywhere · 12/12/2018 10:28

I can't understand why anyone would want a no deal Brexit?

Me neither.

In my search for those that support this I have found:

  1. The 'we won end of' 'leave means leave' people who genuinely can't grasp the dreadful negative effect on the country. It's about cheering on the victory for Leave as if it were a football score. They see not paying the divorce bill as the country being wealthier...Hmm (in addition to it being the ultimate 'stick it to them' move to the EU)
  2. Hedge fund investors/disaster capitalists who will make money out of the ensuing crash
  3. Politicians interested in their own political career as a result of this turmoil/chaos.

It's so, so depressing.

yolofish · 12/12/2018 10:33

All very depressing.

I think she will win the vote - I honestly cant believe that MPs would add a further mess to the mess we are already in.

Did I just write that? of course I can believe they would do that.

Original poster
longwayoff · 12/12/2018 10:48

Couldnt agree more herethere. What the hell Junckers got to do with it I cant imagine. Please let us know Alaskan. Oh, hang on, maybe he's got secret plans to expel UK from EU? But er that would be a good thing wouldnt it?

OP posts:
AlaskanOilBaron · 12/12/2018 10:48

^1. The 'we won end of' 'leave means leave' people who genuinely can't grasp the dreadful negative effect on the country. It's about cheering on the victory for Leave as if it were a football score. They see not paying the divorce bill as the country being wealthier...hmm (in addition to it being the ultimate 'stick it to them' move to the EU)

  1. Hedge fund investors/disaster capitalists who will make money out of the ensuing crash
  2. Politicians interested in their own political career as a result of this turmoil/chaos.^

I disagree. The problem of the EU is not going away, tamping down in this current iteration of Brexit doesn't make it evaporate.

There is serious discord across the country about the common fisheries/agricultural policies, free movement, the regulatory framework and so forth. This isn't going away.

If you believe in the fundamental benevolence of the EU, then you'll be able to tolerate the backstop (which of course stays until the EU says otherwise) as a manageable risk.

The EU Is fighting for its very existence, and it's absolutely in their best interest to make this as painful as possible for the UK. I don't think that even remainers can disagree with that.

No deal is not good, but it's not Brexits fault that the UK wasn't working through no-deal solutions two years ago - that's down to TM, the civil service, and so on.

Craft1905 · 12/12/2018 10:55

The Tories had a leadership vote in 2016. TM won. OK, her campaign was based on lies, and it turns out electing her was a terrible mistake, and the whole party is going to hell in a handcart, but that's democracy. It was the will of the party, and to vote again is obviously anti democratic.