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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think Scotland should be allowed to leave the UK and remain in the EU

527 replies

nickiredcar · 09/12/2018 06:34

New poll says that most Scots think they would be better off leaving the UK after brexit. It's time they had another vote right?

OP posts:
Nyx · 09/12/2018 11:53

"So you leave your biggest trading union with the uk and have to negotiate that. With the rest of the uk holding most of the cards."

Well yes, we would negotiate trading with the UK. Can you imagine the rUK not wanting to trade with Scotland? Scotland is England's largest export market. Are you seriously suggesting that the rUK would stop trading with an independent Scotland overnight? And we would not be throwing up the barriers to trading with the (what, 500 million customers in the) EU that rUK are currently working on.

"You then would have to wait in a massive queue to join the eu, might not be part of nato, would have to also negotiate trade deals with all other countries etc etc etc."

We would more than likely be fast-tracked into the EU. There is no queue. There are conditions. We meet all of those conditions as we are currently in the EU. Yes, negotiations would have to take place but as Scotland is currently much more EU-minded than rUK, I don't believe those negotiations would take long. We don't have the freedom of movement red lines etc that Westminster are working with.

"So just as stupid as us leaving the eu really but you can complain about that but dragging your country into a great depression is a great idea?"

Actually independence is looking like a lifeline for Scotland. To me it is the current situation within the UK which is looking like a great depression.

Bejazzled · 09/12/2018 11:57

Yeah the EU will be wetting themselves to admit another small unstable nation with a huge national debt (Scotlands portion of the UK national debt) into their club.

Nyx · 09/12/2018 12:05

Bejazzled, why on earth wouldn't the EU welcome Scotland? You've said yourself there that "Scotland's" debt is actually the UK's debt allocated to Scotland. "Our" deficit is purely a construct of the UK treasury and is a bit like your next door neighbour buying a new and expensive car for himself and then telling you that you're going to shoulder the debt and in fact help keep up the payments.

You're thinking of the Scottish economy in the union. How we would be if the union continued. Scotland more or less lives within her means if you take rUK out of the picture.

Also you are saying that Scotland has to take a proportionate share of UK debts, and not taking into account the proportionate share of assets.

How does Denmark, for example, with a similar population to Scotland, with less natural resources and no oil or gas, manage to have a better standard of living than the UK?

Tiscold · 09/12/2018 12:06

The eu said you would have to join a queue to join. The eu commission said it not me.

You wouldn't get auto memebership of nato, so would have to do all your defence yourself, including threats from russia.

No the uk wouldn't stop trading but the deal wouldn't be favourable to you. Your economy alone isn't comparable to the rest of the uk combined.

Nyx · 09/12/2018 12:19

Tiscold: theferret.scot/independent-scotland-queue-eu-membership/

As for defence, I'd love Scotland to deal with her own defence, thanks. Currently Scotland is being charged more than £3 billion a year for "defence". We would defend ourselves the same way that Denmark and Finland and New Zealand do - for less than half of what we are currently charged. We are the only maritime nation without a navy.

Bejazzled · 09/12/2018 12:21

Nyx. The national debt is not a false construct, I'm sorry but you are very naive if you think Scotland could leave the UK without debt and unfettered.

Either way, the democratic vote was no, our elected politicians should be trying to do their best for all of Its people and not continuing with the independence at any cost narrative.

Nyx · 09/12/2018 12:27

Bejazzled. I didn't say or think that Scotland could or should leave the EU without debt.

The democratic vote was no, and our elected politicians are doing their utmost to secure what the Scottish people want - which is membership of the EU. They are arguing for this even though this would probably damage their argument for another referendum (i.e. that Scotland are being dragged out of the EU against our will, which is a material change, therefore there is a mandate for another referendum). So this shows your 'independence at any cost narrative' is rubbish. I'm getting really bored of hearing it. It's just trying to shut down the voice of Scotland's democratically elected politicians.

Nyx · 09/12/2018 12:28

Sorry, leave the UK without debt, not the EU.

NothingOnTellyAgain · 09/12/2018 12:31

Yes of course they should be able to.

I'm English and if I were a Scot that's what I'd want.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 09/12/2018 12:33

Why would anyone have assumed Spain would veto Scotland I wonder

Maybe because they've got a massive problem with Catalonia wanting independence and might be worried about precedents?

I'm actually quite surprised to see such store being put on Spain's latest assurances. After all, they said they'd honour past referendum results from Gibraltar and ^still the arguments rumble on

Tiscold · 09/12/2018 12:35

the Scottish Government would have to apply for membership of the EU throughArticle 49, the formal process of gaining member status.

This is by no means a straightforward process and will likely takeyears to complete

You would be treated in the eyes of the RU as a third country and have to do WTO rules while you're negotiating. Great economic ideas that.

JustABetterPlayer · 09/12/2018 12:36

Nyx many if your points are just wrong. Denmark defence budget is 1.5billion ? Hmm

In fact your wrong on every country you mentioned.

geekone · 09/12/2018 12:36

Yes well all of the “YES” numpties thought most of Scotland wanted to leave last time, we didn’t. I think writing what I actually think you should do with your initial suggestion may be removed by MN so I won’t. Angry

Tiscold · 09/12/2018 12:43

Jacqueline Minor said Jean Claude Juncker, the commission’s president, had made clear there would be no more states admitted until 2020 – the year after the UK is expected to leave the European Union.

She said there are several countries waiting to become member states, including Montenegro and Serbia, and an independent Scotland “would join that list.” This would mean Scotland being outside both the UK and EU for an indeterminate period.

With the SNP’s leadership reviewing their stance on currency,she said a separate Scotland would have to commit in principle to joining the euro to get membership and show how it intended to bring down its huge deficit, which is even larger than Greece’s.

Ms Minor also poured cold water onMs Sturgeon’s plan for Scotland to stay in the single market even if the rest of the UK comes out, saying it would have to be proposed by Theresa May and there was “no precedent” for any such arrangement.

rejected Nationalist claims that it could seamlessly stay inside the European Union.
Ms Minor saidthat was not the European Commission’s opinion during the 2014 independence referendumand nothing had changed since. She said Scotland would instead have to apply from scratch under Article 49 of the Lisbon Treaty, a process that can take many years.

The most recent Scottish Government figures showed Scotland has a public spending deficit of 9.5 per cent of its GDP, compared to four per cent for the UK a whole and 7.2 per cent for Greece, which has been forced by the EU to impose extreme austerity.

So there you have it, you would be negotiating for years for a deal to join, and would have to impose strict financial ruled to get in. Whoope!

drquin · 09/12/2018 12:48

How do these people who know they / we would be better off in an independent Scotland know that?

Genuine question as I'm no economic, financial or political guru.

What I thought would happen with Brexit is indeed happening.
"Do you want to leave EU"
"Yeah, fab idea"

And that's it, an idea (fab or not!) - when we voted we genuinely had no idea about detail. We didn't know that the bus millions would be put back into the NHS, whether the figure quoted was correct, too low or high etc. We "believed" or not that it was right - and the same goes for every other discussion point.

In my industry, there's great debate about recognising qualifications issued by EU countries come April, and vice versa whether EU countries will recognise UK qualifications. So, I'd be daft to think there's not similar conversations in every other industry / area of life.

The detail is what will define whether I'm "better off"; my tax rates, availability of employers, ability to work & trade cross-borders, etc etc

So .....
"Do you want an independent Scotland!"
"Yeah, fab idea"

Rinse & repeat.

ElainaElephant · 09/12/2018 12:51

well all of the “YES” numpties

See, this is the kind of talk that stops both sides coming together to try to see where the other is coming from.

There should be a really good conversation going about things like brexit and Scottish independence, but instead there's vitriol and a refusal to see the others perspective and this maddening assertion that because you don't agree with them, then they are wrong/numpties/racist /snowflakes /loonies etc.

This kind of attitude is what caused the issues during the last referendum, and it came from both sides. There's no point in trying to talk to someone that just won't listen.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 09/12/2018 12:52

We would more than likely be fast-tracked into the EU ... I don't believe those negotiations would take long

Oh dear - hard to believe that some have swallowed so completely the codswallop which SNP spout Sad

AlmostAlwyn · 09/12/2018 13:03

Well, surely both sides can talk about "codswallop".

"You then would have to wait in a massive queue to join the eu"

There is NO queue.

Scotland would deal with its deficit in the same way that every other country does. By borrowing. How many trillions is UK debt at now? The debt burden would be part of the negotiation process and Scotland has NO obligation to take on any part of it whatsoever, as stated by the bank of England.

"Hackney voted remain. Should they be independent now too?"

Sure, if there's a will for it. Contact your MP, start a political party, negotiate a vote, whatever. That's the process...

Nyx · 09/12/2018 13:04

I've stated my reasons for my belief that Scotland would be accepted into the EU quickly - because we want freedom of movement and the common market etc and we are already in it at the moment so meet the conditions and agree broadly with the aims etc. So what are your reasons for thinking the opposite?

And here we go with the codswallop and numpties talk, sigh.

Monkeynuts18 · 09/12/2018 13:06

Yes, I think it should be possible and it absolutely is. But an independent Scotland should (and in fact would) have to apply to join the EU as a new joiner - it wouldn’t be ‘remaining’ in the EU, as you put it. (This would be the case irrespective of Brexit.) So they wouldn’t have any of the privileges that the UK negotiated as a whole. For instance they’d have to ditch the pound and adopt the euro.

Tiscold · 09/12/2018 13:11

The reasons are that the eu have said differently. Your defecit is bigger then greeces. Nearly double the combined uk deficit. And you think the eu would open themselves up to you with open arms. It will at least 2 to 3 years to join and you can't start the process til 2020 at the earliest.

So who will you trade with and who will prop your economy up til then?cause the uk won't give you the same trade rights you've nown

HestiaParthenos · 09/12/2018 13:22

As citizen of an EU country, (not British) I would love having Scotland in the EU.

The referendum for Brexit was an uninformed decision made on basis of false information, and it does seem terribly unfair that Scotland voted against independence in order to remain in the EU and now doesn't get independence OR get to be in the EU.

AlmostAlwyn · 09/12/2018 13:25

"they’d have to ditch the pound and adopt the euro"

Wrong. Before adopting the euro, a country must be in the ERM II programme for two years, but joining ERM is voluntary. There are 7 EU countries not in ERM and the EU has not put any timescale on their adoption of the euro.

Why would it be different for Scotland?

TheNavigator · 09/12/2018 13:26

It has been proved a logistical nightmare for the UK to leave the EU, how much harder would it be for Scotland to leave the UK? Surely Brexit has taught us that this would be a very bad, complex and costly idea.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 09/12/2018 13:46

I've stated my reasons for my belief that Scotland would be accepted into the EU quickly ... what are your reasons for thinking the opposite?

The main points in brief:

Scotland's deficit
Delaying effect of oil negotiations
EU's own comments on timescale for joining
General bureaucratic ineptitude among all parties