To wonder how many of you are ready for hard Brexit now

[keyboardkate]

I took on the mantle to start another thread. If that is not allowed, Mods delete the thread, I am not sure of the protocol. But it certainly is an interesting discussion!

If allowed to stay as my OP, let's go!

I think the report said there would be the possibility of some other aspects that the UK could bid for which would be some work but basically a very large upspin.

Yup.

Disclaimer: First time of posting on this thread, my knowledge of economics is pretty poor...

I have followed this a lot, and IMHO a lot of the Brexit vote was caused by people getting worse and worse off (caused by austerity measures) lots of press about migrants (and it seems there is a refugee/migration crisis emergency all over Europe) and many voters assuming all the refugees were coming to the UK.

My concern is that even if we do get a peoples vote on the deal, niether of those things will have changed, and the vote will go the same way as the referendum.

SO what really needs to happen is for austerity to stop, more money to be spent on infrastructure, housing, schools, training, the NHS etc and then a lot of people won't be quite so desperate to want to pull up the drawbridge and blame anyone who isn't exactly like them.

If I am correct in my (rather simplistic) assumptions, will any of the political parties actually offer us that? Corbyn it seems does, but wants Brexit, and I actually like having the EU there as a moderating force on our governments (whichever one is in power).

What do you all think is necessary to solve this?

What do you all think is necessary to solve this?

If anyone has any ideas can you write them on a piece of (white) paper and send it to the Government, I am sure they are open to all suggestions and solutions at the moment.

Thats a fair assessment sarf and well summarised. I think you're correct and, like the people we have asked to solve it, I don't know how to do it. I agree with you on what needs to be done to restore a sense of unity and wellbeing to this country. Brexit or not I think there's little chance of its being put into place although Corbyn and McDonnell would try if they were given the chance. Successfully? Probably not, the taxes required would lead to another political and economic crisis. I think we should maintain a strong alliance with Europe for all the obvious strategic and economic advantages we receive. We have put our future into the hands of charlatans, chancers, shysters, spivs and con men. I have no idea how to solve the dogs breakfast this has become. That's what we pay them for. Fingers crossed.

Lots of know it all economists on here. I’m sure you all predicted correctly the House price crash, and rise, dot com rise and crash, zero percent interest rates, gold price rise and crash etc You must all be minted.

I referred to the ftse100 companies. You know the 100 biggest companies in the uk. People are confident to invest their money in them hence the record share prices. But I guess there’s people who just talk loudly and there’s people that just quietly do. Yes some will fail but the index represents a broad basket of companies.

How is a g7 nation with permanent seat on UN security a small insignificant nation?

Why do so many people want to come here if it really is so crap?

Presumably Trading with rest of the world will improve because the eu trading restrictions will be removed. And also as the world market improves and the eu declines.

An economist is someone who will tell you tomorrow why what they predicted yesterday didn’t happen.

We're on the UN Security Council as permanent members for two reasons. We helped set up the UN. We have nuclear weapons.
That doesn't mean we are still moving forward. It means we have been great. Have been.

So Jonnyg can you explain how Brexit is going to make life better for the general public , as of the end of March next year ? Actual facts please not soundbites

We can come up with a brilliant plan but that doesn't mean it's brilliant for the other 27.

I referred to the ftse100 companies. You know the 100 biggest companies in the uk.

They are multinationals with broad international focus so share values will increase as the pound slides and they benefit from currency translations. They are also less exposed to any hits to UK GDP.

My two cents is that Britain has a real debt of responsibility to Ireland due to causing partition. People grew to live with it and work around it with great resilience. This has got even better since the GFA. Before GFA, I remember being checked by soldiers when crossing the border. Lots of businesses, infrastructures and networks have grown up around it, according to the way the border works right now. I think a lot of Brexiters don't know much about this or don't care. However, changing the border again would be an act of aggression or harm which does not look good in the overall historical context.

I hope you don't think the FTSE 100 are all British companies. I'm not even a thicko/evil expert and I know that.

we can come up with a brilliant plan

When ? Two years and still no plan at all , not sure whatever they eventually come up with will be described as brilliant by anyone , Leaver or Remainer

What evidence are you basing your predictions of trade with the rest of the world being better outside the EU, than within the EU? How do you arrive at these conclusions?

Oh that's right, economics, cause when you discuss international trade and its benefits drawbacks, thats what you are using.

When you don't like what you hear you attack economics in order to try to discredit my arguments, the cognitive dissonance is terrifying.

You realise that when we leave the EU we also leave an enormous amount of different trade agreements with 52 other countries and other trading blocs? Boris Johnson keeps going on about the rest of the world, and uses the massive increase in our trade with South Korea as an example, what he fails to tell you is this increase is down to the fact that the EU signed a trade agreement with S.Korea in 2010.

But seeing as you don't like economics or economists, I would advise you not to make statements like: "Presumably Trading with rest of the world will improve because the eu trading restrictions will be removed" Because you don't understand a jot about it.

This is further demonstrated by this statement: "And also as the world market improves and the eu declines. " Shows that you don't actually understand what is going on in the world economy, or where this erroneous point, first used by Daniel Hannan, comes from.

Oh and the FTSE highs are based on the fact that the MNCs that make the majority of the income from outside of the UK are making bigger profits because they convert other currencies back into pounds at a higher rate with the low value of the pound.

Frankly you want to discuss economics, and use it when you think its convenient, but you know sod all about it.

HTH

Of course I don't believe we can come up with a brilliant plan @frumpety . It's a shit show.
But if by some miracle we do, as all BeLeaverz say we will, it's only brilliant if 27 EU members agree to it.

Brilliant eh? Its been a long time coming so I won't hold my breath. A small gleam? Maybe. Utter confusion in the dark? Hmm.

Big international 'business' has been buying it's way into so many UK industries for many years. All the newspaper headlines proclaiming country XXX is putting a load of dosh into car making (for example). They are doing it because they see a way of making a profit in the longer term. They invest, installing new machinery that the original owners wouldn't and in return gradually take over the 'boardroom'. All was relatively well until the Brexit vote and now manufacturing in the UK (as opposed to other plants elsewhere) will suddenly get a good deal more expensive. The margins of having a decent workforce in the UK will be slashed and as for example car assembly is increasingly 'robotised' semi skilled workers in other countries without the barrier of customs look more attractive.
Nissan/BMW/Airbus will stay until the vehicles they are assembling reach 'end of production' but not invest any more in new models. JLR is already doing this. They threw a carrot down saying a new 'electric' RangeRover will (probably) be built in the UK, but that is a while off and unless the owners (TATA of India) get a 'good deal' they won't bother. Even analysis that the UK would not be a significant buyer of an electric Range Rover would be a good 'cop out' to decline manufacturing here. Similar arguments for so many other industries.

Agree 54321 with the added benefit to non EU companies of access to EU market thru our membership.

@jonnyg

Lots of know it all economists on here. I’m sure you all predicted correctly the House price crash, and rise, dot com rise and crash, zero percent interest rates, gold price rise and crash etc You must all be minted

Economists don’t do this – you’re thinking of speculators and hedge fund managers. People like Rees-Mogg, Redwood, Mr May and Farage who bet with other people’s money and hope that they guess correctly. When they get it right, they win themselves millions. When they get it wrong, the impact on the country can be so bad that the government has to step in. See the 2008 crash as a good example and consider that for these speculators to win, someone else has to lose. That someone might be you, either through a direct loss of your money, house or job or through the indirect loss of welfare through added taxation and ‘austerity’.

I referred to the ftse100 companies. You know the 100 biggest companies in the uk. People are confident to invest their money in them hence the record share prices

Several others have also pointed out that the FTSE 100 is made up of multinationals, including drugs companies, mining companies and even Coca Cola. These companies earn their profits all over the world, in dollars, euro and yen. When the Pound falls, these foreign earning become more valuable, so the share price rises.

How is a g7 nation with permanent seat on UN security a small insignificant nation?

You’re about to find out. 100 years ago Britain was still regarded as the most prosperous nation on Earth, but following two world wars and the political and technological changes that have taken place, confrontational ‘nations’ are being replaced by co-operating trading blocs, colonies have become independent of their rulers and countries such as China and India have become far more influential than before.

Why do so many people want to come here if it really is so crap?

‘Crap’ is a relative term. Working 12 hours a day in a potato field is probably back-breaking and ‘crap’ work. In Bulgaria and Romania it pays £8 a day, if you are lucky enough to find a job. In Lincolnshire it pays £8 an hour. Which would you choose?

Presumably Trading with rest of the world will improve because the eu trading restrictions will be removed. And also as the world market improves and the eu declines

What are the ‘EU trading restrictions’ that prevent the UK from trading? Do you mean the 750 agreements that govern trade between the EU and RoW that the UK is leaving on 29th March (with nothing in place to replace them)? Germany, Holland, Belgium, Italy all trade very successfully with the emerging world markets, particularly China. What is preventing the UK from doing this? To trade successfully with the rest of the world, the UK has to provide goods and services that these countries need, and do so at a price and quality that is better than what the competitor countries offer. The UK cannot do this at the moment, so how will this situation miraculously change after 29th March?

Although only a superficial and inaccurate observation. The UK 'winning' in the second world war it could be argued that due to the UK politics and negative/ comfortable thinking on investment we 'lost'.
Much of Germany and many other European counties infrastructure was 'trashed' almost completely. They HAD to invest and rebuild. They took bold steps to update and improve. German industry could only look forward.
The UK to a fair extent was only 'damaged' so applied sticking plasters and 'carried on' using outdated infrastructure that was already creaking. This was discussed here a couple of weeks ago (Westministenders thread) referring to the Marshal plan and massive loans from the USA. We spent 50 years paying that back.

@Sarf. I agree with you. Leaving the EU won't help us. Stopping austerity, investing in our public services and creating a happy and healthy society with low crime and reoffending rates and with good public transport will help us improve.

Only 1.2 billion of the Marshall plan was loan aid, the rest was grants.

The loan that we paid back recently ( well 2006) was the loan Keynes managed to get us in 1945, Marshall came later.

@Topcat, my point was that some countries invested it wisely to 'modernise'. Europe moved to diesel and electric trains, the UK stuck mainly to steam.

We spent our Marshall Aid developing a nuclear bomb of our own and beefing up our military in order to keep up our international standing.

That was all destroyed by Suez anyway.

So with hindsight we could have let the USA continue primarily with the atomic bomb and not built up one of the worlds bigger nuclear 'dustbins' on a small island. Nuclear research is all well and good and has no doubt contributed significantly but at what overall price?