To wonder how many of you are ready for hard Brexit now

[keyboardkate]

I took on the mantle to start another thread. If that is not allowed, Mods delete the thread, I am not sure of the protocol. But it certainly is an interesting discussion!

If allowed to stay as my OP, let's go!

frumpety , The interest rates should have gone up slowly over the past years, the BOE have shot them self’s in the foot now ( forget Brexit for a moment) come the next recession ( there will be one wether in or out the EU ) they have no where to go with interest rates, can only drop them very marginally ( no effect ) If interest rates have to go up ( They can’t) people on high mortgages will be unable to pay them, with out big pay rises which is not going to happen. They have other ways in a recession but QE is still on going now and has been for a decade. Still I wish I had a mortgage now instead off the 12-15 % I was paying

There is a world that exists outside of Europe you know. Countries that we can trade with like China India who are bigger markets than the eu. Countries that we have connections with, Australia, New Zealand, USA. Democracy and uncontrolled immigration were the big things for leavers. Logic and common sense will prevail. If tescos find they can’t import enough tomatoes then British farmers will grow them, when bmw finds we are not buying enough of their cars they’ll reduce the price. The doom and gloom was a con and We can now see that project fear lied to us to scare us into staying. No war in Europe, no financial crash, businesses are positive, we have full employment and, ftse hitting all time highs.

Did you mean to say interest rates can't go up ? I am wondering how quickly they would rise and to what level ? Fixed rate mortgages offered at the moment seem to be 2-3 years , so may allow people to weather initial rises. If there are associated job losses , most people I know have a mortgage based on combined incomes, as well as rate rises , it would be a perfect storm for many.

We know all about the world outside Europe , they all tend to be in trading blocs too, being in a trading bloc makes sense you see or don't as the case may be

Any links to the businesses that are happy with the current state of affairs ?

Hard or soft its pretty crappy. Confidently stating that our eu imports will continue uninterrupted and that they need us more than we need them is fantasy. Trade deal with USA dittomaybe we could flog off the royal family to Disnyland oand brinfg in a few quids.We are a small insignificant island off the mainland of a 27 nation alliance. Some people will make immense amounts of money out of this major con trick but I confidently say it wont be me. And probably not you either. Many leave voters have voted to undermine the EU subsidies that have kept their areas and local economies functioning.

Oh dear, it seems its people need a lesson in economics.

1. China is a bigger market than the EU, but not India. Although the EU is a far more advanced market than both.

1. A Trade deal with India has already been rejected by the UK because the Indian's want relaxed visa conditions to the tune of 100,000 citizens a year.

1. Australia and New Zeland have said a deal with the EU is their priority.

House price crashes do not benefit anyone, especially first time buyers.

What you are assuming is ceteris paribus, or that the house prices fall and everything else remains the same.

This is not what happens.

A house price crash first of all means that there will be a large economic contraction. Consumer confidence falls off a cliff, and those with mortgages spend extra disposable income on debt consolidation, this takes it out of the economy and lowers consumption of goods and services. Meaning many jobs are under threat.

Banks will become more reticent to lend, and will offer lower multiples of income for mortgages along with demanding higher deposits. All at higher interest rates.

People don't move, except for divorce, death or relocation. Reducing the supply of houses/homes available to buy, this means that after a short time reduction in price they start to go back up slowly.

Interest rates won't go above 1 % in the next 5 years, and won't be above 1.5% in 10.

QE is not still going on, there was a round of asset buying after the initial brexit vote.

The BOE has not shot its self in the foot, there was no where for it to go for the last decade as growth has been so low and the economy so fragile.

Arm chair economists piss me off.

topcat1980 Sorry I didn’t realise you’re no it all, House price crash doesn’t benefit 1st time buyers ? What are you on about? You’re telling me the BOE couldn’t have raised interest rates slowly over 2-3 years 0.25% at a time, then we are screwed in or out of the EU, they have left themselves with no where to go now, I can tell you the housing market soon started to pick up when the cheaper houses came on the market

Don't forget, a trade deal with the USA would come with huge strings attached - their Congress have already made it clear that it would hinge on their farmers being allowed to sell veg/meat etc in the UK without conforming to UK/EU standards. So either our farmers will have to drop standards (meaning no export to EU) to compete and will still struggle due to GBP exchange rate coupled with US subsidies (at a time when EU subsidies have been withdrawn). That would put us at a much weaker position than no trade deal with the USA. And that's before POTUS takes offense over anyone in the UK on twitter and suddenly decides to play Russian roulette with our economy.

What can you actually do to be better prepared?

topcat1980 arm chair economists piss me off, why is it because they couldn’t do any worse lately than the so called experts, They spotted the financial crash coming didn’t they, some times real life experience can can’t for just as much as your experts

Rosstac, not claiming to know everything, but I know what a house price crash would do to the economy.

Allow me to elucidate with reference to specifics.

At the moment a property worth £300,000, with a 10% deposit means that a household with £60K in income could afford it, now that is well above average and kind of makes these properties out of reach, especially for many in the South East and London.

Lets say there is a 20% fall in house prices, and that £30,000 house is now around £250,000 in value. Sounds great yeah? With a 10% deposit, and 4.5 x salary mortgage a couple or individual can get on the property ladder with £25k in savings and a household income of £50 k. Totally manageable, with two people earning the national average salary or one well paid professional.

Except for the fact that the banks will have tightened lending criteria, and you now need 25% so £62.5k in deposit and 2.5 x salary means a household income of £88k. Still well beyond the means of most.

Worse still, tighter lending criteria means people on lower incomes won't get offered mortgages too.

Lets take a cheaper house. A £200k house with a 25% fall in value is

"They spotted the financial crash coming didn’t they, some times real life experience can can’t for just as much as your experts"

In fact some did spot the financial crash coming.

And no the BOE couldn't have increased interest rates slowly over 3 or so years, we had two years of growth at about 2% but during this period had very low inflation. The economic growth we have seen since 2010 has been very anemic that it would have been very risky to increase the base rate.

Of course there is another option for the next recession, a good old fashioned bit of Keynesian intervention.

A question that has been flying around my head for a while now. All this talk of trade deals with china/india/USA & the rest of the world, what is it that we do/produce/manufacture that would appeal to thesee markets?
I understand exporting to the EU precisely because we broadly share cultural identities but the rest of the world, not so much.
So setting aside luxury brands and possibly financial services what exactly do we have that the rest of the world will be knocking on our door for?

@Jonnyg

There is a world that exists outside of Europe you know. Countries that we can trade with like China India who are bigger markets than the eu. Countries that we have connections with, Australia, New Zealand, USA.

True, but the largest trading bloc in the world, where half of the UK's exports go, is 22 miles away - not thousands of miles away.

The UK already trades with China and India, but not as successfully as Germany does. VW alone sells 4 million cars a year in China. Germany is also in the EU but is far more successful in trading with these countries than the UK. Is this because they make better products than the UK? Have better sales forces? Actually make things that China wants to buy at the right price and right quality? Why can't the UK do this - and what makes you think that once out of the EU, the UK will suddenly improve?

Democracy and uncontrolled immigration were the big things for leavers. Logic and common sense will prevail.

The UK as a Member, and you as an individual, had democratic control within the EU. You voted for your MP and MEP - some of whom never bothered to turn up but were happy to take the salary and the pension.

EU immigration is not 'uncontrolled' - there is the 3-month rule that allows countries to send people away if they cannot support themselves after 3 months. The UK is the only major EU country to have no method of enforcing this. BTW, Non-EU immigration is higher than EU immigration. This won't change post-Brexit.

If tescos find they can’t import enough tomatoes then British farmers will grow them

Maybe, but who is going to pick and process them? And who is going to buy them if they cost 3 times the price of Dutch or Spanish ones?

when bmw finds we are not buying enough of their cars they’ll reduce the price

A BMW will increase in price by about £10 a month on a contract deal - hardly likely to put off anyone who prefers a BMW over a Fiesta.

businesses are positive, we have full employment and, ftse hitting all time highs

Businesses employing over a million people are positive - positive that they will leave the UK in the event of Brexit. BMW, Nissan, Airbus etc. Unilever and Easyjet have already left. Thousands more will follow.

50,000 people have lost their jobs in the first half of 2018. Thousands more are on ZHC, so technically employed but not actually earning a living wage and all in danger of dismissal at any moment.

FTSE is high because most of the FTSE 100 companies earn their profits abroad and in dollars. As the Pound falls, these shares become more valuable, as they earn more dollars per £.

The doom and gloom was a con and We can now see that project fear lied to us to scare us into staying

And what has Project Leave delivered? The average family has already lost £1,000 a year since 2016, due to higher prices and the fall in the value of the £. The big red bus was one of the biggest whoppers ever told. The Brexit project has already cost Government and businesses billions in wasted time spent planning for the unknown. Davis likes to boast that 10,000 of the UK's smartest are working on delivering Brexit - but there is no evidence of anything being achieved. Perhaps these people and resources could have been better spent on important stuff like solving the problems in housing, NHS and healthcare, education, crime, buildings safety etc.

Well said havanana

Very well said @Havanananana

Good question drivin. Lets have a think about our thriving home production. Ok. I've thought and I find myself short of answers. Shipbuilding? Gone. Mining? Gone. Steel? Gone. Oil er no. Gas? No. Cars? Kind of but production is closely tied to other plants in EU countries. So no although we may hang on to a bit of it. Wont break any export records tho. Aerospace production? On way out for same reason. Food then? Beef? Think the BSE bans been lifted so maybe the French, Italians, Span . . . oh hang on. Theyre all in EU so no. Lamb? Pork? Dairy? Fish? Same thing. Fraid not then. Fruit and veg? As before. Financial services? On way out they need EU access. Telecomms and tech? Hmm. Probably not. So I do have doubts that China, India, USA and ex colonial countries will be queuing up for us to come round with a begging bowl. The world is laughing at us. Brexit is a poorly written episode of Dads Army. Im not finding it funny.

Did anyone see the Corbyn interview on GMB on brexit. He basically said exactly the same as Theresa May. What's the bloody point of an opposition of they don't offer an alternative idea to brexit

Corbyn is a Brexiteer. I wouldn't look to him to solve a crossword in the Sun.

He's biding his time waiting for TM to commit before speaking. I hope its worth waiting for but . . . Hmm. Honestly. What a complete and utter screw up this is. Who could have believed the day would come when so many of us would agree with a comment by Danny Dyer? Gods teeth!

So when is the much lauded white paper going to be published ? And honestly what does it mean when it is published , given that 27 other countries get to have the final say on what actually happens ?

UK car production, only the Morgan and a couple of other niche manufacturers are actually British. The very successful Mini is BMW owned as is Rolls Royce. Nissan, Vauxhall Jaguar Landrover are all foreign owned.
If you look at the WTO you can see who has trading agreements with whom, most are pretty tied up already.
Announcement the other day loads of ships for the Australian Navy. Main trouble is they mainly bought the plans, the shipyard work will be done in Australia.
Australia looks to China and the Asean countries, not so much Europe.

I heard the Australian ship thing the other day and it was delivered on radio as if it were a great and successful achievement. Laughed out loud when they mentioned it was just the plans. What have we come to? Where are we going?

Yes. Heard about the ships on the radio happily announced as if it was the whole package and ending by revealing no jobs, just plans. Hells bells.