To wonder how many of you are ready for hard Brexit now

[keyboardkate]

I took on the mantle to start another thread. If that is not allowed, Mods delete the thread, I am not sure of the protocol. But it certainly is an interesting discussion!

If allowed to stay as my OP, let's go!

Haven't RTWT so apologies if this has been discussed before but for those who wonder why the mainstream press (owned in the main part by individuals - with the exception of the Guardian, which is owned by a trust) are SO very, very pro Brexit;

ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/company-tax/anti-tax-avoidance-package/anti-tax-avoidance-directive_en

Apologies I thought this was a forum. You know where you can discuss things and maybe even have different opinions. And maybe even learn things

If you don’t like the ftse 100 try looking at the ftse all share index. It’s err difficult to explain things simply to people with their heads stuck up their asses but this would be like all the shares listed on the main market in London. That means it’s a lot of companies diversified across a broad spectrum. Same argument from me. It’s hitting record highs reflecting positive investment. Why?

And we’re on UN Security Council because we’re a stable and sensible democracy that has and continues to sort crap out in the rest of the world on behalf of the UN because it has the will and capability. How is a g7, 6th most powerful military country small and insignificant?

Sorry to upset the echo chamber. But we do live in a democracy and it ain’t perfect but it does mean that the will of the people always trumps smart arses who like listening to their own voices.

Its been explained to you why the FTSE 100 is riding high. Go look at the companies with the highest share value, they are all MNCs that do significantly more of their business outside of the UK than inside it.

This increases the level of profit when, profits from overseas assets are repatriated and converted to pounds.

You are reading it as people have confidence in Brexit, if you want to see what real investment looks like, we have a negative net inward level of investment in the UK, for the first time in many years. That shows the confidence, go look at what the car industry has invested in 2017, then compare it to 2016/2015.

We are on the UN security council because we were on it to start with in 1945 and at the time, just like Russia, France, China and the US had significant international power. We continued this by being a nuclear force, but it isn't because as you suggested we are "stable and sensible democracy" if this was the reason, why are Russia and China there?

In terms of GDP the UK might be the 6th biggest economy, but this does not make us a heavy weight in terms of world trade. We have an advanced economy, but are a relatively small market, this means that in trade negotiations other countries will probably expect terms that are more beneficial to them than they would if we were negotiating within the EU trade bloc. Countries such as South Korea, Canada, and even the US have stated that this is the case.

You can have an opinion, but it doesn't mean that its equal to others.

[And we’re on UN Security Council because we’re a stable and sensible democracy ]
That may have BEEN the position but this position will be severely compromised by the UK government's (in)activity for the last 2 years.
A SENSIBLE government would have looked at all the details for POSSIBLY leaving the EU before declaring it was planning to do so.
If you are going 'bungee jumping' would you tie the bungee on FIRST or think about it half way down?
Whoopee we have a bomb or two that we can't use.

Bellini I was being sarcastic , we both know the words brilliant and plan are unheard of in the current Government

@jonnyg

It is a forum, and you'll notice that several posters are continuing to engage with you, despite your insistence that we might be 'know all economists', 'smart arses' with our 'heads stuck up our asses' living in an 'echo chamber'.

If you don’t like the ftse 100 try looking at the ftse all share index. It’s err difficult to explain things simply to people with their heads stuck up their asses but this would be like all the shares listed on the main market in London. That means it’s a lot of companies diversified across a broad spectrum. Same argument from me. It’s hitting record highs reflecting positive investment. Why?

The reason is the same as for the FTSE 100. The FTSE All Share Index is the 600 largest companies listed in London, and again, most of these have an international presence and earn their profits in dollars, euro and yen etc outside of the UK. There are over 2,000 companies listed in London and there are over 2 million businesses in the UK, so the All Share Index is only a snapshot of the largest 600, not of the economy as a whole. The 50,000 people who have lost their jobs in 2018 can probably explain this to you.

And we’re on UN Security Council because we’re a stable and sensible democracy that has and continues to sort crap out in the rest of the world on behalf of the UN because it has the will and capability.

The UK is a member of the G7 and the Security Council based on historical factors. There are other countries in the world who are just as important but who are members of neither. In a thread about Brexit I don't want to engage in a discussion about the UK sorting out the crap in the rest of the world. Instead I recommend that you read some accounts of the behaviour of the British since 1900 to understand the cause of much of this 'crap'. You could start with the Partition of India; Palestine, Israel and Suez; Iraq and Iran; arms sales to the Middle East; colonial wars in Africa.

Meanwhile back at Brexit, which I hope you agree is a rather pressing problem right now. As you appear to be in favour of a Hard Brexit, with all that this entails kicking in on 29th March, how do you see things panning out? Will there be sufficient food and medicine? Will all imports and exports stop as the ports clog up? Will Nissan, BMW, Airbus etc begin moving out of the UK? Will investment by small and large businesses pick up again after the drastic falls that have occurred in the first half of 2018? Will you benefit if the Pound falls to parity with the Euro and the Dollar - or does someone else stand to benefit (and if so, who)?

The echo chamber awaits your response.

For further reading, if any are interested, there is a Brexit sub forum and a very long series of threads 'Westminsterenders' tracing back to 2016 which covers many aspects of the Brexit debate.
While it probably appears as a 'remain' thread, leavers have been repeatedly asked to put forward any real advantages to leaving.
Many contributors to that thread put up substantiated reasons why things may not be as rosy as the leave rhetoric may appear.

@Havanananana

How do you see things panning out? Will there be sufficient food and medicine? Will all imports and exports stop if the ports clog up? Will Nissan, BMW, Airbus etc begin moving out of the UK? Will investment by small and large businesses pick up again after the drastic falls that have occurred in the first half of 2018? Will you benefit if the Pound falls to parity with the Euro and the Dollar - or does someone else stand to benefit (and if so, who)?

Sorry to upset the echo chamber. But we do live in a democracy and it ain’t perfect but it does mean that the will of the people always trumps smart arses who like listening to their own voices.

Unfortunately you are confusing the UK’s representative democracy with a direct democracy. “The will of the people” trumps nothing in the UK, it’s just a meaningless soundbite.

@MissionItsPossible

Will there be sufficient food and medicine?

The government's own assessments suggest not. The NHS is already spending millions of pounds and hours of valuable manpower preparing for such an event. Food is predicted to run out within a fortnight (the UK only carries a buffer stock of one-weeks worth of food, which will disappear as soon as The Sun or Mail reports panic buying in the supermarkets).

Will all imports and exports stop if the ports clog up?

The head of the Port of Dover thinks so. The logistics companies think so. If there is a Hard Brexit, all 750 agreements that the UK has become null and void, so there is no legal basis under which goods can dross into or out of the UK. WTO rules only kick in after the UK has reached an agreement with the WTO members. UK hauliers lose the right to carry goods into Europe. There are just over 100 licenses available to non-EU carriers, but 10,000 lorries leave the UK every day.

Even if an interim agreement can be reached, a delay of just 2 minutes per lorry (compared with the current 'arrive and drive' arrangement) will result in 17-mile queues on either side of the Channel.

Will Nissan, BMW, Airbus etc begin moving out of the UK?

Who knows? BMW have said that production in the UK will end on the day that free and frictionless borders end. Airbus have said something similar. The Japanese Ambassador (on behalf of Nissan, Toyota etc) has stated the obvious fact that no business can operate in a country if it cannot make a profit. A million workers in the UK are hoping that these and other companies don't close their UK factories.

Will investment pick up again?

With no export markets to serve and domestic consumption collapsing, I see no reason why it would.

Who will benefit if the pound falls?

Not the general public, as prices would rise by 20-30%. Maybe the fund managers and gamblers who are shorting the pound. Somebody must be due a windfall - perhaps we should look at who the loudest Brexit cheerleaders are.

On a personal level, I feel that Brexit is the single biggest economic suicide pact in history. The idea that we can replace the trading relationships with our closest partners with nebulous (currently non-existent) trading partnerships with countries half way across the world is... difficult to believe.

At the moment, no-one seems to be clear on WHAT Brexit means (frankly, scary after 2 years of this). It seems to mean different things to different people, a lot of whom voted in favour. My concern is that while they THOUGHT they knew what they were voting for, what they wanted is not the same as Julie or Fred down the road thought they were getting when they voted leave.

People say they wanted "control of our borders" - this is often taken to mean "no more immigration". So..... when we "close our borders" to EU nationals, we will either start running out of people to do key jobs (hellooooo NHS and farming!!), or we will have to let in more immigrants, from non-EU countries. Classic example - India has been making significant noises that any trade deal with them needs to include much better immigration policies for people from India.

In the end, as no-one seems able to define exactly what Brexit will mean a) people voting for it were voting for their personal interpretation and b) it is inevitable that the majority of those people will therefore be disappointed when what is delivered (via a car-crash political policy) will not meet those expectations.

In effect - Brexit cannot fail for some people; it can only be failed (by Brexit traitors, remoaners, etc etc.). Sort of "It would all have been perfect except for that nasty EU looking after themselves/May being weak (should have been a Brexiteer)/the giant space kittens affecting how my toaster talks to me" etc.

Sorry I haven’t read the full thread. It’s just too depressing. But I’m devastated by Brexit, let alone hard Brexit. Direct knowledge from people who know how things are moving suggests that real (lucrative and high level) jobs are going to move out of the UK.

I am also worried about being more dependent on the US. Whatever bollocks previous PMs have said about the special relationship, it’s only special for the US. I don’t believe it conveys any benefits to the UK. We are just not important enough.

If there is no satisfactory resolution IMPORTS can be allowed by the government waiving the necessary customs duties or similar fudge, which would be ruinous in terms of revenue but at least keep food on tables. Without agreements nothing could be EXPORTED.
So trucks can go to Europe empty and come back with food and in theory more but that would wreck customs revenue even more.
There would be an issue with drivers as I am not sure UK drivers would be licensed to drive in Europe and vice versa, not sure on this aspect.
The car production lines probably would not stop with a movement of the machinery but production would cease for a while until parts can get in and out. Setting the production lines up is mega expensive and upping sticks would be crippling.
Departure from the EU is possible but it would take years of planning, maybe 10 years, but only triggering A50 AFTER most of the legal situations have been thought about.

@Havanananana

“Government...suggests”
“Who knows?”

There’s a lot of prediction and “could be’s” in your responses. We all seem to be in the same boat: nobody knows. We’ll all find out by the end of April ’19. If we haven’t starved to death by then

With respect to the "Government can waive the import dues" etc. This can (sort of) be done. The issue is that under WTO rules, you cannot treat one area different from another - i.e. we cannot simply allow EU traffic in with no duties if we still require duties (or customs checks...) from other countries (like Colombia, Uzbekistan, wherever).

i.e. it is an all or nothing approach to customs duties, tariffs and checks IF we trade under WTO rules.

As such, yes we COULD just open our borders.... but the cost and risk would be enormous

@MissionItsPossible

I'm happy to amend my post following your comments.

Will there be sufficient food and medicine?

The government's own assessments suggest state that there will not be. The NHS is already spending millions of pounds and hours of valuable manpower preparing for such an event. Food is predicted to run out within a fortnight.

The 'Who knows?' was superfluous. BMW, Nissan and Airbus have clearly stated what will happen in the event of a Hard Brexit.

What do you think? Are you happy to wait until April 2019 while the Brexit supporters bet the house - your house - on a good outcome?

[As such, yes we COULD just open our borders.... but the cost and risk would be enormous]
Granted but it is a bit more convenient and cheaper than receiving Red Cross food parcels for a short duration. The WTO allows for IIRC 90 days 'emergency measures'.

I was never ready for any sort of Brexit, and never will be.

Lemmings, shooting in the foot, cutting off noses to spite faces all come to mind...

My only hope is that some of those weasels in Parliament actually do stand up and say something. But it seems so very unlikely.

@Havanananana

We’ll just have to see when it comes to it. Nobody knows what’s going to happen yet.

I still don't think it is going to happen, the government are going to present a very soft Brexit in their white paper which the other 27 countries may not agree with. The loons will gnash their teeth and flail around quite a bit which will be entertaining but not in the least bit effective.

@54321go

"Granted but it is a bit more convenient and cheaper than receiving Red Cross food parcels for a short duration. The WTO allows for IIRC 90 days 'emergency measures"

OK - so your response to losing a well balanced (OK - too much on service side but you get my drift) economy, a functioning import/export business and a basic FUCKING COUNTRY THAT WORKS... is to suggest we will be OK because we can introduce WTO emergency measures????!!

I... think... I... words Just... I...

brain plops out of head

I can hear music... LaLaLaLaLaLaLa. I know - let's all ride on the Brexit bus! £350 million per week for the NHS. Weeee.........

Wait for me whatdoimean . . . Did u just say we could always open our borders???ha ha ha ha haha ha ha. Full circle. Move up I hear the music too

20 days until Parliament breaks up for the Summer, cant see a lot being done between then and the 4th of September.

Was this the music you could hear ?

@WhatdoImean
You need to keep up with the discussion.
My suggestion that you take exception to is in response to someone asking what might happen if we get 'no deal' and all ties are cut on 'Brexit morning'.
LEGALLY no ships can sail and no planed can fly. The UK cannot feed itself so supplies will start to run out within a week, especially as there will be panic buying.
My suggestion that EMERGENCY FOOD can be brought is is far from opening borders for any length of time and I would further suggest that all incoming vehicles would be 'supervised' by the Army to prevent looting. OK at a 'low key' but security would be tighter than usual. Strictly, trucks would be loaded onto ferries by EU nationals at the EU end, and UK drivers would be necessary at the UK end as they may not be allowed to drive in the EU (to be resolved if this is actually the case). Again no one KNOWS.
IF the UK 'crashes out' with no deal it will be entirely alone with NO TRADE or transport off the island until new agreements are reached.
Leavers 'accidentally' or even deliberately voted for this, and as was said the UK that 'works' is basically going to have to stop trade outside the UK until new treaties and agreements are negotiated and signed.

That should of course say no PLANES.