To stockpile food, medicine and petrol?

[Laudanumm]

So apparently we're now at very high risk of exiting the EU in March without a trade agreement with the EU. The government wanted to keep it secret, but it's been leaked that the middle of the 3 outcomes they're discussing, so not the bad one, is the port of Dover collapsing on day 1, immediate food shortages and almost immediate petrol and medicine shortages - as in, no food in the supermarkets. It's in the Sunday Times. AIBU to start stockpiling?

Oh my god, Pretzels! I thought all our orders arrived in the wings of owls like in Harry Potter.
Fucking hell! I’m going to stop being so polite and tolerant soon because thick twats have been weaponised by maniacs and have endangered us all.

Yanbu it’s going to be a shitshow

lost how do you relocate a farm? you can’t just take land and go somewhere else!!

lost you do realise that about 50% of the food we eat is coming from abroad?
It’s a not a question of saying ‘it will be a bit tricky for a while’. There is no capacity to feed the population from the U.K. atm.
And of course that’s wo the fact that growing food takes time so we would need to wait at least 6~12 months to see a change (see potatoes, wheat,meat etc...)

It's going to be mayhem. But we will get through it - we have to.

Some people might not get through it.

Trying to be optimistic - what would be the best deal possible that the UK could be offered?

Is it possible a deal can be hammered out by October that allows things to be slightly shitter (in terms of variety of food imported) and considerably more expensive (both for people buying food, and for say the NHS buying drugs) - but ultimately not bare shelves in Tesco and people not able to get hold of medication?

Is something like that a 'best' case scenario?

Aware it's still utterly shit because we only have to look at the amount of people in food poverty already to get alarmed at what will happen once food prices surge. So I still expect crime of all kinds to rise as people get desperate to feed their kids - but would still be better to avoid all out martial law and crazy riots?

Maybe naive here - (I know I am, but hey ho...) - but if the crap hits the fan and lorries are held at Dover - that is on our side...

why would they not just let 'em in, not really ideal, but when the alternative is riots I'm sure something would be done.

How do you relocate a farm? You pick up your stuff that's worth taking with you and you buy a farming enterprise somewhere else. Y'know, like relocating any large business. This is the larger ones I am talking about not the already struggling little ones.
If some people are going to suffer maybe they should have thought of that when they voted Leave.

Absent - the govt has wasted a lot of time already and the EU can’t be seen to be bending too far to accommodate a quick cake-and-eat-it (albeit a rubbish one) deal.
I think we’re at the U-turn or crash out crossroads.

Beyond - because that would be unfair to the EU 27. Chances are, too, that haulage companies aren’t going to risk their drivers and vehicles.

why would they not just let 'em in Course they would. No reason not to, paperwork is mainly for statistical purposes and goods from 3rd countries even now isn't routinely examined at all. Intelligence based for drugs etc., random stops mainly a thing of the past.
VAT, excise etc. could be picked up later in company audits but the flow of goods won't be affected, might make it easier in fact.

Agree the government has wasted so much time. But WHY though?

What did they expect to happen? Intrigued by this. What are they counting on?

Interesting thread. We are leaving the UK in the next 6 weeks (fingers crossed) so hopefully won't be too affected by this.

But I think as a pp has said it won't necessarily be catastrophic the day after we leave but will be a slow and steady decline.

what would be the best deal possible that the UK could be offered?
The best deal we can be offered is to stay in. There is no better option than that.
Failing that, a Norway style deal. SM, CM EEA EFTA. Not much would change, but we would all be a bit poorer in real terms (by a few thousand pounds a year - not money everyone has to lose.) This would not take very long to sort out - and the only thing stopping us is Theresa May's red lines.
Then there is CETA the Canada deal. But that would see us much much poorer. Would still cripple the ports, and reignite the civil war in Northern Ireland (which is the UK - it would be a civil war in the UK - not a distant problem we didn't have to think about or deal with.)
And then there is catastrofuck.

There can be no bespoke arrangement with beneficial terms just for Britain on account of the 'most favoured nation' clause that the EU has in it's trade deals with Canada/ South Korea and a load of others. This means that whenever the EU strikes anew deal with a country - if they give that country some kind of preferential access then they have to also give that same access to all countries with a MFN clause. Allowing Britain full access to the SM without us actually being a part of it would destroy the SM - as all the other countries would then be given access too. And no - the EU is not going to eat itself to accommodate our leaving them.

So those are our options. Remain. Basically remain but with everything a little bit shitter/harder/more expensive. Leave and cripple the ports/reignite civil war in NI but still have access to food in theory if not reality. Or utter chaos.

I want to be allowed to vote on that. Doesn't everyone else? #marchforapeoplesvote

I’m going to stop being so polite and tolerant soon because thick twats have been weaponised by maniacs and have endangered us all

I'm afraid I have never been polite or tolerant with the people who voted to steal my future and destroy my country. And I have no patience with those who will not engage or accept the consequences of what will happen if xyz. Reality dodging is unacceptable in adults -especially when it will affect so many people.
I understand the need to be reassured and to believe that evrything will be OK. God knows it's what I want! But we have a deadline - an actual date for when our entire world will come crashing down around our ears unless we take action to avert it. How anyone can bury their head in the sand in those circumstances is completely beyond me.

However, my sister's boyfriend voted leave and is fat. I have no compunction with killing and eating him in the event of a crash out. It's what he voted for, after all. They all knew what they were voting for.

Yeah, Reginald, businesses are happy to piss away their petrol and have assets like drivers hanging about doing nothing. Because no one has a tight margin these days. And everyone will do what we want because we are British.

Maybe just go into the garden and plant some spuds and cabbage etc

You do realise that countries outside the EU manage to survive. There are other place we can trade with ....... scaremongering nonsense

Blaa - that’s been covered already.
Try to keep up, yeah.

Ok - so what I assumed was most likely outcome (unless it goes to worst case scenario!) is what you refer to as a Norwegian style deal.

What are May's red lines on this particular option that are preventing it?

Wholeheartedly agree that the best thing would be to stay in though. I don't know how people who are already on the bones of their arse financially are going to stretch to food prices jumping. It's crazy, look how many kids already are reliant on schools for free breakfast and get hungry in the holidays, because their parents simply don't have the money.

I know, Absent. A relative has a disabled son (seven) and I just dread what could befall them. I’ve got a shortlist of people we’d evacuate (as it were) if we can and they’re at the top.

Blaablaa butbthe Issue is NOT that other countries can manage so being of the EU (even though 90+% of the countries are part of a free trade deal othervthan the Eu).
The issue is that the U.K. does not have the INFRASTRUCTURES to deal with being out of the EU atm.

This will take time, several years to implement (customs for freight an passengers, flight, medicines, police etc etc etc).
And money that the U.K. will not have any more because it will loose a lot of money from coming out.

So yes in 20 years time, the U.K. will be able to cope well. But in the mean time???

why would they not just let 'em in Course they would. No reason not to

There is a reason not to. A very good and very important reason not to.
If we have to let all lorries into the country without inspection, in order to prevent riots, then nobody will ever sign a FTA with us. Because they would get nothing out of it
Allowing our imports to become a free for all - where every country in the world can send whatever they want of any shoddy quality they want and they know it will be allowed through (and bought!) means there is no incentive for any of those countries to sit down at a negotiating table with us and hammer out things like quality control, and amounts their allowed, and not packing the lorries with drugs/ migrants/ whatever illegal thing they fancied like trafficking.
Why on earth would a country that currently had a free for all on importing anything to us agree to sit down and talk about implementing restrictions with us?
Spoiler alert - they won't.

If we allow imports to become a free for all then that is it for us as a country. No more quality control, the market flooded with cheap crap, our own workers/farmers/ traders out of business because we cannot compete with the no regulation products flooding the market. So mass unemployment - no taxes being paid. No taxes being paid means no govt spending - on healthcare, education, jobseekers allowance, pensions, the environment - you name it.

And there will be no way back from it. Because we are choosing to leave ourselves behind as an increasingly global world surges forward.

So yes, it was a naive question - but a good one. And the usual brexiteer disdain for paperwork doesn't really come into it.

blaa just to make it easy for you - most countries outside the EU are in a trading bloc. For example Australia is in two and has an FTA with the EU.

If we leave with no deal we will have nothing and not even the infrastructure to cope. Hope that helps.