To be absolutely terrified about these Brexit scenario predictions...

[freegazelle]

I think its so important people see this study based on the governments own analysis. Also reflects similar studies (one carried out by a free market US think tank I remember).

"After looking at all four options available to the prime minister, the study established that in the long-term, the amount of money available for spending on public services would fall. Under the so-called Norway option, there would be £262m less a week, under the Canada model it would be £877m, while under a no deal it would be £1.25bn.

This would mean 22% less funding available for the NHS if there was a bespoke deal, and 9%, 31% and 44% less under each of the other options."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/18/each-brexit-scenario-will-leave-britain-worse-off-study-finds

GhostofFrankGrimes

Agree it’s a mess made by Torries and this deal mess is in hands of torries and getting nowhere but JC and his band of merry men are shit too.

This is a bipartisan topic! I have never agreed with more tories (remainers) in my life and as a former labour meme we I would vote for Anna S or Ruth Davidson in a heartbeat.

On the contrary - the eu pushing us around over our own border is counter productive - the British don’t take well to blackmail

But you are right about labour -best leave them out of the argument. After all, they have literally no answers - on this issue or anything else

A shame really - an effective opposition would be a good thing

Instead, labour will remain ambiguous until they think they know which way the electoral wind is blowing.

Mays government isn’t perfect but they make labour look like a bunch of obtuse undergraduates

On the contrary - the eu pushing us around over our own border is counter productive - the British don’t take well to blackmail

Taking back control of borders looked like a good slogan on a piece of paper but when faced with reality the British government haven't got a clue how to sort NI. Laughable really.

Don’t think the border is going to be a huge issue as the EU is scoring a bit of an own goal with the obstructiveness that their rules must apply in NI.

We can just refuse and completely open our border and Ireland and the EU will have to be the ones stopping movement which will make them look like dicks a la West Berlin.

The border is already an issue, its the biggest brexit issue.

You wanted to control borders - and now you say leave it open!! Project reality.

If you want to trade with the EU you'll need to play by the rules. Same with any trade agreement. Taking back control was a fallacy.

Yep. We can just say ‘no control from us on this border’ and walk away. We expect hauliers to report goods imported.

Would be fantastic forcing the EU to be the one dividing Ireland.

On the contrary - the eu pushing us around over our own border is counter productive - the British don’t take well to blackmail

That's great brexiteer logic there. Having to respect international peace treaties is being 'blackmailed' by the EU.

I'm sure the rest of the world will be simply falling over themselves to do trade deals with the UK - given the respect we give the treaties we've signed up to.

Never heard of favoured-nation rule, I take it, Mightymucks? Without a deal we'd be under WTO rules and both we and the EU would have to enforce a border.

How do you think the DUP will feel about no border controls in Ireland but border controls at Dover?

Yep. We can just say ‘no control from us on this border’ and walk away. We expect hauliers to report goods imported.

You can't do that under WTO rules.

You will need to trade with someone. You do know that, right?

GhostofFrankGrimes, I don't understand that with the border. I've heard several people who want our borders back saying we can just leave the Ireland border open. I don't see how they reconcile both things.

I do wonder how some people are going to manage if things get worse with the economy, some people seem to be only just managing now.

The remainiacs are back...

The eu is like the hotel California - you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave....

Common sense will prevail and we will hard Brexit from these jokers

peach. They can't be reconciled. Brexit is a paradox.

I thought some of you might find the following definition of blackmail useful

‘the use of threats or the manipulation of someone's feelings to force them to do something.’

How democratically accountable is an eu that actively discourages any state leaving it?

If you can’t get rid of those who rule you, you do not have democracy.

It would seem we are not allowed to get rid of the eu.

I don't think the UK leaving the EU is or should be impossible.

However the GFA does complicate matters significantly and that should have been thought about in great detail before the referendum was even called. Then the terms of the referendum should have reflected the reality of what was possible.

But Cameron didn't do that so we're in this sorry mess.

BINO is all that will be possible in the end. There may have been other potential options out there, but the current negotiating team aren't smart enough to come up with them or get them through.

Hey, the UK has decided to leave. The EU has not forced it. Leaving, as you are now finding out with the Irish border, is complicated. Too complicated it would seem for the Tories. Although they are not quite stupid enough to follow the leaver cries of "just walk away".

Laurie - there is another option - hard Brexit

If the eu wants to erect some fancy border that’s their look out

How democratically accountable is an eu that actively discourages any state leaving it?

It's specifically the GFA that makes things so difficult for a UK exit on the terms that the UK want. That doesn't have anything specifically to do with the EU.

The situation needed a lot of careful thought from the outset that the conservatives didn't bother doing.

Ghost

Please explain to me why ‘just walking away’ is a bad option

Hard Brexit isn't going to happen. It will end up being an embarassing fudge by the UK government.

I'm in favour of just walking away now. No divorce settlement and a hard border up in Northern Ireland.

It could have been different, but no, the EU want their cake, our cake and then some more of our cake.

Sod them.

Ghost of

You and I have been here before in other threads...

So would you please answer my question - what, exactly, is so bad about just walking away?

Please explain to me why ‘just walking away’ is a bad option

no trade deal with the EU.
Looks terrible in the eyes of future trading partners.
will likely tank the pound (again)
gridlocked borders (at the ones you want to control)

Laurie - there is another option - hard Brexit

Hard Brexit is never going to get through the Commons let alone the Lords. And for all her faults, May isn't actually that stupid. Huge economic consequences for the country, breaking an international peace treaty in the process, trashing our international reputation abroad. Not going to happen, sorry.

If the eu wants to erect some fancy border that’s their look out

For the hard of thinking, I'll say it again. We need to implement a border under WTO. Or are you advocating the UK becomes completely self sufficient? Because that's likely.

I love the EU.