To be absolutely terrified about these Brexit scenario predictions...

[freegazelle]

I think its so important people see this study based on the governments own analysis. Also reflects similar studies (one carried out by a free market US think tank I remember).

"After looking at all four options available to the prime minister, the study established that in the long-term, the amount of money available for spending on public services would fall. Under the so-called Norway option, there would be £262m less a week, under the Canada model it would be £877m, while under a no deal it would be £1.25bn.

This would mean 22% less funding available for the NHS if there was a bespoke deal, and 9%, 31% and 44% less under each of the other options."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/18/each-brexit-scenario-will-leave-britain-worse-off-study-finds

If there is no deal by May 19 then by default it's a hard brexit.

Ghost of - no trade deal with the eu? Sod em - there are plenty of other countries to trade with.

Laurie - fine, let’s have a customs border under wto rules. Please explain - seeing as I am hard of thinking - how that immediately unravels the GFA?

Ghost of - no trade deal with the eu? Sod em - there are plenty of other countries to trade with.

nobody is going to trade with a country that walks away from its obligations. Its been 2 years since the referendum - nobody is queuing up to trade with the UK.

Ghost of

We are exiting in accordance with the laid down article 50 process.

How is that walking away from our obligations? We are still paying into the money pit...

money pit?

127 mil on a pointless GE.
1.5 billion deal with the DUP.
40 billion (at least) to implement Brexit.

All to make us poorer! Well done!

nobody is queuing up to trade with the UK

That's certainly not true. It just doesn't fit your armageddonistic agenda is all.

There are currently 14 trade work groups in discussion with 21 countries. 70 Countries have actively engaged with the UK about future relationships.

I'm in favour of just walking away now. No divorce settlement and a hard border up in Northern Ireland.

Do you remember the civil war in the U.K. when that border was previously enforced? Over 3,500 people died and many more were injured. And yes, before you claim 'The Troubles' happened in Ireland, remember they happened not in the ROI but in the north which is part of the U.K. - of those deaths only about 100 were people from ROI, all the rest were from Britain or Northern Ireland.
That's what you want again is it?

Laurie - fine, let’s have a customs border under wto rules. Please explain - seeing as I am hard of thinking - how that immediately unravels the GFA?

Under the GFA the people of NI have the right to identify as either Irish or British. Whacking up a hard border and patrolling it (which we will be obligated to do under WTO rules) will understandably undermine those who identify as Irish.

For context, there are many people around the border who cross it multiple times a day, work in one jurisdiction and live in another, have property straddling both sides (so how the fuck that would work in reality is anyone's guess).

The border is a very sensitive subject for NI people. There is a significant chance that sectarianism will kick off again if this is imposed.

It saddens me the degree to which UK leavers don't give a shit about any of this, but having grown up in Northern Ireland during the troubles, I know how fragile that peace is.

Somerville

Ok - what will make you dystopian future come to pass? What is the link between a customs border and getting to that?

Do you remember the civil war in the U.K

Yup, I was stationed in NI at Aldergrove and am fully aware of the history. If the IRA want to re-arm and murder people again then we'll have to go back to arresting them and sending them to jail.

Laurie

I give a shit about it but I will not be held to ransom by it

There are currently 14 trade work groups in discussion with 21 countries. 70 Countries have actively engaged with the UK about future relationships

And they're all going so well

Have a think about what these other countries want from us - as evidenced in negotiations so far.

India wants visas. Well that's tricky, given the reasons for exiting the EU in the first place, so we've had to back off a bit there.

The US wants a favourable market for products unexportable to the EU itself (low grade, hormone filled meat for example). I'm not sure how favorable that is.

China sees a great opportunity to exploit us, given how much we rely on their imports.

We're not in a strong position with all these trade deals. And why on earth would we be? Once we've left the EU we're a small and insignificant country.

Yup, I was stationed in NI at Aldergrove and am fully aware of the history. If the IRA want to re-arm and murder people again then we'll have to go back to arresting them and sending them to jail.

Right, so destroying the GFA and a return to violence is worth it for Brexit. Peace was hard won and it appears, sadly easy to throw away.

I give a shit about it

Not a shred of evidence for that if you're advocating a hard brexit.

I give a shit about it but I will not be held to ransom by it

The only thing holding you to ransom is your own mind.

If the IRA want to re-arm and murder people again then we'll have to go back to arresting them and sending them to jail.

That worked so well last time.

Right, so destroying the GFA and a return to violence is worth it for Brexit

Stop for a minute. The EU, if it wanted, could help keep the status quo if they really wanted too, couldn't they?

But they appear to want to make it as difficult as possible, so sod them.

That worked so well last time

It actually did.

They got rid of most of their weapons and Northern Ireland is still British. They knew they couldn't win.

Laurie - and your assertion that Brexit should be abandoned in case the criminal gangs of the ira start over again is morally dubious and approaching indefensible.

Britain has as much right to self determination as anyone else.

It actually did.

HA. That's actually the stupidest thing I've ever read on this site and that's saying something.

Laurie - you are wrong - we fought the ira to the negotiating table. By the time of the GFA they were paralysed due to our successful infiltration of their network

If the IRA want to re-arm and murder people again
It wouldn't just be IRA. Loyalist paramiltary would be at it too. And the British army again.

then we'll have to go back to arresting them and sending them to jail.
Are you referring to Operation Demetrius where over 300 innocent people were interned? Or the Guildford Four? Or the Maguire Seven?
That went well for Britain before

If we go back to war with the IRA then I will lay the blame solely at the feet of those that run the EU - whoever they are, I'm not really sure.

And your assertion that Brexit should be abandoned in case the criminal gangs of the ira start over again

That's not what I'm saying if you actually read my posts.

Brexit needed really careful thought from the outset. It didn't get it. It's a total fucking shambles right now and that's a big part of the reason why.

It wouldn't just be IRA. Loyalist paramiltary would be at it too

Yes they would, both sets of gangsters would start up their businesses again.