To be absolutely terrified about these Brexit scenario predictions...

[freegazelle]

I think its so important people see this study based on the governments own analysis. Also reflects similar studies (one carried out by a free market US think tank I remember).

"After looking at all four options available to the prime minister, the study established that in the long-term, the amount of money available for spending on public services would fall. Under the so-called Norway option, there would be £262m less a week, under the Canada model it would be £877m, while under a no deal it would be £1.25bn.

This would mean 22% less funding available for the NHS if there was a bespoke deal, and 9%, 31% and 44% less under each of the other options."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/18/each-brexit-scenario-will-leave-britain-worse-off-study-finds

Also, those who still violently want to remain do have a problem - the sky was supposed to already have fallen, but it hasn’t. I concede we haven’t left yet but the remain lobby do have a ‘crying wolf’ problem

NHS is already on its knees (have spent too much time in hospitals & using health service, recently)

These are predictions for 2034!!... Reputable economists are often very wrong just 1 or 2 years ahead. No forecast can reasonably predict 16 years ahead

That's true. The future could be MUCH MUCH WORSE than the forecasts in OP suggest :(.

The nhs ‘being on its knees’ is a separate problem to Brexit.

I understand op wasn't purely on about NHS but no1 (hardly any1) wants to acknowlegde the fact that this country has been in a mess for over a decade, brexit is a baby in comparison. The NHS was never meant to be used as it is today, it is not (and hasn't been for a long time) fit for purpose. The welfare state again isn't fit for the strain that's being put on it. Our children are starving, being poisoned, and taxed to death before they even get their first job. But brexit is the problem, of course it is how silly of me.
Im in no doubt that some people voted leave because they are racist, a few more because they followed in families footsteps without having an opinion themselves and are sheep but there are others (the majority of leavers) like me who voted leave because something has to change and we don't/didnt know what else to do. If there had been a choice to remain but that there would be real change then that's how I would have voted but no the remainers fixated on the 'racist', 'stupid', 'uneducated' bullshit and still to this day use that to dismiss anyone who admits to voting leave... There's a word for that.

There are crops rotting in the fields? well I haven't seen any but I take your word for it. If that's the case then there are some jobs for those who can work but are on benefits then? It's not forced work. It's a job that pays (so no it's not workfare), therefore reducing the huge tax bill spent on unemployment benefit, money that can then be redirected to health/social services. Everyday I get alerts about new job vacancies, there are 1000s of jobs on offer just in my area (average sized city) currently but people say they can't get a job? Bullshit, they are just lazy, there is nothing wrong with picking fruit, cleaning bogs, etc, it helps pay the bills AND helps the rest of the country cos every person taking a fruit picking job not only reduces the tax spend (oow benefits) but helping to pay more money into it.!

Every one tries to make out like it's so difficult (you know cos they get paid more if people think they have a harder job), it's not it's really simple... but nothing's going to change, I won't sit down from shock when brexit doesn't happen and I won't sit down from shock when nothing changes and the NHS fails completely, when there are riots in the streets (again) and when the promise of a wage that meets the cost of living doesn't happen.

I notice also that lots of people complaining about brexit and how it will 'bring about the end' aren't actually giving any feesable suggestions for change?

Going to bed now to have dreams of a place where people wake the fuck up, start thinking for themselves and realise the truth.
x

failed attempt number 4562 of project fear for remoaners to stop Brexit.

When will the boring remoaners give it a rest?

Now that the EU has rejected all the government's plans for Irish border Telegraph exclusive here and with such a short period of time to go. I'm pretty certain that worst case scenario is now Norway-type option. Still bad financially, but far from worst case scenario. And quite possibly the whole Brexit thing will fall apart when the Tory party implodes over having to accept a customs union to solve the NI issues.

The Euroskeptics spent 30 years moaning. I've at least 28 years of catchup to do.

BUT, the NHS is failing anyway (and was in trouble before the brexit vote)

The NHS is failing because of under-investment. It's being starved to death.

The government has imposed ridiculously costly mechanisms like the internal market, so that it will collapse under the weight of its own bureaucracy. They'll privatise more and more bits of it so that private healthcare providers can make a fortune and be grateful to the government that made it possible.

The ludicrous situation where consultants on £100k a year are standing round idle because there aren't enough beds to accommodate post-surgery patients is just obscene.

@hey

of course the NHS staffing problem is linked to brexit. 10,000 EU nhs workers have already left. 40,000 nursing vacancies - there's no hope of filling that gap from UK workers, and the salary is way too low to sponsor non EU nurses instead.

They were discussing rationing chemotherapy treatment because of staffing problems. These are the consequences.

Prediction is a cost of £88 per household per week or an equivalent of a 13% tax increase.
But hey, plausible academic study is just another remoaner scare story....

Don't forget the damage we will be deliberately inflicting on our closest neighbours, especially Ireland. I don't understand why they have any good will for us at all.

I love the way the Eurosceptics on here are trying to say that the NHS and Brexit are unrelated when it was your great leaders Johnson and Gove who linked them in the first place by plucking that £350 million figure out of thin air and sticking it on the side of the Brexit bus, remember?

Of course the health of the NHS is linked to how well the UK is doing economically and how much money is available in the treasury pot.

And Brexit and the NHS are inextricably linked owing to issues of recruitment, scientific research and development, the procurement of drugs and equipment and membership of organisations like the European Atomic Energy Community and the European Medicines Agency.

Do you really think restrictions on the free movement of people is going to help the recruitment of doctors and nurses? Have any of you been watching the programmes about the NHS on the BBC recently; half the surgeons featured are Italian or Spanish.

See picture here.

Oh and there is the small matter of the Euros 3.5 billion in loans supplied by the European Investment Bank to the NHS since 2001.

But no, they are not connected at all

Don't forget the damage we will be deliberately inflicting on our closest neighbours, especially Ireland. I don't understand why they have any good will for us at all.

Speaking as an Irish person, the good will is fast disappearing.

iled attempt number 4562 of project fear for remoaners to stop Brexit

Oh thats just silly

Talk about bigging up your part

frankschickens and the other brexit supporters are broadly right. As long as you have enough wealth and social capital, you'll be fine. Nothing to see here.

frankchickens

still waiting to see the well-reasoned arguments for leaving the EU.
No you aren't. You are waiting to hear them so you can dismiss them as "stupid, bigoted, ignorant" etc

No I wouldnt dismiss them. I would be happy to hear just ONE reason that’s Evidence and fact based.

@saltcrust fab coherent post thank you.

Unfortunately because you know all that (an expert and we don’t like them) and have facts backing you up.... like actually real loan agreements, figures of staffing deficits etc, then this will be dismissed.

Unless of course like Theresa may you plucked a number (100k overstayers) which actually fact checked resulted in 4K people.

Madness utter madness that people don’t care.

Baffling.

Brexit will make us poorer, whichever model we follow ... unless you're someone like JRM, who can speculate on currencies and the like, because you have pots and pots of cash.

It's not a done deal ... yet. There's a campaign pushing for people to get a vote on the 'deal' - once it becomes clear what it is and what it will mean for all of us (October). Seems reasonable.

It is indeed baffling Pikehau and user1471etc it's great to know that not everyone has given up and are resigned to the "inevitable"!

I just wanted to say to Idobelieveinfairies86 that I have never subscribed to the view that leave voters are "stupid/racist/ignorant". I think many of them like yourself submitted a genuine vote for change. But given that all change for the good whether it be in housing, education, or improvements to the NHS, requires funding behind it, I don't understand how voluntarily making it more difficult for ourselves to trade with our nearest neighbours (43% of our goods and services are traded with other members of the EU) by introducing barriers and tariffs, is going to help the very people Figment mentions who have no social capital or wealth.

It's strange isn't it how our politicians are happy to load the blame on the EU when in reality many of the issues raised by Brexiteers as reasons why they voted for leave (funding of public services, provision of infrastructure, and construction of housing) in fact relate to policies of the UK government and are exclusively national matters!

In summary, we have blamed and then sacked the wrong group of politicians!

The ludicrous situation where consultants on £100k a year are standing round idle...

Once in a while I get to drink with a consultant. I don't think he's on £100k & he's never idle. Even if his surgery gets cancelled he'll get reassigned to something else (roles he's not suited to, but heyho). He says that the real financial drain is locum & agency staff. They get to charge exhorbitant rates. And they work at all levels & every role: nursing, cleaning, radiographers, GPs, consultants, etc.

In summary, we have blamed and then sacked the wrong group of politicians!

Oops sorry don't know why that posted again!

How about modifying the plans for HS2? That is going to cost at least £100billion with much benefit going to developers and for politicians to save face. They need to spend money for better connections in the North and some other areas. We don't need out-of-date "high speed" rail that cuts half an hour off a trip to Brum but that doesn't even take you to the city centre. Faster and more reliable internet would do the job for most businesses not chucking people out of social housing they've lived in for many years and causing horrific pollution around the building areas

Coconutella
To follow on from my previous point, even if these predictions were believable, they represent the difference between what the economics expect were we to remain in the EU. Assuming they expected 2.5% annual growth equates to 40%+ to 2034. That more than offsets all but the worst scenario.... so even this study doesn’t support the apocalyptic conclusions being given by some of the doom-mongers on here!

Rushing - so forgive hasty reply - but the point remains that the data shows how much growth the UK would forego as a result of Brexit - we would be less well off than if we had stayed in the EU.

So whether or not we would have achieved growth, it would be well below what we would have achieved (and what would have been achieved by our EU neighbours).

Either way it would mean that leaving the EU includes a decision to accept that there will be less funding available in general and for the NHS than if we had stayed in the EU.

If people understand this and still want to leave - fine.

But what is not fine is people suggesting that it will make no difference!

That's true. The future could be MUCH MUCH WORSE than the forecasts in OP suggest sad.

Very true... we could all be incinerated by thermonuclear warheads by then... or not