AIBU or are we all going to be trapped in the UK from next March?

[Clarissalarissa]

So, Ryanair and Thomas Cook are inserting clauses in their booking terms to say that if your flight abroad doesn't go ahead because of Brexit that's your problem. No doubt others will follow. If any deal is ever done, to allow planes to fly, it is bound to be a lot more expensive than it is now.

Is everyone planning many years of UK-only holidaying?

Presumably the bookings for Ireland that the Op is talking about is to NI from the rest of the British Isles, as obviously, we won't be able to fly into Dublin either, the ROI being in the EU?

Obviously, I'm talking about prospective customers from countries like France and Spain deciding to head for Ireland instead of the UK. Republic of Ireland. Who are benefitting in a number of ways from our idiotic falling out with and departure from the EU.

I swear some remainers forget that there is a world beyond and outwith the blessed EU. Not everything outside it is the US/Third World

and i swear you don't realise that you are completely surrounded by the EU and completely enmeshed and entangled with it on every level.

The naivety is truly astounding. All we hear is "We'll just leave, it's going to be fiiiiinnnneee!!!" with a smile plastered on your face..... HOW? Some facts please, some details of how any of it is going to work? Just one actual plan would do...?

Don’t be silly OP

Melanie
My DH (and tens of thousands of others) worked for 3+ years to fix the Milenium Bug. The cost was enormous but nowhere near what the cost would have been if they hadn’t done it.

The point is that we don't know what brexit will look like. So I would assume that companies who rely on a relationship between the UK and EU countries are making plans so that they don't lose out financially. I will never understand why we voted for something that we had absolutely no knowledge of. I can't do anything about it now, I know. However I'm guessing we'll have a few years of hardship (nothing new given how things have been anyway) and then everything will normalise. But I do wonder what damage may be done in the coming years. I just hope by the time ds leaves school in 6/7 years, the economy is in a good way.

An awful lot of people can fit on a ferry (especially once imports/exports have dried up due to the lack of BIPs) but if those people are British, their passports and driving licences will not be valid after Brexit (or not valid abroad in the case of driving licences) unless there has been a deal which specifically addresses these issues.

I am old and can remember when many people did used to go abroad on the ferry. It took bloody ages unless you lived very near a ferry port.

New ferry routes are opening up between the ROI and the continent in order to bypass Britain. There's a ferry called Celine that will go between Ireland and Belgium and another from Santander to Ireland.

I’m starting to wonder if all these hysterical Brexit threads are started by Russian bots to destabilise the U.K.

Not the way Theresa May does them! Remind us, how have the negotiations gone about the NI border? Oh yeah....they haven't.

A lot of that is because the Tory's are intent on trying to push Ireland into taking some/all of the financial hurt from Brexit. They are trying to treat Ireland as the little country that can be pushed around, somehow forgetting that now (and for good if Brexit happens) Ireland is the much, much more powerful player because Ireland is part of one of the world's most powerful international unions. It's so bloody stupid.

What's frustrating about this argument is that the people who want to see Brexit succeed are jumping up and down saying 'it will be fine, nothing to see here' when the reality is if it is to succeed they should be jumping up and down shouting at the government to acknowledge this risk and sort it out on time.

With open skies, and many other things, the UK doesn't have any relationships with any countries in the world. Its not just an EU thing: there are no bilateral arrangements because the UK's arrangements have always been made as part of the EU.

This doesn't just mean all new agreements need to be reached: it also means that most of the specialists who negotiate this agreements come from other European countries (and in some cases the UK) and currently work in Brussels, because that was sort of the point - everyone didn't need to hire their own negotiators/specialists on various obscure topics, Europe was able to work together and cut costs.

Everything is eminently fixable - the problem is the UK government hasn't been putting in the effort needed to fix it. I know lots of people who are experts in particular fields who are horrified by how little effort, and how much ignorance, has been portrayed by the government on their issue areas. We see here its people from tourism concerned, but there are lots of other areas as well.

It is all things that can be addressed, but things that have multi-year lead-in times. Michael O'Leary loves his press and talking rubbish, but despite that, leaving things this late really does mean there's a risk aircrafts might be grounded for some period of time, there may be travel chaos, there may be food importing chaos - think of the snow and multiply it by 100. Imagine what Heathrow looks like when flights are cancelled for a day or two and now imagine what could happen if it was a week, or ten days, or a month while negotiations ran long. There may even be civil unrest based on how things are going so far with Northern Ireland. Alternatively, the UK may get deals on all these things in time but get really bad deals, because they've left it so long and they haven't recruited the right people, or simply don't have access to the right people.

So if you're a Brexit supporter - honestly, stop saying it will all be alright. Start pressuring your MPs and put pressure on people to act now so it actually might be alright, because while it may seem like scaremongering, there are enough signs at this point that a lot of things will be very messed up unless serious action is taken soon.

Of course we'll still be able to travel abroad. Why of course? Just because it's unthinkable that we won't be able to? A lot of things that are happening under this government would have been unthinkable 2 years ago. Those in charge genuinely don't appear to care at all about the effect of their political in-fighting on the viability of our businesses, and on our individual lives.

I'd think the opposite was more likely sleep. It's easier to tell everyone to shut up and hope a nation sleepwalks into a disaster, then to prompt dialogue along the lines of "er, should we be thinking about this potential crisis?"

I’m starting to wonder if all these hysterical Brexit threads are started by Russian bots to destabilise the U.K.

No but I think there is significant evidence that Russia did use that strategy to influence your referendum and did destabilise UK massively and possibly irreparably.

It’s interesting how in real life I hear nothing about trans or Brexit amongst everyone I know and yet on here it’s as though Armageddon is around the corner. I’m starting to feel suspicious.

@Clarissa you are so right about the Tories doing the previously unthinkable. They are already preparing to deflect the blame for the breakdown in negotiations on to the EU, with the absurd 'Eurobullies' storylines in the right wing comics. Still, as long as the Legatum Institute and its cronies make a mint buying up underpriced assets post-collapse, it's all good, right?

This charming little line is from you, SleepFreeZone: I’m starting to wonder if all these hysterical Brexit threads are started by Russian bots to destabilise the U.K.
Do I really sound like a Russian Bot? Why don't you advance search me?
The UK has already successfully been destabilised. Millions of UK citizens are worrying about their future. You have to expect a few of them to post on MN!

This thread should go in classics, so when brexit does fuck up trade and travel which it inevitably is -unless you are farage, Boris or jrm of course, then we can all look back at the dicks on this thread and laugh.

Some of the things people predicted because of Brexit has already happened. And we have not even left yet.

Of course we'll be able to travel after Brexit. It might cost a lot more than it does now, and we might be subject to hours of delays on our way to the ports for the years it takes to build the necessary infrastructure (not yet begun) but if you can cope with those inconveniences it will all be fine.

You haven't explained why you say "of course", when there is no indication that agreements on flights will be made in time for Brexit. And even if the only problem were high cost and delay - that on its own will go a long way to killing off the UK tourist industry. There are plenty of places to go to in Europe that don't have those problems.

Thomas Cook might need to find "different legal structure in order to be able to operate our airlines going forward".

The UK-based tour operator is including a "Brexit clause" in the terms and conditions of tickets sold for flights after March 2019 – when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU – in order to allow it to "step back from this contract”.

”The EU and the UK government don't provide us clarity on which basis we can sell our tickets. Of course we will have a [Brexit] clause too”.

www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/thomas-cook-downplays-risk-of-post-brexit-ownership-446262/

SleepFreeZone
Sounds like you don’t mix with people who are interested in politics, current affairs, the future of our nation, etc

@sleepfreezone - in real life, I hang around with lots of academics, and quite a few people who work in sectors likely to be very effected by Brexit, eg research scientists. It is bloody all people talk about and has been for ages. I slightly envy you your real-life people who don't care.

A large number of academics I know are making plans to leave the UK, friends who had planned to move back home to Scotland after several years in the States are postponing that move by a number of years because they're worried about the effects it will have and want to wait till the dust has settled. I was talking to an NHS doctor a while back who was really concerned about the likely staffing impact. However, I have family who move in circles that are very unlikely to be directly effected, and I'm sure they think like you do - why is anybody worried, nothing will happen for ages.

You don't have to be Russian to think there are people concerned about these issues - most businesses plan in multi-annual cycles, academic recruitment of both staff and students is usually nearly a year out. The number of people concerned is only going to grow as we get closer and closer and there is less and less certainty coming from government.