Theresa Mays speech

[Joeymaynardslimegreendress]

Carry on up the kiber? The dinner scene

Math - yes I had read that article previously and obviously she was hugely disappointed with losing her previous majority as you would expect, however, most people being familiar with how our political system operates the question remains, did she win the election or did she lose it?

Sorry, that should have said - how could the Tories have gained a bigger percentage, even

Perfect in the first past the post system, it matters where the votes are concentrated. If the 5.5% are spread around constituencies that are heavily Labour, they won't affect the outcome of the seat. That's why elections are won and lost on the marginal constituencies. Which sucks if you don't live in one.

But they didn't win
You can call it a win if facing facts isn't your forte.

😂😂

I’m pretty sure the Tories are in govt at the moment Math - the only way that is possible is if they won....

Which they did.

They won enough seats to form a minority govt.

Facing facts clearly isn’t your forte!!

Yoko

I know plenty of people under the age of 45 who vote Conservative.

Me included.

Ah I see - thanks Pebbles :)

Apologies Yoko

Meant pp for times4

Ankles - yup me too.

Perfect
You only need a simple majority to win a seat. If turnout is 10,000 in a constituency and the vote share is 6,000-4,000, the leading candidate has won, and if it is 9,999-1 the candidate has won too. If that 9,999 vote total is an increase over the last time then that is an increase in vote share without increasing the number of seats won. An increased majority in several constituencies results in a national increase in vote share, but that doesn't necessarily mean an increase in seats won.

Similarly, an increased vote share in constituencies that were ultimately lost is also counted. If the Tories swallowed up votes that went to UKIP last time round, they may have gained more votes in individual constituencies but still lost the seat.

She lost it, Time4choc. She is hanging on in government because of chutzpah, and because she was willing to bribe the DUP. It's a minority government.

If you are under 45 and voted Tory you are statistical anomalies.

They won enough seats to form a minority govt.

By definition, you only form a minority government if you did not, in fact, win enough seats to form any other sort of government (i.e. one with a mandate).

You are in government as long as you don't piss off the party that has agreed to support you, be it ever so small, or regional, or not at all representative of your own core membership or anyone else in the country if it comes to that, or composed of right wing, bible thumping, apartheid supporters, and equipped with its own paramilitary branch. This does not make you the winner of the election.

This does not make you the winner of the election.

It also doesn’t make you ‘not the winner’.

ankles et al - and?? An anecdote doesn’t make a statistic. Maybe you hang around with Tory voters.

If you are under 45 and voted Tory you are statistical anomalies.

Voting is private; the only way a statistical analysis can be made is by relying on self-reporting - this is subject to all sorts of confounding variables, bias & error.

The same self-reporting measures were/are used in the analyses leading up to the election re voting intention & they were wrong.

Statistic inferences are merely a subjective tool when things cannot be objectively measured.

I still struggle to get past the horror of the DUP and the £1million bribe from the Tories.
It was all over in a flash and new headlines replaced it the very next day, but months on, I'm still finding myself thinking WTAF?
Hypernormalisation has a lot to answer for.

FaithHope - enough can be gleaned from self reporting that we can be pretty assured that Tory voters are in the main over 45. The alternative assumption is that literally everyone who answers a pollster lies through their teeth. Is this a reasonable assumption? I think not.

If you lost a working majority, lost seats, lost a commanding lead in the opinion polls, ended up depending on the DUP to hang onto power by the skin of your teeth, vote to vote, and if every time your leader is involved in any major occasion where other people are present with the spotlight on her (Grenfell aftermath, recent party conference) the question of a new leader crops up - and that is within her own party, forget the opposition and the general public - you should realise that your government has become nothing short of a circus. It goes beyond losing - it becomes a slow motion train wreck.

If you lost a working majority, lost seats, lost a commanding lead in the opinion polls,

Stilll got more seats than any other singular party though.

ended up depending on the DUP to hang onto power by the skin of your teeth, vote to vote, and

Labour would also have needed the DUP onside to form a govt - as well as every single other non-Tory MP.
Only the Tories were in a position to form a govt (with or without the DUP).

Out of interest Math* -* who do you actually think won the election?

FaithHope - enough can be gleaned from self reporting that we can be pretty assured that Tory voters are in the main over 45. The alternative assumption is that literally everyone who answers a pollster lies through their teeth. Is this a reasonable assumption? I think not.

Do you have a link to the study?
I’d like to read it.

@Faith

Here you go:

www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election

Number 1 in key findings:

1. Age was even more of a dividing factor than in 2015 (and the biggest we’ve seen since our records began in 1979). All the swing to Labour was among under 44s (and highest of all among 25-34s), while there was a swing to the Conservatives among over 55s. This is the biggest age gap we’ve seen in elections going back to the 1970s. Although (as in previous elections) the swing among women and men overall was similar, there was a difference between young men and young women. Among 18-24 year olds, Labour increased its vote share much more among women than men.

So, on reading just the headline page they acknowledge that the findings are problematic for various reasons & should be treated with caution.

Hardly a meaningful or objective result.

Problematic is not the same as invalid.

It means you can't use the numbers as being exactly right, but it's fine to use then as indicative or directional.

Having used this sort of data for a long time, the only result in the age category I would hesitate to use would be the 45-54 at +3% Conservative. That's within the margin of error. The others are pretty definitive.

The women's result by age is even more stark. I'd happily use all of those.

It seems disingenuous to quibble over the statistics. The fact that poll after poll has shown that fewer and fewer young people (and even young middle-aged people) would vote Conservative has led to alarm bells ringing within the party itself. Several senior Conservatives have spoken out about it, including Damian Green, David Willetts and Michael Heseltine. While they can hope that there will be some natural drift as people get older, this won't be enough to win them elections as their core vote begins to die off.

Personally, I would never vote Conservative for ideological reasons, but I can see how they could win over more centrist voters by having policies that will address young people's concerns. Young people face having lower standards of living than their parents. The Tories need to have policies on housing, the NHS, transport and Education that will appeal to younger voters. Many 25-45 year olds will have children in the Education system who have seen the effect of budget cuts first hand.

who do you actually think won the election?

It's one of those cases where they all lost:
May lost her majority and with it her authority.
Labour did much better than expected but still didn't win.
The SNP lost a lot of seats but still have the most Scottish seats by a long chalk.
The Lib Dems won seats, but still disappointingly few.

Potential minor winners - DUP, Tories, Labour and LibDems in Scotland.

Poll on a miniscule 7505 people. Location of people not specified. Polling done online ( which excludes many) and by phone ( mobile? Landline? Time of day? Who answers unknown numbers?)

Even ipsos stress the figures are estimates. No one with a brain even gets a wall painted with an estimate.

Special the Conservative party itself admits they have a problem with the youth vote so they are obviously taking notice of the polls.