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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

We're going to have to call a halt to Brexit aren't we?

999 replies

Hufflepug · 31/07/2017 09:51

Lukewarm Remain voter here. Understand that the Government has to listen to 'the will of the people' and all that.

But for the love of God, now that it's clear what absolute economic suicide we're committing surely we've got to put a halt to it whilst the govt and the opposition work out what the fuck's going on!

AIBU

OP posts:
TheNightmanCometh · 08/08/2017 17:42

No I don't think at the last second we will back out of this, because if the Tory's do this they will never ever be able to stand for Election every again.

Inbetween everything else, this is the key and most relevant point, I think.

You've said the Tories won't back out because of political reasons, which I guess means you know in theory they could. I think most people who've looked much at this get that it's a process that could be stopped, so that takes us then to the question of whether it would be.

So first of all that presumes it'll be the Tories decision. Which is interesting because they don't actually have a Commons majority even now, and certainly on the most recent data, they'd lose seats to Labour if there were a GE called now. Obviously there might not be another one before March 2019, or if there is the Tories might improve their position, but on our current best information, they won't. There are also likely to be by-elections before then, which historically doesn't usually favour the governing party.

The Tories are reliant on the votes of the DUP, and bear in mind also that Ken Clarke won't vote for any Brexit deal. So that's 315 Tory votes max, unless they can manage to win some by-elections before then. As Sinn Fein don't take their seats, they'll potentially need a majority of 643 MPs, so 322. They will be reliant on the DUP.

Now remember the DUP simply won't have a hard Brexit. For all the posturing, they know how fucked they'll be if the border issue isn't sorted out. You saw how hard they bargained for something as relatively straightforward as cash. There isn't a chance in hell they'd vote for a Brexit that didn't settle the border question to their advantage. How likely is that to happen? This is before we even begin to consider the Lords.

And the thing with Tories is that, as you sort of allude to, they're pragmatists. If we don't get a decent deal sorted out in 18 months, which we're not going to because trade deals take a long time even with the best will in the world, they'll be presenting the population with a turd. A turd that will make us poorer. If you know politics, you'll know how quickly Conservatives historically disassociate themselves from that kind of thing- remember Thatcher and the poll tax? They've never been big on ideology over practicality. It's why they've managed to hang around for so long.

None of this is to say the EU is wonderful, or that it isn't potentially possible to design a mechanism and circumstances that might make Leaving to be of benefit to us. But those aren't the mechanism and circumstances we're dealing with now.

TheNightmanCometh · 08/08/2017 17:44

Based on the way the vote went, rather a lot of people agree with me on this

Assumption.

A lot of people agreed with you that they wanted to leave the EU, yes, but you have no idea how many of them want to leave at any cost. We know that at least some voted Leave because they thought we'd be financially better off, ie it was an entirely pragmatic vote. You do not know whether they'd still want to leave if they thought we'd be worse off. They might not even have decided that themselves yet.

TheElementsSong · 08/08/2017 17:46

I have a tested a certified IQ OF 138, Which allowed me to become a member of MENSA, so I am in the top 10% of the country

Dammit mummmy, you've pushed the wind-up too far and broken cover!

Kursk · 08/08/2017 17:51

The brexit negotiations wont go well, The UK is overconfident that they will get a good deal
When in reality the EU will be looking to use this as a warning to the other member states.

I expect that the UK are going benefit from leaving in 15-20 years, however the British people are in for a long hard ride! The great recession was just a warm up.

TheNightmanCometh · 08/08/2017 17:58

It's the timeframe as much as anything. Even if we did think everyone we're negotiating with has our best interests at heart (which includes new trade deals with countries outside the EU) these things just take ages. There's never been any chance of them being sorted by March 2019. You can be a Leaver and still get that.

mummmy2017 · 08/08/2017 18:01

Nope, you called me thick, and stupid, which I am not. I am also a mother and the thought of telling my children I had the chance to vote out and didn't use it, didn't sit well with my heart.

People might say they didn't vote for this, but what did they think would happen when it said stay or leave on the forms.
It was quiet clear what would happen, and if other votes didn't understand what they were voting for what on earth did they think they would get? The chance to cherry pick the best bits. That was never on the cards.
I said" No I don't think at the last second we will back out of this, because if the Tory's do this they will never ever be able to stand for Election every again" Because someone else posted they thought this would happen, and it's not going to and the EU have also said we are leaving and there is no going back. So it should have been they can't do this as it's never going to happen.

mummmy2017 · 08/08/2017 18:03

There's never been any chance of them being sorted by March 2019. You can be a Leaver and still get that.

Exactly why I have said on here many many times, there will be no deal.

MsHooliesCardigan · 08/08/2017 18:06

mummy If you have a brain the size of a planet, why won't you answer any questions about the pesky details of Brexit?
How do you think Brexit is going to impact on NI and the GFA? What do you think about a hard/soft border?
And please don't reply with a rant about the evil EU. It's a specific question and one that is concerning a lot of people.DH is Northern Irish and his DM is absolutely petrified about the implications of Brexit.

Enchantedflamingo · 08/08/2017 18:08

rolls eyes

You can have a high iq and not one iota of common sense mummy.

Don't read docks then fresh, I was picking up on someone else's point. The question still makes sense - do we have the required infrastructure for enhanced customs regulations etc.

TheNightmanCometh · 08/08/2017 18:08

What do you think will happen then if we have no deal mummy? Am intrigued.

Fresh8008 · 08/08/2017 18:13

That really just about sums up the Leave campaign? Who cares about the details?!! FFS What ignorance, when the details are negotiated I will read about them and then I will decide how much I care.

we will need holding parks for lorries at the ports while they are checked Why? we have imports from all over the world and the customs are done electronically before the boats dock. The lorries just drive off. Did you actually think people stop and check the contents of every container on every lorry coming over in a boat? They don't.

I think this is pretty much what those 'negotiating' Brexit for the UK think, which is why we're fucked. I bow to you superior telepathic ability to read the minds of our negotiators. Could you PM me the next lottery numbers?

They are all fiddling furiously while Rome burns Typical headless chicken syndrome.

I wonder if this was how the Moon landings were organised ... yea I can imagine the conversation.

Nasa: "Lets leave fly to the Moon"
President: "Sounds difficult, tell me the details"
Nasa: "We haven't worked out the details yet"
President: "Then we are remaining on earth"

Or

Nasa: "Lets leave fly to the Moon"
President: "Sounds difficult, tell me the details"
Nasa: "We haven't worked out the details yet"
President: "Ok, get to work & update me with the details when you have worked them out."

Kursk · 08/08/2017 18:15

TheNightmanCometh

No deal= UK told by the EU "in that case sit down and shut up"

TheNightmanCometh · 08/08/2017 18:16

People might say they didn't vote for this, but what did they think would happen when it said stay or leave on the forms.
It was quiet clear what would happen, and if other votes didn't understand what they were voting for what on earth did they think they would get? The chance to cherry pick the best bits. That was never on the cards.

I agree it wasn't mummy, but there were clearly some people who voted Leave because of things we know aren't going to happen. The NHS claim, for example. There are some people who voted Leave purely on the strength of that. You and I might think that was pretty naïve, but it's what some of them did. With that in mind, how do we know what they'll think once they realise it's not happening?

The problem is that unfortunately, it wasn't clear at all. People weren't given information about whether they were voting to leave the EU but stay in the EEA, keep FOM or get rid, leave the single market, anything like that. So everyone was forced to be shoved in together. Same is true for a lot of Remainers: there are people who want to leave the EU but because of the lack of clarity, felt they had no choice but to vote to stay in an EU they don't approve of.

mummmy2017 · 08/08/2017 18:25

MsHooliesCardigan All I can say is I am truly sorry, It was never an issue that was spoken about in great detail when the debate was spoken about, I know it must frighten a lot of people, and I truly hope the need and want for peace in Ireland is strong enough that things can be sorted out by the Political Parties. I do often wonder if this will in the end result in a united Ireland.
Hard or soft, I still think it's not a case of either, as there will be wins and loses on all issues.
We gain our fish, we lose something else. However since the EU say they aren't willing even talk about this yet, nothing is know.

TheElementsSong · 08/08/2017 18:26

It's all gone beyond parody. Argument from raw size of IQ? Just BeLeaving it's going to be great is enough to create wonders? Conversely, not BeLeaving enough will be sufficient to destroy the sunlit uplands?

Perhaps in light of these threads, though, Leavers and Remainers might be able to agree that Dear Leader Theresa is wrong about one thing?

The country is not "coming together" to "back Brexit".

LineysRun · 08/08/2017 18:31

Keep tightening those lederhosen, mummmy

LineysRun · 08/08/2017 18:33

Oh God it's not claig on performance enhancing caramac, is it?

Fresh8008 · 08/08/2017 18:41

do we have the required infrastructure for enhanced customs regulations etc Surly it will be different customs regulations, don't see why it needs to be 'enhanced'. Probably need new IT systems (which of course the UK could cock up) but its not impossible to sort that out.

What do you think will happen then if we have no deal

IMO, We will have some of the important parts of a 'deal' in 2019. Will will then have an implementation/transitional period of 1-3 years when more of the 'deal' is agreed. And some non critical parts of the 'deal' will be left until after we have fully left. I think its simplistic to just lump this all into one thing called a 'deal' and that it all has to be sorted by 2019.

CardinalSin · 08/08/2017 18:44

I'm trying to work out where Mummy is on this scale...

We're going to have to call a halt to Brexit aren't we?
mummmy2017 · 08/08/2017 18:45

No Deal.
We don't pay anything to EU. There was a deal but the EU Parliament said no.
We then use the WTA, and this means not just us but the people either buying or selling to us suddenly find things cost more.
The planes don't fly to EU which very quickly gets sorted, as it cost the countries the UK Holiday in Billions in lost revenue, as British didn't book the summer holidays this year, as they were worried about whether the planes would be able to land. The Ferry's and the Tunnel have record breaking profits this year. As does Ireland as people took the ferry, stayed the night and caught a plane from there instead.
Farmers in the EU riot, as the food rots in the fields.
The UK farmers get give grants to increase yield.
Eu Car industry in trouble as they have cars they can't sell.
Banking have found a way round it all, not sure how, but can you see the fatcats willing to go down without a plan.

MissionItsPossible · 08/08/2017 18:46

I agree it wasn't mummy, but there were clearly some people who voted Leave because of things we know aren't going to happen. The NHS claim, for example. There are some people who voted Leave purely on the strength of that. You and I might think that was pretty naïve, but it's what some of them did. With that in mind, how do we know what they'll think once they realise it's not happening?

And the same can be applied for some who voted to Remain because they were afraid of the scare-mongering and the country falling into chaos. It's arguments like that (and I'm not saying it's necessarily wrong, although I don't agree with it) that, as another poster pointed out above, won it for Leave. The assumed, condescending arrogance that people could not have possibly understood what they had voted for. Leave or Remain. That was it. Intricacies regarding how this would be sorted out was always down to politicians and everyone knew that. I keep seeing the arguments about how people who voted Remain aren't getting a say as if everyone who voted to Leave is getting invites to the HOC to discuss exit plans Confused

mathanxiety · 08/08/2017 18:47

Voiceforreason if Brexit is such a no brainier for British farmers and fishing communities, and the CAP is such a clear disaster, why are Irish and Northern Irish farmers and fishing communities so pro-EU?

The contention that there was a real problem caused by the EU that only Brexit could cure rings untrue. What happened was that farming and fishing communities lost their minds, forgot how FOM brought farmhands to work the land, forgot about the subsidies, and got swept away by rhetoric that was heavy on patriotism and nostalgia, and carefully chosen buzzwords that were generated by the research of the likes of Cambridge Analytics.

The farmers and fishing communities of Britain were suckers. Not those of NI.

mathanxiety · 08/08/2017 18:47

Voiceforreason if Brexit is such a no brainier for British farmers and fishing communities, and the CAP is such a clear disaster, why are Irish and Northern Irish farmers and fishing communities so pro-EU?

The contention that there was a real problem caused by the EU that only Brexit could cure rings untrue. What happened was that farming and fishing communities lost their minds, forgot how FOM brought farmhands to work the land, forgot about the subsidies, and got swept away by rhetoric that was heavy on patriotism and nostalgia, and carefully chosen buzzwords that were generated by the research of the likes of Cambridge Analytics.

The farmers and fishing communities of Britain were suckers. Not those of NI.

Fresh8008 · 08/08/2017 18:48

The country is not "coming together" to "back Brexit".

Aside from Mumsnet I rarely hear Brexit mentioned on TV or in newspapers. The country is moving on. On maybe its a MSM conspiracy?

Actually the last thing I heard was the Spanish minster saying Gibraltar wont be a pawn in Brexit. Seems the negotiators are getting on with their job.

MissionItsPossible · 08/08/2017 18:49

No Deal.
We don't pay anything to EU. There was a deal but the EU Parliament said no.
We then use the WTA, and this means not just us but the people either buying or selling to us suddenly find things cost more.
The planes don't fly to EU which very quickly gets sorted, as it cost the countries the UK Holiday in Billions in lost revenue, as British didn't book the summer holidays this year, as they were worried about whether the planes would be able to land. The Ferry's and the Tunnel have record breaking profits this year. As does Ireland as people took the ferry, stayed the night and caught a plane from there instead.
Farmers in the EU riot, as the food rots in the fields.
The UK farmers get give grants to increase yield.
Eu Car industry in trouble as they have cars they can't sell.
Banking have found a way round it all, not sure how, but can you see the fatcats willing to go down without a plan.*

As someone who voted to Leave I find that just ridiculous.