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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Election predictions thread

188 replies

OliviaPopeRules · 08/06/2017 00:00

Regardless of who you voted for I wondered what you predict the result will be?

My guess is 115 seat conservative majority.

OP posts:
waitforitfdear · 08/06/2017 12:36

piglet Grin

notangelinajolie · 08/06/2017 12:48

Cons increased majority from mainly SNP and some gains and losses from Labour and Lib Dems.

Labour increased also.

LibDems wiped out.

Greens who are they?

Ukip 2 MPs

SNP down but not out.

Charmageddon · 08/06/2017 12:53

Oh piglet, that's awful 😂

My prediction is 100+ for Tory

Think Jezza may stack a big proportion, but concentrated in seats which are already Labour.

My nightmare prediction is Jezza pulling a Trump - and I haven't fully discounted that yet!

BeyondThePage · 08/06/2017 12:53

Labour asked to form a minority government, putting Sturgeon in the position of power

  • mwahhhhh haaaaaaaa haaaaa... Grin

Back in the real world a 60-70 Tory majority.

Charmageddon · 08/06/2017 12:54

Beyond 😱😱😱

TheNumberfaker · 08/06/2017 13:05

Hung parliament.

tiggytape · 08/06/2017 13:12

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

The80sweregreat · 08/06/2017 13:15

I think that UKip will wind up after this - they wont win one seat and a lot of people who may have voted for them in 15 will now vote Tory.
They may rise again if the Tories really mess up Brexit i suppose.
hopefully this will be the end of them though.

MiaowTheCat · 08/06/2017 13:21

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

takesnoprisoners · 08/06/2017 13:22

If David Milliband is back, Labour will be back with a bang. They will have a center-left agenda which is such a happy middle.

This time, I am guessing a majority of 50. Not quite enough, and not worth this expensive election.

Boulshired · 08/06/2017 13:24

I really like Jonathan Bartley of the Greens I feel robbed of a potentially good leader for the country a bit of a waste with the Greens as it could take decades for them to have relevance. I see no UKIP and 1/2 Greens.

TawnyPippit · 08/06/2017 13:29

I'm not sure the LibDems will be wiped out. I think they are at a depressed level, below what is "normal" for their (likely fairly static) voter base and I think they could win seats back in their traditional constituencies.

I also think it will be interesting as to whether the UKIP votes in the last election will automatically re-direct to one party or other: my guess is not, partly because a vote for UKIP last time probably covered quite a wide range of positions, from swivel eyed dyed in the wool nationalists to more moderate "Leavers" who wanted a say on Brexit. But I think that former UKIP voter base will mostly just dissipate so no one will automatically pick up the UKIP votes.

Will be very interested to see how the SNP do. Will they be nudged aside by Scottish conservatives.

Also a key question is what would it take for Corbyn to resign? How bad would a Labour collapse have to be? Or are the Yvette Coopers and her ilk really a generation who are now out of leadership contention and like Burnham need to look elsewhere.

I do not see a Labour victory but I don't think I see a collapse either. But I have been wrong about Brexit and Trump, so don't think my thoughts have any real resonance!

honeysucklejasmine · 08/06/2017 13:31

How much of a majority do you think the Tories need for TM to stay as PM? There do seem to be some sneaky moves going on behind her.

MinkowskisButterfly · 08/06/2017 13:39

Sadly I think a strong Tory majority. I desperately want Labour (even a labour coalition would work for me) but am not getting my hopes up, I did that with brexit and I thought that there was no way Trump would be elected. However, I was gratefully wrong with France - I had a terrible feeling le pen would win, but just don't think I will be wrong this time I think Tories will romp home.

Bambamrubblesmum · 08/06/2017 13:45

Conservative with 53 increase.

Big labour party internal dust up. Corbyn steps down. Fight for leadership begins. Yvette Cooper comes out swinging.

SNP reduced. UKIP gone. Lib Dems slight increase.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 08/06/2017 13:50

if local turnout is reflected in national turnout, Tory landslide.

Get out and vote please people.

ErrolTheDragon · 08/06/2017 13:54

If the young could get off their arses to vote you may be right.... Although I'm not a Labour supporter and it suits me personally that they don't, I'm angry at their apathy and for disenfranchising themselves

My 18 yo is off out to vote right now, she bothered to vote in the council election too. I doubt it was Labour for either, they're not all entranced by Corbyn, and some do realise that 'free tuition' has to be paid for by someone at some point.

The80sweregreat · 08/06/2017 13:56

still lots of apathy around - asked my hairdresser if she had voted, she said that she couldnt as she was working - but the salon closes at 8pm, she would be home in 20 minutes and that gives her hour and half to pop out to vote. She said that unless they reduced the council tax or her car insurance, why should she vote for anyone?
People dont see that it matters to them and she even seemed surprised that there was an election going on at all. I kept quiet after that..
i still predict a Tory win and a big one at that -a hung parliament would make things very tricky, but i cant see it happening - would rattle the Tories though and that wouldnt be a bad thing! i hate their smug faces and wont be watching much on tv tomorrow.

Jupitar · 08/06/2017 13:57

The poll research company qriously who were one of the very few to correctly predict the brexit vote, are saying that labour will win, so I'm hanging in to my hope until I hear differently Smile

MorrisZapp · 08/06/2017 13:57

SNP down by more than five seats.

The80sweregreat · 08/06/2017 14:01

Jupitar, really? all i am seeing , even from the left wing press, is a Tory victory or even a landslide.
I cant see the grey voters going for anyone else.

FluffyPineapple · 08/06/2017 14:09

A Tory win in England
A labour win in Wales
SNP win in Scotland

dontcallmelen · 08/06/2017 14:11

I think, conservative victory but am hoping for a hung parliament so some chance of accountability re brexit & cuts in education etc.

BeyondThePage · 08/06/2017 14:17

I think, conservative victory but am hoping for a hung parliament

You know the SNP are currently the third party of the UK... the idea of "that" woman, with her nationalistic views, having anything to do with English governance is heinous.

WhenSheWasBadSheWasHorrid · 08/06/2017 14:18

Tory majority of 50-60

Labours resurgence will probably just ensure Tory voters turn out in bigger numbers.