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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To wonder wtf is going on in Wales?

385 replies

brexitstolemyfuture · 24/04/2017 22:20

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-labour-poll-wales-yogov-majority-seats-first-time-century-a7699776.html%3famp

Tories predicted to get a majority for the first time in a century. I thought this was fake news, but no it's real Shock

OP posts:
GraceGrape · 26/04/2017 19:33

The Conservative government has been in power for 7 years, albeit with 5 of those in coalition. Those 7 years have shown an increase in poverty levels, use of food banks, homelessness, refusal of benefits to genuinely disabled people. The increase in these things in the two years since the majority Tory government has been even more noticeable. These things are directly attributable to Conservative economic and welfare policies.

"Austerity" was a deliberate economic and political choice. The argument that there was "no money left" doesn't add up when the government was able to afford tax cuts for the wealthiest. It has been a deliberate policy to target the poor and weak. And now Wales, the poorest region of the UK, wants to vote for more of this. It is really hard to fathom. The Tories have some very good people behind the scenes writing their soundbites.

BertrandRussell · 26/04/2017 19:38

"became full of people like Bertrand who scoffs at the idea at why they are not thinking like them,"

Bollocks. I scoff at people of all parties and opinions who don't think.i despair of all the Labour people who voted for Corbyn despite the fact that he was unelectable-because they didn't think. I despair of the WEP- because they haven't thought through the gender issue. I despair of the people who rejected probably the best prime minister we never had because he made a pragmatic political decision. I am an equal opportunities and all parties scoffer.

Justanotherlurker · 26/04/2017 19:40

I think a lot of people voted against their best interests in the last general election.

I'm sure they bow to your intelligence, however, I think the current polls indicate otherwise, if only all those "stupid people" just voted the correct way..

We are getting to the turning point where MN turns into an echo chamber and then ultimately blows up after the GE with wails of "but how!, I dont even know any Tories apart from the ones who spit at the poor or are racist!!!!"

BertrandRussell · 26/04/2017 19:42

"We are getting to the turning point where MN turns into an echo chamber and then ultimately blows up after the GE with wails of "but how!, I dont even know any Tories apart from the ones who spit at the poor or are racist!!!!""

I know lots who aren't either.

HumphreyCobblers · 26/04/2017 19:42

I am an equal opportunities and all parties scoffer.

Grin
Justanotherlurker · 26/04/2017 19:48

I am an equal opportunities and all parties scoffer.
Grin

OK, fair enough, I apologise

OhtoblazeswithElvira · 26/04/2017 19:48

mulledwine Our GP surgery has one or the worst patient to Dr ratios in Europe. Over half the patients are over 65s, with many and complex conditions which means a higher workload. So the surgery cannot recruit and keep doctors. Most of the over 65s are English people retiring in Wales. However politically you cannot discuss these issues:

English pensioners migrating to Wales

Failure of successive governments to plan and tackle the extra pressure that over 65s are putting on the NHS

These are no-go areas for political parties. It is easier to blamed uncontrolled immigration. For the record, there are 3 EU patients in our surgery (thousands of patients). The doctors are 1 EU, and 2 Indian.

CopperRose · 26/04/2017 19:49

I am an equal opportunities and all parties scoffer.

I like this phrase Grin

squishysquirmy · 26/04/2017 19:51

I get that in some parts of the country (South East in particular) an increase in population has led to pressure on housing, increased rents and house prices, and threats to green belt land. This increase has come from both immigration and movement within the UK (largely due to jobs being disproportionately distributed across the UK).
However is that the case in Wales?
Has the population increased that much, especially in the more deprived areas?
I couldn't find many graphs which dealt with just Welsh figures (except for one from a slightly dodgy source), but most of the info I could find suggests that the population in Wales Fell in the 1980s, then increased, but not by that much compared to England: About 5% over ten years.

joanopie · 26/04/2017 19:57

As has been mentioned before, Fishing industry, steel industry, textiles, manufacturing etc. etc. The EEC was a trade agreement and it became a political alliance with a super head in control. As a nation under EU laws we were not allowed to help save our steel industry, however, both France and Germany disregarded this law and helped out their manufacturing industries (cars I believe??) Similarly, many, many of our farmers are paid NOT to produce milk, butter, cheese, etc. so that we have to buy from the EU. Also, for information, we have a trade agreement with the EU (as I am sure you all know) but did you know we are in deficit to the EU because of the lack of balance in our manufacturing and being forced to buy their products to keep other countries' economies afloat? We DO NOT have a current trade agreement with the USA and we are in profit in this trading relationship - enough said! And btw, I am totally sick and fed up of being called moron, turkey, idiot etc, etc. because I voted for Brexit. I have never called a remainer this, and I never will, even though I disagree vehemently with their stance. Please give us Brexiteers the same respect.

squishysquirmy · 26/04/2017 20:00

"So if you're working class you have to vote Labour and if your middle class you have to vote Tory....that's ridiculous, you should vote for party that you believe in the most. Your background or social status should have no relevance."

.....No, I don't agree with this.
But if you are wealthy, it makes sense to vote for the party who will decrease your taxes.
If you are less wealthy, and cannot afford private healthcare etc, it makes sense to vote for a party which will fund the public services you rely on - not just the NHS but schools and councils too.

Council funding is being slashed at the moment: on top of the cuts already made, there are plans to completely axe centralised council funding. More wealthy councils will be able to recuperate some of this money through increased business rates and council tax and occasional sweetheart deals like Surrey. The poorer ones will not.
This is a huge fucking deal, and I have no idea why it isn't getting more attention.
www.theguardian.com/society/2015/nov/25/local-government-councils-funding-gap-critical-budget-cuts-social-care-spending-review

CopperRose · 26/04/2017 20:08

On immigration in Wales, the area I'm familiar with is Llanelli.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10822956/EU-elections-2014-Is-immigration-good-for-Britain.html

The full Telegraph article is very long, but worth a read - it explains how the Polish migrants to Llanelli have benefitted the economy, but also describes the disruptive social impact (excerpt below).
The article goes on from this to describe how the impact was mitigated eventually, but the intervening period was awful for the locals - I have family there, so had heard first hand from them what is described below:

"...Of course, economics is only one facet of the European immigration debate. Even people who believe immigration brings economic benefits can accept that it can also have social consequences and costs. After all, the sudden arrival of large numbers of outsiders in any community would almost inevitably mean disruption.
^So it was in Llanelli. The town and its nearby villages have a population of around 80,000. In recent years, as many as 5,000 Poles and other Europeans have arrived.
Many work at the Crosshands Food Park, a cluster of food processing plants north of the town centre and part of an industry that relies on foreign labour: 41 per cent of all food processing workers are immigrants.
In the early years after 2004, a lot of the new arrivals were young and single and most spoke poor or no English. Keri Thomas, a Labour member of Carmarthenshire Council for a ward in central Llanelli, said that led to problems in his community.
“They were bringing people into town, they weren’t vetting them. They couldn’t speak English, they didn’t have anywhere to live. They were bringing in the people the country doesn’t need. Some of them had criminal records. They were horrible.”
Such was the local unease over immigration that in 2008, the British National Party won a seat on the community council in Llandybie in the Amman Valley above Llanelli, something almost unheard of in Left-leaning Wales.
The following year, the trend continued nationwide. The BNP won two seats in the European Parliament.
For Vanessa Marsh and other residents of Cllr Thomas’s Tyisha ward, it all got too much.
She helped found the Safer Community Action Group, a group of volunteers intent on tackling modern Llanelli’s social problems, including some associated with immigration.
“A lot of them were single males who seem to think it is acceptable to drink all day in the streets, and urinate and leave their rubbish around,” she says. “It reached such a place that we decided we had to do something about it.”
Such complaints are not unique to Llanelli. Several police forces and MPs have reported similar problems of anti-social behaviour linked the arrival of largely young, single male migrants.^..."

WrongTrouser · 26/04/2017 20:17

I'm a bit surprised Bertrand that you don't seem to be able to countenance the idea that it is not "immigrants" that people who voted leave in part because of freedom of movement, are unhappy about. None of these issues are simple, but to try to pretend there is no difference in the effect on people of a steady level of immigration over many years and a sudden large increase in immigration in a short time, without planning for the necessary infrastructure and services, is really not helpful.

Tapandgo · 26/04/2017 20:53

*But if you are wealthy, it makes sense to vote for the party who will decrease your taxes.
If you are less wealthy, and cannot afford private healthcare etc, it makes sense to vote for a party which will fund the public services you rely on - not just the NHS but schools and councils too. *

Disagree - I'm wealthy but vote on matters of principle, not self interest. We need a government that will safeguard and develop the institutions that will enable ALL of us to live healthy, well educated and productive lives. We need a strong NHS, good schooling for all regardless of where you live and how much you earn and employment opportunities developed in all areas of the UK and an end to the abomination of 'zero hours contracts'. Affordable housing and a cost effective and reliable transport network is essential to our country thriving. I would always vote for the party I believe would see these as central to their ambitions.

cheval · 26/04/2017 21:36

It was actually the Common Market that we joined, a trading co-operative. Might have been better to stay like that. I did vote to stay in and fix its many problems from the inside.
As for Wales, I m half Welsh, from a very Welsh speaking family. It does not surprise me they are harking back to non existent times. EU did so much in South Wales (Cardiff area voted to remain) but rest of the country has a massive chip on its shoulder so will just kick at whoever it thinks are to blame. Usually it's the English. At the moment, it's Labour.

Travellingmamma · 26/04/2017 21:53

I'm Welsh living in England, my parents still live in Wales. They voted to leave and have always been labour voters. However my dad is now seriously considering voting conservative. The main reason being that TM has a brexit plan, and JC can't control his own party let alone the country. It's as simple as that, when there is no real competition how else are people supposed to vote? I live in a conservative area, I vote conservative, I also voted remain, but I'm very much of the opinion that what's done is done, no amount of moaning will change it, let's just crack on. The labour MP in my hometown is a good guy and may win his seat, but it'll be on his personal reputation, not his party.

pontynan · 26/04/2017 22:23

user149 genuinely interesting to hear you talk about 'Britain', the 'UK' an aspiring to be 'British'. I'm also Welsh and have never felt remotely British and cannot ever imagine aspiring to it. Of course Wales is in the United Kingdom but in my head the UK is no more than a political entity I have never really identified with.

CopperRose · 26/04/2017 22:41

Travelling, I think the MPs like the one you mention in your parents' area will do alright (regardless of party) when they've genuinely worked for their constituents.

It's the 'I'm alright, it's a safe seat - they always vote x here' MPs that should be concerned.

flyingwithwings · 26/04/2017 22:43

The Labour Party had no chance this Election, whoever would/is their leader. The simple reason is the mere 50% swing of UKIP voters or 5% to the Conservatives is equal to 33 Labour seats !

Therefore even if the Labour vote % remained at the 2015 level the Conservatives would still acquire a 82 seat majority .

However, what is quite 'shocking' is seats such as 'Hartlepool' are likely to be lost ...

The Labour party are looking at losing 80+ seats and being reduced to 1935 levels.

What do you expect to happen when you try a rerun of the 1983 Manifesto that was 30 years out of date then never mind in 2017.

squishysquirmy · 26/04/2017 23:10

Tapandgo: You make a very good point! I was wrong in what I said - it is in all our interests for as many people in the society we live in to be healthy, productive, and well educated. And there is a moral argument for it as well. I can understand why someone well off may vote to give themselves higher taxes due to their values, but I do find it harder to understand why someone who is struggling financially would vote to cut taxes for the rich and to cut the public services they rely on. Once, I would have understood the argument that the Tories were more financially responsible, and that a good economy meant more money for public services. I would have understood the argument even if I didn't always agree with it.
However, I can't see how any can claim with a straight face that the current government is prioritising the economy. They have become more anti-business than labour, driven by the narrow ideology of the extreme Tory fringe.

caroldecker · 26/04/2017 23:41

Can we define tax cuts for the rich?
Increase in personal tax allowance of £5,000.

Conservatives only help the rich?
BBC's more or Less from Friday last week - data from Institute of fiscal studies.:
Average living standards (after inflation) have increased since 2011
2008-today: Lower income families are considerably better off
2008-today: Richest 10% have about the same living standards
Top 10% have seen no income growth over the last 10 years or so
Earnings of people between 90k and 120k have fallen the most over the last few years compared to any other group

squishysquirmy · 27/04/2017 00:22

caroldecker Tax cuts for the rich: Cutting the rate for those earning over £150,000 from 50% to 45% whilst slashing spending in other areas. Many Conservatives want to cut that further now.

Unfortunately, if we want decent pubic services a lot of the tax burden will have to fall on the middle class/wealthyish: you can't tax the poor because they don't have much to take. You can try to tax the very wealthy, but they are rich enough to move a lot of their money abroad. People earning (for example) 80K up may not always consider themselves "rich", but they can afford to pay a slightly higher rate on some of their earnings than those earning 35K. I don't think I'm a loony communist for thinking that!

If I remember that programme it was bit more complicated than you are making out in your post: Living standards did fall during the recession due to decreased spending power (wages stagnated whilst prices did not?). I am not saying that the last Conservative government didn't manage the economy well: I think that austerity went too far, but in the past the Conservatives at least prioritised business. This government is not. A falling pound will cause an even greater drop in the spending power of consumers - hence a future drop in living standards. Putting ideology ahead of trade relationships will be bad news for jobs and for the British economy.

caroldecker · 27/04/2017 00:47

I have quoted directly from the programme. I have no issues with the poorer members of society being protected, but do have a problem with lies about it.
A falling pound will cause an even greater drop in the spending power of consumers
Possibly, but a falling pound has saved Tata steel works.
In 2015, the UK exported $55bn to the US. Worth £36bn, now worth £43bn - £7bn additional profit for UK firms.
Lower FX rates help a country, or why do you think China manipulates its fx rate down? Why do 'currency wars' exist? Why was the Euro falling rate in reaction to ECB quantitative easing seen as a good thing? Why did most economists think GBP was overvalued prior to brexit.

frumpet · 27/04/2017 06:48

Chillie

Despite the illegal state aid to Duferco the company has now withdrawn almost all business activities from Belgium. The case shows that state aid to artificially keep steel manufacturers afloat that are not viable seriously distorts competition and only delays their exit from the market at the cost of taxpayers."

frumpet · 27/04/2017 06:49

And also

In view of overcapacity problems in the EU's steel industry, EU State aid rules only allow fostering the long-term competitiveness and efficiency of steel manufacturing but not the support of manufacturers in financial difficulties