To wonder wtf is going on in Wales?

[brexitstolemyfuture]

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-labour-poll-wales-yogov-majority-seats-first-time-century-a7699776.html%3famp

Tories predicted to get a majority for the first time in a century. I thought this was fake news, but no it's real

because when TM was in Wales deciding to go to the polls up Snowdon, what she was really doing was releasing Fucking Idiot Gas over us.

it's the only explanation I can come up with, myself.

Scary; one would hope, yes. But every Eu politician, employer and citizen that I have heard is pretty clear. You don't get the benefits without the commitment.

dismissing people as stupid is one on the reasons that we are in this mess.

It looks like the people of wales aren't the only people that need to give their head a wobble.

The UK as a whole has paid into the EU because the economic benefits of trading with the single market have made that worthwhile. See the attached graph that shows how trade has contributed to our GDP since we joined the single market. Our economy will decline if we leave the single market and there will be an even smaller share of the pot for Wales.

Parts of Wales are classified amongst the poorest regions in Europe (including the Eastern European countries). It has been the EU which has put money into Wales. What has a Conservative government ever offered the people of Wales? What policies do they have that appeal now?

I'm expat welsh too, this is unprecendented but obviously it's because of Brexit. People are worried it will be reversed if labour gets in.

Elphame, interested to hear why.

Goodness, user. Why hark back over 70 years? Wasn't there a British Empire then too?!

It's 2017 now and things are different.

You really cannot extrapolate history to today.

China and India were in a famine as I remember growing up in the 60's. Look at them now.

Thing is, life has changed and the world is globalisation now, whether you like it or not.

I would be more worried about the huge polarity between the rich and the poor still getting worse in UK today. I live in EU and not perfect but we take care of our vulnerable citizens.

Loads of jobs in the North East especially for young people depend on EU funding and that money, whether it started off as ours or not, is not going to suddenly end up back in that area if it doesn't go via the EU first
Why not?

I would be more worried about the huge polarity between the rich and the poor still getting worse in UK today. I live in EU and not perfect but we take care of our vulnerable citizens.
Tell that to the Greek pensioners and the unemployed youth.

I do not take any credit (or blame!) for what follows. I have lifted this analysis from a political discussion forum.

The Wales poll is a 9.5% swing since the general election (the equivalent of the Conservatives having a 25% lead over Labour across the whole of the UK).

This makes the Welsh figures sound quite plausible, when you think about it: the GB-wide leads over Labour have been coming out in the low 20s, and those are inclusive of inner London and other surviving Labour core territories where the Tories are often very weak indeed.

Furthermore...

• Welsh Labour have been in power, with a chequered record, ever since 1999. They misplaced about a fifth of their entire vote in the last Assembly election. The signs of decline have been apparent for some time.

• Plaid Cymru, who are an eccentric cross between a Welsh language defence group and a quite left-wing Socialist Party, have not had the same sort of impact as the SNP, or anywhere remotely like it. With the odd exception - Leanne Wood's spectacular victory in the Rhondda last year, and one or two other Assembly near misses - they do not poll especially well outside of the language belt.

• More generally - the language belt aside - Welsh voting patterns are more like those of Yorkshire than of Scotland. Even though the Tories were eliminated in Wales in 1997, they never acquired the same toxic taint as in Scotland, and have been able to rebuild steadily since. Nor is there any significant independence movement in Wales. Nor did it vote to Remain in the EU.

• The headline changes from the last Welsh Barometer in January suggest both direct Lab to Con voter migration, and indirect movement: it seems likely that the greater part of the collapsing Ukip vote, which appears to be moving almost entirely to the Tories as elsewhere, is comprised of fed up ex-Labour supporters who, having broken their previous voting patterns, now find the final step to backing Mrs May somewhat easier than might otherwise have been the case.

dismissing people as stupid is one on the reasons that we are in this mess.

It looks like the people of wales aren't the only people that need to give their head a wobble

Totally agree - too much mudslinging and binary politics and cheap shitty soundbites like "Turkeys voting for Christmas" FFS.

wasonthelist - Because the Tories have a very long history of neglecting that region and that won't change because they know no one there votes for them. It's only by the funds getting fair distribution through the EU that any of that money was invested there for those jobs

Do I consider a Welsh landowner voting Tory stupid? No, I absolutely understand that it is normal to vote in self interest.

I can't extend that courtesy to someone who is on JSA, getting repeated sanctions, living in a council flat and relying on a food bank half of the time. Someone who has lost their DLA, or someone who is on housing benefit paying bedroom tax and who cannot access social housing.

It being a wider social issue won't feed my kids should ESA support group get cut like the WRAG group.

I really think people are seeing this as the EU referendum confirmation vote. They seem to think that if they voted out, they've got to vote Tory, even if that means voting for all sorts of bollocks policies they don't want or like. The Tories are marketing it that way; it's all about Brexit don't mention education, health, welfare, pensions....

Because she's Welsh and owns a property in Wales bet she doesn't fucking live there though!

Brexit is why they are voting tory they watched Brexit because of immigration and all our British jobs going to them there foreigners

Fucking idiots the lit of them

I'm expat working class Welsh I can hear them all ranting over their pints in the workies

*wanted not watched

Maybe, just maybe, people remember what an utter ballsup Labour made last time. Maybe they remember what a lying, criminal shyster Tony Blair was. And perhaps they realise that a vote for the lib dems is a wasted vote or even worse, will give those intent on undermining a democratic decision a second bite at the cherry.

This country will thrive outside of the EU because we have talented and capable people. About time people realised that and got onside rather than endlessly bleat about how stupid the majority were who had the temerity to disagree with the enlightened Europhiles amongst us.

And I say this as a Corbyn Supporter. Not that I'd vote for him, but he's the most principled political leader I've seen in a long time.

It's only one poll, and things are changing on a daily basis. I wouldn't put much store by it yet. In a month I might start panicking if it's a consistent pattern.

It may be seen as the "least worst" option

Deep breaths, user...224, you don't want to wear out the question mark key too quickly.

I'm always mildly interested by those who suggest 'leaving the EU after building up intricate legal and economic links and an economic structure based on our membership' is the same as 'never having been in the EU in the first place.'

I live in the South Wales valleys and people are looking for change from Labour. The Labour MPs have always seen these areas as safe seats so you barely hear anything from them until an election is upcoming, they are not proactive at all, no job creation, EU funding mainly going on stuff which is pretty but pointless (we have a big dragon statue in the town centre, a fancy clock which is hardly ever showing the right time and a hugely expensive funicular railway which is always out of order - all EU funded).
Things are definitely changing - the council ask what the electorate want, the electorate tell them and then they ignore the people they are meant to serve.
I really enjoy the debates on our local politics Facebook page, but the Labour die-hards insist that it's just a Labour-bashing group and flounce off!

I am Welsh and I live in Wales. I won't be voting Tory. I don't have much faith in Corbyn though, the Labour party seems a mess. So what to do?

Those of you slinging insults at Welsh voters planning to vote Tory, has it ever occurred to you that the more people feel that many on the political centre/left/whatever you want to call it, despise people like them (which is what you are demonstrating), the more they will turn away from these parties and look elsewhere?

Because the Tories don't despise them at all...

Things are really bad in Wales and getting worse.

Educational outcomes in Wales at the moment are absolutely dire.
For example, results from tests taken by 15-olds across Wales for the OECD survey of standards show Wales is adrift of the global and UK average in reading, maths and science..