Breaking : possible terror attack in Berlin

[MagicMary1]

twitter.com/ap/status/810931083944534016

This is so sad.

Yeah Cote, the ones we know of who did it clearly just did it for the lolz. All the experts saying they would do this and the reasons why are clearly wrong because some woman on the interwebz once flew from Turkey to a Greek Island and now thinks she's an expert on terror plans despite the fact she clearly rarely even bothers to read the papers.

I don't know when you made those flights, but I think you'll find a lot has changed, not least because the EU has given Turkey a lot of money to beef up security (also extremely widely reported).

Germany have elections coming up soon so actions will absolutely be taken to show the people that their concerns are being listened too

And not before time. I have friends in Germany who feel their concerns have been ingnored and things have changed in a very short space of time

I think what angers many people is the idea that rufugees and migrant workers will all be thankful towards the country that offers them protection and a better life with opportunities that isn't always the way some people don't feel thankful they feel entitled not all rufugees are nice honest people who want to integrate and are intolerant to western views but you can not only accept people that do

And before it's pointed out yes I know moat are good honest people but it's still different cultures and intergranting with sudden such high numbers proving the o be far more difficult that the German government expected

I think that this statement ( from the one that you quoted regarding crime statistics) demonstrates that refugees are thankful and behave apporpritately and have a fine time integrating.

"Absolute numbers of crimes committed by Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis - the three biggest groups of asylum seekers in Germany - were high but given the proportion of migrants that they account for, their involvement in crimes was "clearly disproportionately low"

But they are high

But not as high as other immigrants

Most people would expect them to be very low (or non at all though this is rather naive) given that Germany has been so generous to them and their families

Its only high if you read it as the number 69,000, but then as you don't have the number of crimes committed or attempted to be committed you can't state that it is. Which is why its misleading.

For example the overall figure of crimes in Germany that I can find is 5.1 million for 2010.

Lets say it stays the same as that so using the 69,000 ( and remember this includes attempted), migrants ( not just refugees) made up 5% of all crime in Germany in 2016.

However you do need to note this part of the article too "The number of crimes committed by migrants declined by more than 18 percent between January and March, however, according to the report."

So its unlikely that the 69,000 crimes/attempted crimes figure would remain that high throughout the rest of the year, lowering the number.

It is also important to remember the point that this is all migrants, and the report refers to North Africa, Georgia and Serbia as well as the refugees from Syria etc.

That still does not take away the issue that many people have is that refugees have been treated very kindly by Germany and these numbers are far too high (the 69,000 is the first quarter of 2016)

But it isn't refugees! Its all migrants.

As they stated: "Absolute numbers of crimes committed by Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis - the three biggest groups of asylum seekers in Germany - were high but given the proportion of migrants that they account for, their involvement in crimes was "clearly disproportionately low"

They have been treated kindly, but in any group of people there are always going to be some that take advantage. It doesn't mean the entire policy was incorrect, and also doesn't justify the way people have talked on here.

And many are refugees

I think you will find that many people do think Merkel's open door policy has been wrong it has been poorly managed in some areas

Merkel herself has admitted mistakes were made many people in Germany feel the authorities haven't got control over the situation and that adds the the already complex and very real threat of terrorism

No, the report said: "given the proportion of migrants that they account for, their involvement in crimes was "clearly disproportionately low".

Yes I can read

and have read the Reuters article

So why keep stating the counter factual stuff then?

Darth, you can't extrapolate anything about refugees in general from those numbers because it breaks it down only by nationality rather than immigration status and also

IIRC correctly offending rates amongst Syrians are extremely low. But Georgians, Africans, Serbians etc may well also be asylum seekers and their rates are disproportionately high. And this also highlights one of the problems with Merkel's policy. She failed to find a coherent way of effectively and quickly separating North African chancers and Serbian organised criminals from genuine Syrian asylum seekers despite her 'come one, come all' message.

but saying it "may also be" without knowing immigration status or nationality means nothing either. We also don't know the total number of committed crimes, or the numbers from the year before so nothing can be read from the basic numbers that we have.

Essentially the massive issue others have generated about this issue is a non starter, it was used in an attempt to prove a point, and cannot be used so. However the attempt to say that x amount of crimes are committed by migrants shows that integration is poor by one specific group is shown to be fundamentally incorrect and prejudiced.

darth I am not sure what my counter factual stuff is exactly

"And many are refugees"

The data doesn't tell us that does it, the data is just based on nationality. It doesn't even give us any info on how this figure relates to the total number of crimes committed. It does tell us that the number of Iraqi, Afghan and Syrians in these numbers is disproportionally low to their % of migrants.

The terminology used was asylum seekers

It states the crimes committed were high

Disproportionately low compared to migrants

But the number of crimes is still high - just low in comparison

The terminology used was migrants, when counting the number of crimes, not refugees.

It doesn't state the crimes committed were high it gives a number but: "t gave no breakdown of the number of actual crimes and of would-be crimes, nor did it state what percentage the 69,000 figure represented with respect to the total number of crimes and would-be crimes committed in the first three months of 2016."

So any speculation that this is high is merely taking the nominal figure without any reference.

The number of crimes committed by the groups I mentioned above were disproportionately low given the proportion of migrants that are represented by these groups.

So yeah stating: "Many are by refugees" and then using that "fact" to try to give backing to your point. So yeah, counterfactual to do so using this data.

Asylum seekers was also not the term used here in the data, it was used to explain that the groups I mention are the three biggest groups.

From the report

^Absolute numbers of crimes committed by Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis - the three biggest groups of asylum seekers in Germany - were high but given the proportion of migrants that they account for, their involvement in crimes was "clearly disproportionately low", the report said.

It gave no breakdown of the number of actual crimes and of would-be crimes, nor did it state what percentage the 69,000 figure represented with respect to the total number of crimes and would-be crimes committed in the first three months of 2016.^

It states crimes committed by the largest groups of asylum seekers is high

Low in comparison but it is still high numbers of crimes being committed

That is what the article is about

So many of the crimes (not the most or the highest percentage) have been carried out by that particular group

My response about the 69000 in a quarter does was to point out the figure was not for a whole year but I am aware that was a figure for migrants and as/refugees but and should have made that clearer as I did in other posts

People simply do not want to hear about refugees committing crimes and when it's a stated in such a way it doesn't support

People don't want to hear about it being talked of critically either.

The absolute number point means that yes 69,000 is a large number, because it is a far distance from 0.

What this doesn't mean that the number of crimes committed by refugees was high, in proportion to all of the other crimes. It just means its a big number. As they've also stated in terms of these 3 groups % of the migrant population, the number of crimes committed was disproportionally low. Which means that actually they commit fewer crimes than one would expect for a population of that size.

You are hanging this on the use of the word "high" and attempting to distort it for your own ends. Mendacious, glib and lacking in intellectual rigour.

Oh of course Darth

If only I was as intellectual as yourself

The use of the word high is in what we both c&p from Reuters

Do you yourself work in helping refugees?

Sorry, but it is that use of the term absolute number for me that this hangs on. They are saying that this 69,000 figure sounds high, but actually its not.

Its not about not wanting to hear about crimes committed by refugees, its about correctly interpreting what was said, with the data available and not being salacious about what this actually means. If you look at much of the reporting regarding this its totally over blown and being used to critique Merkel and also create fear around refugees/muslims etc.

Look at the 2014-2015 data, the number of crimes by immigrants rose in comparison over 2014 to 2015 by 79 percent, the number of refugees increased at the same time by 440 percent. So its totally disproportionate, its also the case that of the 208,344 crimes committed throughout the year by migrants most offences are minor. There were 28,712 (13%) cases of riding on public transport without paying the fare, 52,167 (25%) incidents of forging paperwork in a bid to get money, 85,035 ( 40%) cases of theft, moslty shoplifting.

Essentially using these numbers to paint a picture of a crime wave against German people is inaccurate, to attempt to use them as a way of describing that muslims fail to integrate is utterly dishonest.

Anyway, I'm data done now.

No doubt I'll be accused of making excuses or diminishing things, and yes predatory extortion" and "offences against person freedom," including threatening behaviour, accounts for 18 percent of the crime total.

I'm not excusing or diminishing, what I'm saying is using this data to prove some of the things that people are trying to prove or to justify some opinions is politically expedient. Its just using numbers that sound high in order to put forward an opinion without actually drilling down and looking at the data.

Darth, the problem is that you are assuming that because the numbers in those three groups are low the numbers for asylum seekers overall are low because the other numbers are 'migrants'. In fact, we don't know that the other crimes aren't committed by asylum seekers as they are also migrants and that report doesn't actually make a differentiation between crimes committed by asylum seekers and other migrants as you suggest. It just makes a differentiation between those three nationalities and the rest of the world. And given the huge influx and the spike in crime rates it's extremely likely that it is because of some people who have come in the asylum influx.

This brings up two points for me. Firstly, is the disservice that Merkel's refugee policy is doing to genuine refugees. According to those figures people who come from countries where there is genuine distress and unrest are unlikely to be offenders. But Merkel has made little differentiation between people coming from North Africa, Georgia, Serbia etc (who often have weak asylum cases and are more likely to offend) and people coming from the 3 countries. Put simply, Merkel has failed to put into place simple and sensible tests that could differentiate desperate Syrians from violent Serbian nationalists. Because she's more interested in cheap labour than saving people. She doesn't want to make the fairly easy divisions between desperate Syrians and bomby Tunisian extremists.

The second is the gravity of the crimes. I think we all know that if you go to the costas or the Greek Islands the offenders that you are likely to come across may we'll be British. But it will probably be petty crimes like fighting. But if you started hearing about Brits driving trucks into our hosts or machine gunning them in theatres or beheading members of religious orders I hope there might be more of an outcry. And the fact that those crimes are designed to destabilise our society. It's not really a numbers game. It's a damage game.

I would feel a lot happier if we had Syrian, Afghani and Iraqi border guards who could say 'Let him in, let him in, no, you're a Serbian gangster fuck off' than I would with the free for all.

But then, it's all about cheap labour and the left wing who should be opposing it are so dumb and brainwashed they'll go for anything.

I didn't suggest it did make a difference between the asylum seekers and in fact I have stressed this repeatedly, we don't know about the immigration status of this group.

What we do know is 69,000 crimes were committed in the first 3 months of 2016 by people who would be classified as migrants.

We don't know that the crime rates have "spiked", what we do know is that the percentage of crimes comitted by migrants increased by 78% in 2015, however we don't know what % of crime this is over all. If we take 2010 over all crime figure (the one I can find) which is 5.1 million crimes then migrants would be responsible for 4.1% of all crime in Germany.

We also know that the vast majority of these crimes are minor, if we say that the data would be broadly similar to the type of crimes committed in 2015 then between 75 and 80% of these crimes are minor.

We have a problem in that an extremely tiny minority have taken advantage of this to commit atrocities which are quite rightly to be condemmed, however it is a post hoc fallacy to assume that the borders policy caused this attack, or would have kept people safe.

I think the humanitarian reasons for allowing refugees in were far more great than any reason of cheap labour, portraying it as a cynical and explotatitive attempt to gain this is actually something I've only seen done by BrietBart and other similar publications.

I'm certainly not thick nor brain washed, although of course I am a leftie ( but of course using that as a criticisim is an ad hominem which further undermines your argument) but I think I've demonstrated clearly that what people have been attempting to use this data for is incorrect.