To continue to wonder who is happy with where Brexit is heading

[Bearbehind]

Whilst I'm sure Leavers will undoubtedly think AIBU the last thread filled up so here's another 1000 opportunities to discuss what you think about where Brexit is heading.

WW it's hard to see who you're replying to, but if the "no it isn't" comment relates the impact of the NLW on pay increases for the lowest paid:

From Laura Gardiner at the Resolution Foundation:

While the future looks less than encouraging, there’s plenty more to be positive about in 2016’s pay performance. Most prominently, it was a good year for low earners, with pay at the 10th percentile growing more than twice as fast as at the median. This was largely due to the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) – a higher minimum wage for those aged 25 and over and a 50p increase on the previous rate – on 1 April 2016.

it is also happening in the us.

From Bloomberg:

...Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists Emanuella Enenajor and Lisa Berlin, commenting on the biggest source of upward pressure on U.S. wages in 2016. The duo found that industries which rank in the bottom 20 percent by pay are seeing incomes rise at a much faster clip than higher-paying sectors.

A back-of-the envelope analysis conducted by Enenajor and Berlin suggests that minimum wage increases in U.S. states this year account for roughly half of the outperformance in wage growth at the lower end.

The other half of the story? The supply of labor for these lower-paying jobs, which typically don't require higher education degrees, has been declining, so employers are being forced to pay higher wages to retain workers.

Informal I accept your point about the US

There's a massive gulf between having an understanding and knowing what is happening
Quite.

But apparently it's okay for surfer - I'm fairly rich, I live in a smart part of London, my ds is privately educated - to "have an understanding", whilst deriding journalists (who may or may not have Tuscan villas) for expressing opinions. The latter, apparently, write "sanctimonius crap", while surfer has "an understanding" of the issues of poorer people. Glad we've got that sorted.

Also just read your previous post: Will post more links later but I don't understand why the partial source of the , wage rise renders it as irrelevant when discussing how to help poor communities cope. Isn't this the sort of govern mm ent, legislation led, intervention that's needed? Isn't it better that it's an intervention, at least partly, as that underpins its security?

I'm not sure what the bad part is about it being an intervention. Why is that bad - can you explain.

Gideon did you not object to the 'inane twaddle hysterical racist bigot fucking ivory towers' thing

Must remember those hen it comes to my next unpleasant posts so I don't get called out

WW Is that to me? I made no comment as to whether is was a good or bad intervention.

Whilst the NLW is a step in the right direction, it is also reported by the Resolution Foundation that it will lead to a higher proportion of people being paid the legal minimum - from 1 in 50 in 1999 to 1 in 7 by 2020.

And the effect on businesses needs to be taken into account as well - some are cutting jobs, reducing hours, cutting job benefits and slowing recruitment as their business costs increase.

winchester not sure what you mean by 'inane twaddle hysterical racist bigot fucking ivory towers

Have done a search of the whole thread and the only time that phrase crops up is in your own post. Were you suggesting someone had used that phrase to describe you or surfer? Otherwise, I have no idea what you're trying to say.

Supply and demand doesn't solve the problem ww how will demand reduce if no immigrants currently here have to leave?

I think it's an interesting window into the differences between how remainers and leavers see things that the issue of whether EU nationals who are living in the UK will have to leave is almost only ever brought up by remain voters. All the polls show that almost no-one wants this, and that the difference between leave and remain voters on this is tiny.

I think many leave voters want the country to be able to control immigration in the future and I think some remain voters find this hard to grasp, which I find hard to understand.

The studies into effects of immigration on wages have not shown no effect, they have shown a small effect. If the country has no control over immigration levels from the EU, then it will not be able to take any action if these effects start to increase, which given the huge uncertainties both in the EU and elsewhere, is not a completely impossible scenario.

I think very, very few leave voters want or expect any EU nationals to leave the country. I think people want to ensure that the country can respond in the future to ensure the problems with supply and demand don't have a detrimental effect on those with the lowest income in the future.

They aren't my words.

Informal: that's ok if you don't think it's bad. You seemed to be implying it didn't count because it's legislated.

Informal: I read more of your post. That seems to depend on whether the supply of labour remains unlimited.

ww so far we seem to have established you have a long term vision that immigration will reduce but you can't actually explain how people will cope with the cost of living that will affect us before the year is out.

You'll clearly be find but where do you think poorer people will find the extra money from?

On top of that you haven't even begun to discuss how the negative impact on trade due to ending FOM can be resolved.

Having immigration control as your ultimate goal has huge repercussions, how can we make up for loss of or restricted access to the single market?

But I have done. Repeatedly. What is the point of me posting anything if you ignore it?

You haven't posted answers to the questions I've just asked ww

Answering the question you want to isn't the same thing.

How do you think the poorest in society will get through the next few months/ years whilst prices are rising but nothing else around them is changing at the same pace?

How do you think will the UK fare without access to the Single market if that's the price we pay to end FOM?

What will happen if we loose financial passporting?

What can we do to increase exports? What have we got that any one else wants and will still be competitive?

WW Informal: that's ok if you don't think it's bad. You seemed to be implying it didn't count because it's legislated.

I didn't say it didn't count - it was to point out that it was entirely unrelated the economy post referendum. You were using it as an example of how the poor will cope with price rises. Forecasts now show that the NLR will note rise to the same extent as previously predicted, so its effect will become more muted over time. And given that the NLR results in higher costs for businesses, businesses will either cut labour costs or raise prices.

I'm not saying it's to do with the post brexit economy. Bear keeps asking me about inflation and low income families in the short term. It's a response to that. Perhaps that wasn't obvious to you.

No bear I haven't and I won't until you acknowledge the responses I already made.

ww, as informal has pointed out, increases in wages have been boosted this year, that has already fed into the stats.

It's not sustained growth and therefore won't offset inflation due to the fall in sterling which has yet to feed into the system fully but is just about to.

If you were speaking to someone in Frank Fields constituency today how would you reassure them that these costs are worth it in the long term when they're living hand to mouth now?

No bear I haven't and I won't until you acknowledge the responses I already made.

Discussions don't work like that ww

You expect me to acknowledge your responses when you concede you haven't actually answered my questions.

I have said that a fall in house prices and rents, even if they happen, aren't going to happen before inflation hits so they are not an answer to my question.

Neither is wage growth as per my last post.

What exactly do you want me to acknowledge?

Winchester They aren't my words

So you were just shit-stirring? Nice.

WrongTrouser I think very, very few leave voters want or expect any EU nationals to leave the country
How can you say that with a straight face, given the rhetoric at Tory conference (EU doctors can stay 'for the time being'), EU migrants reporting hate crime/being told they are not welcome? Remember the 'fuck off to Poland' letters in Tunbridge Wells of all places? I believe a number of leave voters would very much like EU migrants to leave.

Regarding the Frank Field comments and the belief he's more in touch with his constituents than other people got me thinking. Without a doubt no one would ever say Birkenhead wasn't an extremely deprived area, and that The Wirral tends to be a highly affluent area so it would make sense that The Wirral overall voted to remain. And it makes sense that Birkenhead voted to leave. Except, as a very deprived area who's MP has championed leaving the EU as the answer to their problems I was very surprised to find they only voted just over 51%, so it would appear that just under half of Birkenhead still aren't being listened to.

I'm wondering now about how much the deprived areas argument holds up. This is where the high swings should be. But some of the highest percentage voting leave areas are not economically deprived (I have resided and worked in a few of them).

May have a quick data mine later if my poorly tummy allows me.

No they were bears words. As bear knows.

Wages have been ahead of earnings for months and low incomes have added value there as you acknowledge. Firstly, there is a wage / inflation cushion because of that. Secondly, the last inflation figures were not as bad as expected and this was partly because despite starlings slide, it was food prices actually falling that tempered the rise to one per cent. Thirdly your rocketing inflation forecast comes partly from carney, if not more than partly, and he's been consistently proved wrong. Fourthly, benefits may come sooner: brexit was no bar to new Nissan jobs. Fifthly, as I said in an earlier post but will repeat, government intervention such as central grants to local authorities and housing associations to allow local rent/ council tax/ childcare support.

That should say: wage rises have been ahead of inflation for months.

And stop saying I haven't answered questions! I've answered loads and you just carry on as if I haven't ! Which is not how conversations work at all!

I can't speak for all leave voters : I speak for me. If people stay: fine. If people go: fine. So long as we have control and can plan.

Bear why is uk property a prime investment if the country is going down the plug hole? Why did we not plunge into immediate recession? Why does no one consider a halving of interest rates to have any role on the sterling dip?