To continue to wonder who is happy with where Brexit is heading

[Bearbehind]

Whilst I'm sure Leavers will undoubtedly think AIBU the last thread filled up so here's another 1000 opportunities to discuss what you think about where Brexit is heading.

So why are people saying the banks are going to leave? I would understand if we were part of the euro but what exactly will change given that we're not?

The problem is the answer your second question is "nobody knows". And the longer nobody knows, the more chance there is that banks - who amazingly enough still have some cautious nature - will choose to go where there is more certainty. It's the same process you would personally use if you were looking to move. Would you choose to buy an already built house or sign up to an artists impression of what a house could look like ? Especially if the artists impression can't be backed up in law ?

You could also reverse that and say, whilst yes in the very short term banks may be better off over there, however, longer term I'm not so convinced. That's a lot of money and upheaval for what could be out of the frying pan and into the fire. As Lurking says banks are cautious by nature and at the end of the day nobody knows. It's too early to anticipate what is going to happen with the financial/banking sector.

But it isn't all of the banks going, just the departments that deal mostly with the EU. Office space is not that expensive as a cost, and further it means that they can operate with the London back offices and other departments.

No one has mentioned that you must be within the EU to be able to operate as a Euro clearing center, London is the biggest in the world. That will definitely go, and some banks services with it.

Autumnintheair I don't understand exactly what you're saying with the first bit of my post you quoted about my Dad and a few friend's parents.

Re your other post with the Health club analogy and the EU I see what you are saying but that doesn't take into account that the EU has become a handy scapegoat for successive governments and a lot of what people are complaining about being down to the EU actually isn't.

I'm leaving this now. I have decided at the moment emotions are running much too high for any bridges to be built between leave and remain and until we're all further down the line there isn't any point in even trying. If the rift becomes bigger and is never mended then so be it.

In answer to the original question, no I'm not happy with Brexit, neither is DH or my DC.

<a class="break-all" href="//;www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37786467" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">;www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37786467
So, the economy seems to be enjoying brexit

It's still lower than forecast without.

Nice try though. Oh and we haven't left!

Wendy the economy is still growing, which is good news. However, growth is down from the previous quarter. Also, the figures are boosted by strong growth from the services sector (0.8%), which would be badly affected if there were no access to the single market. The manufacturing and construction industries are struggling and posted little to no growth. Just as in 2007-8, we need to keep an eye on the whole picture and look at results over a cumulative period.

Lower than forecast already low growth isn't good . Could be worse, but isn't good.

That growth will be wiped out by the fall in the pound.

But it's not exactly the 'suicidal jump off a cliff' that we have apparently committed. Maybe it's just because the leavers have been enjoying themselves, while the 48% sit in darkened rooms shaking with terror and disowning family members for voting 'wrong,'.

Nice to see that Eurozone growth was a stonking 0.3% in the latest quarter.

The average annual growth in the Eurozone since the Euro's inception is about 1.7% per annum. Quite a pitiful dividend given the bountiful benefits of being in the EC.

Bit beside the point though, Larry. We've never been in the Eurozone.

Their 0.3 % is significantly larger in nominal terms than our 0.5 .

Grace,

The Eurozone is Europe, now! We might not be in it but we are inextricably tied to it. In addition, if being a member of the EC is said to confer a huge economic benefit (as soi disant experts keep telling us), we should be seeing it.

"Wasn't happy IN the EU as constantly felt we were being pushed into situations over which we had no control and no vote"

Like what?

Also to work out on average the UKs growth over that time is about the same or lower.

Small,

Firstly, I am dubious about your last statement. Can you evidence it please? I don't have a Bloomberg professional terminal any more, so if you do, maybe you could copy the numbers in. However, I will do my best to check it from easily available figures.

Secondly, that kind of misses the point. We have been tied to the Eurozone for all of that period so clearly our economy has moved very much in synch with the European one. What is the point is why has this economically dynamic, well managed trading area not outperformed the rest of the World rather than lagged it? Surely it should have managed 2-3% growth in this golden era?

Finally, you do post prolifically on these threads, at all hours of the day and night. In the interest of transparency, are you incentivised to do so (either financially or otherwise)? I think it would be fair to let everyone know. Is it a part of your job?

But the Eurozone hasn't been performing that well over the past few years. Our economy has managed to grow, notwithstanding this. We have had the economic benefits of EU membership without the pitfalls of being part of the Eurozone.

That being said, as Small has pointed out, our economic growth over the time period you mention has been roughly equivalent to the Eurozone - there have been times where their economy has performed better than ours.

Sorry Larry, don't have numbers to hand... oh and mobile phones are wonderful things matey.

Nissan are staying, so that's good news.

Small,

Sure they are...in the middle of the working day!

I think we will have to treat your 'not to hand' numbers with a healthy degree of scepticism.

Did you not know I'm semi retired Larry?

www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2016/10/were-beginning-see-what-brexit-might-look

So as ever with any story proposing the “success” of Brexit, the question comes back to how you define success. If success means sluggish growth, and increasing the amount that the state has to pay to large multinational companies to persuade them to stay while still handing over cash to Brussels, there is growing evidence that Brexit may be a success. If success means equalling or exceeding the growth of the United Kingdom within the European Union, while freeing up a cash bounty for public services, the prognosis is less good.

Here you go small and larry
Very quick google search on UK GDP growth gave me this page:
guardian
Which links to the ONS data. Since Q1 1999 the average QonQ UK GDP growth is 0.45%, YonY is 1.8%

bored watching Pokemon would rather play with spreadsheets

Validated...again.