To be worried that the Brexiteers might be wrong and an economic disaster is waiting if we leave?

[Girlwithnotattoos]

What if we wake up on Friday out of the EU, probably nothing immediately other than some soul searching by the remainders. But what about in the months to come? What if all the economists and world leaders were right? We could be heading down the swanny big time, companies moving to the EU proper, jobs going left right and centre, deficit increasing because of lost revenues (taxes, vat etc).

I've listened to the fervent Brexiteers who have dismissed everything put to them as propaganda and yet they still haven't come up with a plan to counter the 'what if' scenarios. Am I the only one to be worried that nobody has a plan B if the economy does slow down to tune of 1.4%to 6% as predicted bearing in mind that a reduction of just 0.4% would counteract any saving to be made on what we contribute to the EU?

Sandra You say the UK has a zombie economy. We're still the FIFTH largest economy in the world (although ninth adjusted for PPP) and, according to the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, at least last October, we were expected to be the BEST performing economy in the western world over the next FIFTEEN years. Iceland is not even in the top ten, with or without adjustment for PPP.

So your argument on that score is spurious to say the least.

Why would we want to do anything to risk such a forecast?

Well 5th is debatable.

And this economy is on solid fundamentals?

Or is it based on selling houses at ever higher prices and inslaving the young to a lifetime of debt?

I think anyone assuming it will be the same if we stay will be mistaken too. Laws have been shelved until after the referendum and some of those look pretty scary.

Iceland is tiny. Its overall population is smaller than most larger Cities in Britain.

My big worry about a Brexit is that we are then stuck with the Tories, and the Tories at their worst. They have actually done their best for middle to high earners during their time in power, so it's not going to get any better for them after a Brexit, but it will get worse for low earners (like me) and the unemployed.

The Tories will heavily prioritize the financial sector and business after Brexit. Tax avoiders/evaders will get to keep dodging because we need to make the UK attractive to them, and they'll wring the last few drops from people on benefits. Osborne will also then be able to finally get rid of working tax credits telling us that it's all our own fault for voting out and wrecking the economy.

That's my fear. If anyone can put my mind at rest and explain how I'm being stupid, please do. I'll be happy to hear it!

Sandra Debatable by who? Can you find me some economists who disagree with the International Monetary Fund then? Or are you an economist yourself?

Personally I think if we leave there will a vote of no confidence in the current leadership of the tories. If we stay dodgy Dave will stay in power.

Leaving would mean that Britain would have to negotiate our own trade deals. Have we even got enough people who are up to doing this?

Racist is a joke. Exeters are usually the least racist as they want to open the country to skilled people from across the world.

Most disingenuous comment I've heard since this sorry debate started.

sandrabedminster Wed 22-Jun-16 13:33:49
Iceland's economy tanked, it has now fully recovered and is one of the strongest.
THAT IS UTTER UTTER UTTER BOLLOCKS.

Would you like my full The Truth About Iceland Rant?

Or should I just keep it to the abbreviated version?

Who fancies a mortgage that keeps going up in value despite the fact you've paid it off at the agreed rate?

They are FUCKED there still. Utterly fucked.
Unless you were one of the government cronies who are still in power who hide money in Panama. Then you are ok.

I would think there would be a run on the pound and paralysis in many areas of business because people won't want to make decisions immediately.

I don't think its the case that we don't have people with the calibre but I do think its likely that those who will be put in charge by the leavers will not have the calibre

Don't worry Red, Sandra will be along in a minute with the name of an economist who disagrees with the IMF and will back up her facts about Iceland....

Oh please the IMF is made up of pro Europe people.

And most economists agree on nothing, including brexit. As someone linked to yesterday and you gleefuly ignored.

Iceland's entire population is only 350,000 people. What Iceland is doing or is not doing is irrelevant. It is not comparable.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/three-charts-that-show-icelands-economy-recovered-after-it-imprisoned-bankers-and-let-banks-go-bust-10309503.html

What lies? A few mortgage holders worse off doesn't mean the economy isn't doing well

No, Sandra, you said my point, and that of the IMF was debatable. I asked you to provide an economist who disagrees with them and agrees with you. You are doing the usual Brexiter nonsense - you state what you perceive to be the case and when challenged with an actual fact and asked to counter it, are unable to produce a fact to back your statement. Stating (accurately or otherwise) that the IMF is made up of pro-Europe people is irrelevant as their previous forecasts of a similar nature about our economy were made prior to the referendum being called.

Thank you, however, for your article about Iceland. It does not back your point about them.

Sandra Let's clarify. You said that Iceland's economy has fully recovered and is now one of the strongest.

That article you presumably supplied as evidence shows the countries debts are more manageable and that is has got itself into a better position since the 2008 debacle. That is not the same thing at all as "fully recovered" and "one of the strongest economies in the world".

It is a statement of fact that because Iceland is a small country with a small economy, its economy has always been volatile.

PS Hekla the volcano looks likely to explode soon and could well cause another massive air traffic issue and has the power to potentially cause a major disaster on Iceland. If so, their economy will go splat again for a while.

I said the 5th largest economy is debatable actually.

Plenty of other places differ on it if you want to pull your head out of the sand and listen to a rational argument.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36267698

Oh, and by GDP, the UK is the fifth ranked economy. Iceland is 111th. So, very comparable and one of the world's strongest. Not.

That's very daily mail ESC reporting. Obviously its meanless unless you do it per head. But never mind you manipulate stats to your viewpoint.

No country is directly comparable to the uk so neither side know what will happen. Its all guess work.

Again, that article refutes Gordon Brown's claim about our economy for 2050. I referred to the next 15 years, as per the IMF. That article clearly states the views that by 2050 the UK economy will be either:

the biggest economy in Europe by 2050, beginning in the 2030s
ninth in the world (with France and Germany the only Euro countries ahead or just Germany on its own) - by two sources
eleventh in the world (being one other Euro country, Germany)

That all sounds pretty positive to me.

You're not proving your points here.

That article was to say no one agrees or really knows.

Cause they don't. Guesswork from both sides.

Its the remainers here that are certain what would happen in a brexit.

From a very respected independent journalist, who got pissed off at the rest of the world's blinkered view of what was happening in her home country. She has been published in many international broadsheets across the world and is held in very high regard:

aldasigmunds.com/the-icelandic-prime-minister-and-his-wifes-offshore-activities/
Corruption. And political ridiculousness on an epic scale (and you think our lot are bad!)

aldasigmunds.com/on-the-exodus-from-iceland/
Oh so familiar problems. But without the EU.

icelandweatherreport.com/with-impunity/
icelandweatherreport.com/the-list-goes-on/
A fairly good summary of some of the things that have gone on since the meltdown.

icelandweatherreport.com/iceland-six-years-after-the-meltdown/
Mortgages that go UP not down.

There are hardly cash machines anywhere as they don't want you to take money out. The Icelandic currency is worthless - so worthless this is why they dropped their application to the EU as it was recognised they would not be able to achieve the economic goals for decades and it wasn't worth the money, time or effort to try now. Instead they have had to exploit their tourism industry to the point where it is now causing problems and damaging both their environment and society. Their public health service got totally destroyed with what's left being nothing short of a national disgrace and falling to bits.

And their human rights record and employment laws are a lot worse than you would think. Scarily so. Indeed they have been told they have a lot of catching up to do recently.

Its a wonderful country, but the utopic reporting by the outside world has been a world away from the reality of people who actually live there. It suits the political agenda of the rest of the world to hold up Iceland as some sort of miracle.

Its bollocks. Its a real shame. And not something I would want to follow in the footsteps of.

Iceland is also a very difficult country to emigrate to.

No ones saying Iceland is a utopia. But they have done lots of things right IMO in terms of finance. The uk is still treading water and will have to blow up eventually.

As for mortgages they are a gamble when you take them out. Houses prices go down as well as up, as do interest rates and many other things. Its a risk taking on such huge debt and should be seen as that. Many in the uk thinloading yourself up with mega debt to buy a house is like buying a winning lottery ticket.