To be worried that the Brexiteers might be wrong and an economic disaster is waiting if we leave?

[Girlwithnotattoos]

What if we wake up on Friday out of the EU, probably nothing immediately other than some soul searching by the remainders. But what about in the months to come? What if all the economists and world leaders were right? We could be heading down the swanny big time, companies moving to the EU proper, jobs going left right and centre, deficit increasing because of lost revenues (taxes, vat etc).

I've listened to the fervent Brexiteers who have dismissed everything put to them as propaganda and yet they still haven't come up with a plan to counter the 'what if' scenarios. Am I the only one to be worried that nobody has a plan B if the economy does slow down to tune of 1.4%to 6% as predicted bearing in mind that a reduction of just 0.4% would counteract any saving to be made on what we contribute to the EU?

Well, yes, quite. We could still decide to leave the EU in 10-20 years time if we find that we have been deceived by the Remain camp.

If we find that we have been deceived by the Leave camp, on the other hand, we might still be able to re-join the EU but it would be on their terms, not ours. The Euro? Schengen? Ever closer union?

The country has gone to the dogs in, perhaps we should try out!

That's rubbish. Economic growth in this country since 1973 (when we joined the then EEC) has outperformed that of both Germany and the U.S., and has far out stripped that of France. Being in the EU has been very good economically for Britain. See www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/Brexit

I'm worried if we stay in where the EU will be in 5 years time, with Greece still not sorted and the more bail outs looming. A couple of banks in Italy are going under iirc, and yet the EU sails blithely on.

No ones predicting a recession if we stay, are they?

We'very had them before.

Well, yes, quite. We could still decide to leave the EU in 10-20 years time if we find that we have been deceived by the Remain camp.

Except they aren't saying that though are they? Once in a generation opportunity is the line we're being fed isn't it?

I asked this question on this morning's four experts mumsnet guest thread - (asked was I too gloomy to assume there would be a housing market crash, job losses & a recession). The economist gave a very clear answer (no not too gloomy it seems).

scaryteacher That is so not an issue. It is already agreed that Britain doesn't have to contribute to Eurozone bail outs. And that we will get reimbursed if any general EU funds are used for bail outs.

My concern, I am still undecided, is that the decision to move either way in 10 or 20 years time will be bogged down with the fact that we've already had a referendum, to have one again will cost a lot and will again not be supported with credible information prior.

I think you are right OP as I said on another thread, we in Ireland took this course a long time ago and while I am glad we are a republic there has been an extraordinary high cost both economically and socially associated with our want to go it alone. While the uk is a lot bigger it will certainly have hugely isolated itself from the rest of Europe, except Ireland, with this course of action. Not unlike the Irish situation I think if there is a Brexit it will be a decision of the heart and not the head.

Except they aren't saying that though are they? Once in a generation opportunity is the line we're being fed isn't it?

That's what they said in Scotland, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was another Scottish referendum following a UK vote to leave the EU.

I think it would be reasonable to vote on the EU again if there were significant changes that we hadn't had an opportunity to vote on.

Leave you may make the MC have financial career issues. Remain the WC continue to have financial career issues.

What does WC and MC mean in this context, YourPerception? I don't understand your post.

Middle class working class.

Trouble is, Perception, there will be fewer people paying tax into the system, so both the MC and the WC will probably be worse off. The super rich will probably be ok either way.

I think that leaving may help lift the lowest salaries as there may be less competition for jobs if there are fewer EU migrants. However, if the economy contracts and jobs are being shed because companies are moving jobs to other EU countries and/or investments bypass the UK, then the Brexit benefits may be insignificant for the working poor.

Inflation is likely to rise and so are interest rates. The people most affected by an inflation increase will be the unemployed, the people on benefits and pensioners, whose benefits and pensions are unlikely to rise commensurately.

Who knows what will happen as you say the rich will win. We all vote for our own reasons.

Most of the companies in my industry are holding off on big and small decisions until the result is clear. Which means that as a freelancer I don't have enough projects lined up to meet my outgoings. A year ago I was having to turn work away.

^ this completely. I'm not freelance but I've been so quiet at work the last few weeks that I've started to worry, DH is the same.

It's not just the economy I'm worried about, I think the cultural identity of the country is going to nose dive.

Ah.

Well as a graduate working in a creative field I'd count as MC in that argument. And yes, leaving will definitely affect my earning is the short term, due to the uncertainty. And quite possibly in the long term. It depends on the trade agreements drawn up, as my field is so collaborative that any new barriers will mean companies closing their UK offices entirely.

But as a PP says, if the 15% of us in creative and tech industries are earning less or losing our jobs entirely and then paying less tax there will be less to go round everyone.

And that's without calculating the cost of leave on the City.

It's a worry, isn't it Sinister.

I also agree about the effect on our cultural identity. However the Brexit supporters I know vehemently disagree on that. (Though I don't know many. Since my friends are mostly academics, creatives or finance, and my family are all Armed Forces or farming. )

Was watching something on the TV about Paris earlier. Looks like they're worried about the boost that a Brexit vote could give to the far right in France, but at the same time, rubbing their hands together in glee at the prospect of all the jobs that might shift from London to Paris.

The IMF (and other leading economists) predicted armageddon if we left the European exchange rate mechanism, actualite was UK growth for several years.
In 1981, after Gefferoy Howe's budget, 364 economists wrote a letter to the Times saying "there was "no basis in economic theory or supporting evidence" for the policy that the Budget was seeking to implement, that it threatened Britain's "social and political stability", and that an alternative course must be pursued.
There followed 4 years of growth.
None of the people complaining about Brexit say the 2008 crash.

Caroldecker good points.

I didn't actually understand your point Carol. (Theme emerging: I need to get some sleep!) Was it that economists get stuff wrong all the time?! No shit!

I actually have very little regard for most economic modelling. Loads of it is crap. Don't even get me started on the efficient markets theory.

But I do believe that they're right, since it's so bloody obvio si to work out that even all the economists can do so, that the uncertainty, for quite a long period of time, inherent in having to negotiate all of our own trade agreements, rather than the current EU ones will be bad for lots of businesses, who will then take the lower risk approach and decamp to mainland Europe or Ireland. And then loads of us will lose our jobs.

Yanbu. I have a ball of worry in my stomach. Feel like the country is being carried along on a wave of anti-immigration and zenophobia towards economic and cultural damage, although probably not disaster

I'm in Asia, we had to leave the UK because my DH's role was moved. I have already voted by post. My main observation would be how little the EU actually matters on this side of the globe. There are so many French and Irish economic migrants where I am because they can't get jobs in the EU and they feel they have no future there. Not to mention the largest population in the world who have no say in who governs them. Less than ten people decide what is best for billions. Whichever way you vote, be thankful that you have a say and are allowed to express your opinion without living in fear.