To be worried that the Brexiteers might be wrong and an economic disaster is waiting if we leave?

[Girlwithnotattoos]

What if we wake up on Friday out of the EU, probably nothing immediately other than some soul searching by the remainders. But what about in the months to come? What if all the economists and world leaders were right? We could be heading down the swanny big time, companies moving to the EU proper, jobs going left right and centre, deficit increasing because of lost revenues (taxes, vat etc).

I've listened to the fervent Brexiteers who have dismissed everything put to them as propaganda and yet they still haven't come up with a plan to counter the 'what if' scenarios. Am I the only one to be worried that nobody has a plan B if the economy does slow down to tune of 1.4%to 6% as predicted bearing in mind that a reduction of just 0.4% would counteract any saving to be made on what we contribute to the EU?

Yes there will be a recession and a dip in jobs again but we'll be fine like last time

It won't be 'fine' if you are one of those whose job is lost in the 'dip'. It won't be 'fine' if your business goes under due to a massive rise in export tariffs.

we import more from the EU than we export. why would the EU countries put massive tariffs on our goods coming in, knowing that we would do the same to theirs and they have more to lose than we do.

there is a whole load of shit waiting to be dumped on us the minute we vote to stay in.

have you not noticed on the news? no mention of migrant boats or chunnel problems. No mention of the greater integration that is planned.

No mention of the new controls over the army and the police due in 2017.

we have a veto because the EU allows us to have one. they can take these away when they want because we will be outvoted.

its a shit storm either way and speaking as someone who has always wanted out of the EU I wish we had never started this.

why? because when we narrowly vote to stay in, the rest of the EU will be rubbing its hands together knowing that now is the time that they can stitch us up with all the things we opted out of previously.

we import more from the EU than we export. why would the EU countries put massive tariffs on our goods coming in, knowing that we would do the same to theirs and they have more to lose than we do.

Trade tariffs are likely to be punitive to discourage other countries from leaving the EU, and the UK trade position will be massively weakened as we will be one rather insular nation rather than a member of the largest trading bloc in the world.

"Trade tariffs are likely to be punitive to discourage other countries from leaving the EU, and the UK trade position will be massively weakened as we will be one rather insular nation rather than a member of the largest trading bloc in the world."

This is utter bollocks typical of the Remain liars. The EU are not going to attempt to 'punish' us like so many naughty children. The EU might be a mess, but they are not as stupid as all that.

If (and it won't be) Britain is punished by Europe, then the whole world will suffer. We import $100 billion a year from Germany, our number one import partner. Tariffs on Britain would damage Germany and without Germany the EU disintegrates in five minutes flat.

Meanwhile, guess who our number one export partner is? It's not Germany, but the US, to which we import $50 billion.

The idea that the EU would start a trade war with the UK, thereby damaging Germany , is so laughably idiotic it hardly bears discussing.

It is in nobody's interests to impose punitive trade tariffs, and it's just typical of the REMAIN scare tactics to threaten such nonsense which could never come true.

Those EU green laws are set up to save lives.

What exactly are these? The constant fining for london and its air pollution? That does nothing but cost money, doesn't make londons air cleaner.

The EU was part of the pushing diesel engines on us, this kills thousands.

NuckyT if we vote to leave and sadly I don't think we will, it will be the beginning of the end.

The EU will either disintegrate rapidly with countries like Greece and Italy seeing the genie is out of the bottle and also wanting to do it or the EU staff - of which there are a huge and well paid number - will not want to look like the turkeys voting for Christmas and we will see a rapid reform of the eu back to what it used to be and should be, a trading place.

make no mistake, there are a number of other eu countries waiting to see us leave so that they can too.

This is utter bollocks typical of the Remain liars. The EU are not going to attempt to 'punish' us like so many naughty children.

Exactly. People keep saying we will be isolated if we leave. No we won't we will be building bridges with the rest of the world and tearing down the wall the EU has made. Eu is on its way down, let's not keep on a sinking ship.

If it was just free trade I might of voted remain. But its some kind of pollitical superstate. All the countries are so different long term it will never work.

Greece tried to leave as its screwed them over making them all poorer overnight and were told they weren't allowed to leave.

Does anyone even know for certain that we can leave? does the treaty that we signed up to allow this?

when ever the question is asked its met with a stony silence. look what happened in Ireland when they voted against one of the treaties. the eu wouldn't accept it and made them vote again and surprise surprise the vote came back in their favour and wasn't fixed at all!

Greece was told "there is no mechanism to leave" when they wanted to.

If people don't follow what the masters want, we will just vote again till we give the right answer.

Tariffs don't have to be punitive to affect trade and business health, they just have to exist, which they do not at the moment within the single market, nor do they with other countries with which the EU has trade deals (Switzerland, Norway, etc.). The EU will be much more important to the UK as a trading partner than the other way round, therefore any deal struck will be asymmetric - the EU will also be much more important as a trade partner to India, China, the US and Australia.

This is utter bollocks typical of the Remain liars.

And there's the measured tone which has so enlightened this debate. What a lovely country this is to live in nowadays.

With the state of the EU, I am more worried if we stay!

Everything on here is conjecture. We don't know because it will all have to be renegotiated. It is foolhardy to think we will have the power to state our terms and they will be agreed. That is not Remain scare tactics it is commonsense

If someone can show me the short to long term plan of what will happen if we leave I would love to see it. You can not. Because it doesn't exist. There have been objective stated; financial, immigration, legal.

But no path of how that can be achieved other than 'Leave' and it will just happen

Does anyone even know for certain that we can leave? does the treaty that we signed up to allow this?

The Treaty of Lisbon contains provisions for countries to leave. The only previous 'leaver' was Greenland, which was an autonomous dependency rather than a member state.

make no mistake, there are a number of other eu countries waiting to see us leave so that they can too.

There are also countries trying to get IN - Macedonia, Montenegro, and Albania. Let's not forget, the 'Leave' wizard Michael Gove said that the UK should be looking to Albania for inspiration.

The leave campaign is just that - a campaign to leave the EU. they aren't in government they don't have ministers they don't have a budget, they don't know what it is.

the idea that somehow this campaign should have a formal costed programme is completely bonkers. they cant do, they are an idea, a movement not a political party.

Were the people involved in the arab spring movement asked to provide costed proposals and answers to everything? no they weren't. they were also a movement.

there is no mechanism for coming out of the EU fills me with absolute dread because if the vote is a close Out one then I think we will be told no, we wont let you leave, you need to re-vote. No one in the EU is saying this. no one is saying this is what the process will be if you vote out. all you get is we hope you don't but if you do we will wait and see.

I am much, much more afraid about what will happen to Britain if it stays in the eu than if it leaves because I think all vetos will be taken off of the table and our rebate just wont exist. nothing Cameron got from them in the way of concessions was in writing.

NuckyT is the thought of our economy having to subsidise Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania - because they aren't going to be net contributors to the euro club are they - supposed to make me want to vote in???

Of course countries with higher unemployment and lower productivity/exports want to join a club where they get more out of it than they put in. wouldn't you want to join in their position?

*is the thought of our economy having to subsidise Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania - because they aren't going to be net contributors to the euro club are they - supposed to make me want to vote in???

Of course countries with higher unemployment and lower productivity/exports want to join a club where they get more out of it than they put in. wouldn't you want to join in their position?*

Wish I could like posts!

These threads just bring home to me how bloody complicated this all is!
People cannot agree because none of us have no idea what will happen if we leave. It's all speculation.

any idea

"we have a veto because the EU allows us to have one. they can take these away when they want because we will be outvoted."
In certain areas we have a veto which cannot be changed as it is set out in the treaty concerned.

If we vote to leave we will indeed leave.Article 50 says "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements."

We will be much worse off if we leave and I hope as many mumsnetters as possible tomorrow vote to remain.

sandrabedminster I think the UK is going to bottle it and vote in but really narrowly. then within days there will be an outcry about "things the EU are doing to us" and MN will be full of posters saying "if I had known that the EU were going to do XX to the UK then I would have voted out"

Let me get this right. Pretty much everyone on MN hated Gove for what he did to the education system. Pretty much everyone on MN hated Duncan Smith for what he did to the benefits system. Everyone said they were morons who didn't know what they were talking about and wrecked things.

But apparently they are right on this and we should listen to them?

If the vote does go Leave, as sure as eggs is eggs, Cameron is finished. He said he would go at the end of this Parliament, but he'll be pushed out almost immediately. There will not be a general election but a Gordon Brown style leadership contest with Osborn vs Johnson. Johnson will win, be PM despite no one having voted for him for four years and his chief ministers will be Gove and Duncan Smith.

Just THINK about that for a moment.

OrangesAndLemons
It's ridiculous to insinuate that Prof Michael Dougan lacks credibility because he's on the Remain side. It would be a pretty poor show for an academic to undertake a thorough investigation of an issue that it within his area of expertise, weigh up the evidence and then say 'I don't know'. He has arrived at a conclusion and taken a stance based on the evidence before him. That's what academics do.

the short term pain of having another tory twat in charge far far outweighs the long term pain of staying in the EU as far as I am concerned.

You are being too simplistic by putting this as an issue along party lines. it isn't. if it were then Corbyn would have for once stuck to his principles and voted out. I have been at meetings where I have heard him talk about his hatred for the EU.

I think it's a real problem that the prime minister is heading the remain campaign. This is the cause of so much uncertainty and conjecture.

Of course the government has back up plans for what to do if we vote leave. They know what will happen to EU nationals living here, for instance. Of course they have discussed trade deals behind closed doors. But no one will tell the public what will actually happen if we leave.