To be worried that the Brexiteers might be wrong and an economic disaster is waiting if we leave?

[Girlwithnotattoos]

What if we wake up on Friday out of the EU, probably nothing immediately other than some soul searching by the remainders. But what about in the months to come? What if all the economists and world leaders were right? We could be heading down the swanny big time, companies moving to the EU proper, jobs going left right and centre, deficit increasing because of lost revenues (taxes, vat etc).

I've listened to the fervent Brexiteers who have dismissed everything put to them as propaganda and yet they still haven't come up with a plan to counter the 'what if' scenarios. Am I the only one to be worried that nobody has a plan B if the economy does slow down to tune of 1.4%to 6% as predicted bearing in mind that a reduction of just 0.4% would counteract any saving to be made on what we contribute to the EU?

the £350 million is an utter lie : because it is gross of the rebate and the money that comes into the UK
the true figure is around £180m

or to put that in real terms,
one small cappucino from a major chain, per person, per week.

which is not much of a price to pay for the benefits we get.

1, On Friday shares and the pound will plummet (if we vote to leave - we won't vote to leave but if we did).

1. That means immediately anyone about to receive a pension and amny cmpanies with investments will immediately be worse off as will anyone holding a property or cash in a different country, holiday home abroad etc.
2. Companies will put their Brexit plans into play immediately (I will have loads of work and money as a lawyer but despite that I will vote with my sense, not for my wallet, and vote to stay in), Many will choose to be based in Paris or Berlin not London,. Capital and money will flow out of the UK.
3. New Eu rules which are just agreed like say the new EU data protection regulation and trade secrets directive will not come into force and we will need to start thinking about things like visas and paying for them if you want to visit Paris. Price of goods we import will gradually go up as there will be customs duties unless and until we agree any free trade deals. If you want a free trade deal with the EU you have to pay the EU so we will have to make it massive payments but instead will do so without the current ability to influence that legislation.

And much else... which is why most people including most mumsetters will vote for Britain and vote to remain.

I think interest rates will go up if we vote to stay in. Our economy is doing well, the only reason they haven't risen already is the fear of Brexit.

We will vote to Remain. Interest rates will rise. House prices will I time to jog along, especially on the South East. The EU will set about fixing it's problems which means more fiscal Union.

People will be bitching up a storm by Xmas.

Goneto: you really have fallen for the whole Cameron disaster scenario...

Do remember he said prior to the negotiations - we will be fine out and he would campaign to leave if we dont' get his "deals" ....

Looking at how markets/currencies/stocks are affected by rumours/world events etc. that is how they make money. They are hedging/betting - it's what they do. They are the only ones enjoying the current situation - bit like betting shops - once decision is made - it all dies down and businesses will get on with forging plans.

Businesses will be pressuring Merkel for best deal possible to sell their goods to us. Hollande and Merkel are up for elections soon and have lots of domestic problems as well as Eurozone problems - they will listen to their big businesses about trade etc. The Commission wil have to listen to its remaining two largest contributors (German and France).

85% of our businesses do not trade with EU, but have to adhere to red tape issues. The country won't implode.

Government is hoping wer're all too scared to realise that drops and rallies etc are normal occurrences on anything that "happens", basically.

Have a look at the last election time and look at the ups and downs in the markets, it is all relative.

Look at what is actually happening in the EU countries' economies. When the news is finally released this summer re. banking crisis in Italy etc we will be even more of a safe haven for investment no longer tied to a failing economic area.

China is biggest threat to our stock market. When that comes, we are better being a nimble self governing country that can react to world events - not weighed down by failing EU zone run by a Commission that will not change course.

Letty - investments are investments - not guarantees - the country isn't run for the benefit of an individual's savings scheme.

The economy will have its ups and downs, possibly fewer downs for no longer being attached to a failing economic zone.

I just wouldn't advise anyone to withdraw their pension on Friday itself, but you might want to look at what Edi Truel (above link) says about pensions being safer outside of EU.

I do hope people don't vote based on the "hassle" of a visa. Let's face it was always just handing over £10 and filling out passport details, whilst sitting on the plane travelling to Turkey etc. It really was that much hassle.

Both campaigns have pedalled an inordinate amount of nonsense. No one knows what is going to happen either way.

What swings it for me is that the leave side need a strategy on what to do. There is no evidence that there is one, therefore I conclude we unfortunately have to stay in. But the that the EU is going to work in the long term I am unconvinced of. So really we are damned if we do and damned if we don't.

The EU is damaging for trade outside its own borders, I really believe that there are more opportunities outside. But the idea that we can close our borders overnight is pure fantasy.

Oh ffs if we dont leave now we never wil this is the last ever time to make a big change for the better ! There will be no other election for this and the EU is just going to get worse. Yes there will be a recession and a dip in jobs again but we'll be fine like last time and this time we come out of it a strong independant country once more

No one knows what is going to happen either way.

Many here think they do fear story's a rife if we leave.

Markets go up and down, that's what they do. Anyone that knows anything knows short term fluctuations aren't significant in the bigger picture.

sandra : yes. A good analogy would be:

Those awful "furniture sale" adverts or blimmin Laura Ashley ones.

They rely on the average person only paying attention when they are in a position to part with their money and look at the furniture. They arrive at the shop and "oh my goodness - there's 60% off, I must buy it".

However if you drive past the shop in six weeks time - the very same 60% sale is "on" again.

The markets are the markets - those that don't pay any attention for the last ten years are suddenly scared by experts (furniture sellers) saying "you must do as I say".

Andrea Leadsom - good on subject - ex chief inv off of Invesco - knows the city - listen to what she says on the subject (not a politician).

Well clearly Andrea is now a politician - but had long career in the City of London prior to that.

My dh is in City and I would say was 50/50 in/out but now veering more to an out vote amongst colleagues.

No one knows what is going to happen either way.

Well as I'm voting leave I have been told to day to 'fuck off out of the country'....

What I find interesting is no matter the result there will be hysterical posts about their side losing abd it's a disaster. it seems it's about 50:50 on MN so so many more people are gonna be called cunts and all numbers of things because they dared vote how they thought was best

And twitttwoowery don't forget that for years whatever happens in the uk will be blamed on either the decision to remain or leave.... Despite the fact we won't have anything to compare it to.

don't forget that for years whatever happens in the uk will be blamed on either the decision to remain or leave.... Despite the fact we won't have anything to compare it to.

And whoever backed the winning result will be championing all the wonderful benefits we got - like the Thatcher apologists who have a clear vision of what life would have been like without her despite there being no way of knowing.

LettyJane

You are wasting time and cash being a lawyer. With such certain detailed knowledge of everything the future holds, you simply need to play the lotto in future.

those i know are voting out because they feel its the only way they can say "enough is enough". and some who are outwardly "remain" tell me its only bdcause they have been accused of racism so they will actually vote out.

immigration IS an issue, i see tangible evidence of this daily, from the police telling us in my estate to ensure our doors are locked because some who have been put up in a hotel neearby are trying doors to see if they are open, to me being harassed to get in a car full of men with my 7 year old, my friend being spat on, it goes on. People are scared of what will happen with immigration and they possibly feel this is the only way they will be heard, misplaced perhaps but where i live, where future prospects are bleak anyway, i think its a case of things cant get much worse.

im out, because i too need to be heard on this issue. i dont know if brexit will improve the immigration problem, probably not, but it cant get any worse, and i need to be heard.

Letty I can see International City types decamping to Paris, but not to Berlin.

But Gah, heard at what cost? If you don't think it's likely to make a difference to immigration, and the vast majority of experts in just about every field in the country are saying it will hurt Britain in all sorts of ways (such as redundancies), how is that going to work out? Being heard while losing nothing is liberating. Being heard while jumping off a cliff is...risky.

And lets be clear gonetoseeadog there are risks in staying in an economic area where several countries have 50% ish youth unemployment. Short term risks are easier to predict hence the evidence from the 'experts'.

I don't think it will change immigration that much though.

leave the roundabout

How can I put this politely...

It could pan out as you describe but it just as easily (or considerably more easily) will be a very different story. If I've 'fallen for' the Cameron disaster scenario (and I think you're being disingenuous pinning the majority view on one unpopular politician) then so have most people, which is surprising given that they are world experts in their fields and too well-informed to 'fall for' anything.

The economic argument is not about what the markets do this week or next week either.

Migration won't necessarily decrease if we 'Brexit'. People are assuming an awful lot. The government has given no indication of how they intend to proceed if we do vote to leave. For all we know they'll pacify businesses in the EU by keeping the exact same conditions going.

Interesting to note, though, that we are presently flourishing within the EU and regardless of Brexit, changes are afoot that will see it working better for us.

Yes, in many ways at the present time that is true.

Wow the Brexiters on this thread really do like their stereotypes dont they. And the snobbery .....wow.

Im educated to GCSE level I am voting Remain.

This is the second stereotype ive seen today (no doubt i will find a third when i finish reading the thread) The first one was how childfree by choice ppl enjoy lie ins and expensive holidays.

Quite how i fit into that as a teetotal childfree by choice social housing tenant i dont know.

Off topic yes but just an example of how you cannot pigeon hole people by stereotype because they dont fit into a neat little box.

Off topic yes but just an example of how you cannot pigeon hole people by stereotype because they dont fit into a neat little box.

A lesson for both sides

Someone has started another thread claiming that being able to scrap the EU green laws is a wonderful reason to vote for Brexit.

I now understand why some voters have no problem with Boris's failure to look ahead. It really does seem like a compassion/ethics malfunction and mindless veneration of the almighty buck. Those EU green laws are set up to save lives.