To be worried that the Brexiteers might be wrong and an economic disaster is waiting if we leave?

[Girlwithnotattoos]

What if we wake up on Friday out of the EU, probably nothing immediately other than some soul searching by the remainders. But what about in the months to come? What if all the economists and world leaders were right? We could be heading down the swanny big time, companies moving to the EU proper, jobs going left right and centre, deficit increasing because of lost revenues (taxes, vat etc).

I've listened to the fervent Brexiteers who have dismissed everything put to them as propaganda and yet they still haven't come up with a plan to counter the 'what if' scenarios. Am I the only one to be worried that nobody has a plan B if the economy does slow down to tune of 1.4%to 6% as predicted bearing in mind that a reduction of just 0.4% would counteract any saving to be made on what we contribute to the EU?

Mary: our markets go up and down precisely because we have a floating adaptable currency (unlike the Euro).

Markets work on making money on rumours and facts - this is why they pile in and out. Same with rumours/polls at general election affecting markets etc.

When all the bad news hits after the referendum regarding EU zone financial problems our currency will be looking very attractive again.

It will go up and then it will go down and then up again. That is certain if we are in or out - nothing stays the same.

Nothing is certain; however, if we are in charge of our own destiny, we can react more effectively to world events - than when weighed down by a failing economic zone.

mummymeister
can you name your MEP?
Yup.
One of the ones for my area is a chap called Nigel Farage
a man who finances UKIP with EU money
has taken pay cheques for being on the fisheries committee for years but never turns up
who is married to a German and made his millions in merchant banking

Out of EU is Te only way forward in my opinion . And I am speaking as someone living here 20 yrs from one of the European countries.

Enough of scrounges from all over the world , enough of Great Britan loosing its identity .
Bring the highly skilled imigrants . Look into what this country is turning into ? Look at the housing, NHS , crime ... Schools. Drop in education !
Britain is not what it used to be . On 50 years Britain will be shell of itself. And this is all with wrong immigration and not genuin refugees but rather economic migrants posing as refugees .
England should wake up and English people are tooooo nice , too tolerant , tooo kind , tooo helpful but when it comes to them all other countries love to exploit their soft heart and wish to be fair .

Only way in my opinion is out and either way it won't be easy but at least other little ( including my country) won't be using Britan .

Sorry about typos and speeding my phone is just doing its own thing

I imagine if we vote to leave, they will make us vote again until they get the result they want.

The vote isn't legally binding, its just an opinion poll.

if we are in charge of our own destiny, we can react more effectively to world events - than when weighed down by a failing economic zone

I think this
smaller is maneuverable
smaller organisations can innovate and adapt where massive bureaucracies become mired in outmoded and inefficient ways of operating

Peace:
We would still be able to have people from EU to continue to carry out jobs we felt there was a requirement for, or people from outside EU.

The leave vote isn't asking people to go. The ones that are here currently will retain all previous rights gained under that treaty. Vote to leave is saying we can't continue to sustain this level of uncontrolled movement of people. That we wish to have a level of accountability and planning involved for future services etc.

How many school places are required in 5/10 years - any idea?

No one has a clue currently. If we have a relatively stable population (as in the past) which we can then invite people to join depending on skill requirements (ie pre 2004) the population can have some approximation of likely growth.

I really can't see how people say that just providing more schools etc will solve it. Taking that idea - say it turned out that all the EU migrants are in fact transient and all intend to return home before their children started school. We would be left with the infrastructure for a larger population.

What do we do plan school places based on birth statistics? How are we able to plan/predict anything when we don't have the concept of British citizen anymore - we have EU citizen may stay here/may return to home country.

I wouldn't even plan Sunday lunch without a rough idea of numbers.

We pay millions (literally) to stay in the EU, just think of what that money could be used for .. More jobs, more money for the economy and Britain could become an independent island. Look at India, they've been independent for over 50 years I believe we could do the same. We use to have an empire and we can make Britain great again. Being in the EU makes us obligated to pay out other countries who are in a financial crisis, I believe the EU don't have our backs .. They turned against us twice and two world wars were born and let's not forget to mention Eurovision .. England get .... Nil points for political reasons. However, if we do end up out of the EU prepare to fill out visas to visit Spain, France etc.

On Thursday when you vote, vote for a real reason because I've heard a lot of voters are voting out for racist reasons.

Peace - if he was at the meeting or not it wouldn't affect anything re. fisheries or anything else. Our MEPs aren't worth the salary that's for sure. I know Farage and Hannan's position is vote to leave - and vote them out of the wasteful pointless job.

I've posted on another thread. Lots of simplistic information that people believe MEPs impact - they can't. Mind you they can, if you can form lots of alliances with smaller countries. The Commission is all for redistributing EU (our) money to helping countries join the experiment to "harmonise" Europe.

The EU suits big business and officials in small countries - they literally cannot believe their luch. The lobbyists also love it. Suspect there is one on this thread (not you Peace) .....

For those who are saying that we pay £350m "membership fee" (by the way the number is lower) do you know that the EU could impose significant tariffs to imports from the UK.

Worst case scenario the EU imposes a 4% duty on British exports. Then we would feel duty bound to retaliate with an import tariff into the UK. Consequence: very high inflation and loss of jobs.

In the meantime, many companies would move to France or Germany (and believe me they will) so there are fewer jobs.

And by the way, the Brits can't replace the well educated Europeans, simply because there are not enough of them at the moment

Also, how many British people want to be cleaning ladies, etc.

To those who can ride 10 years of recession: lucky you, you know that the majority can't.

Please all wake up, we need to leave a better country/world for our children and being a little island with antagonistic neighbours is not the right way.

I never, ever thought I would see the day when My beloved Great Britain would decide to go all alone in a dangerous world without the necessary resources.

Really interesting article (US based) on why the EU would be better off without Britain.

www.vox.com/2016/6/21/11974600/brexit-eu-euro-disaster

Girlwithtatoos: zero hours contracts etc were much rarer ten plus years ago. It is precisely because of an oversupply of cheap labour that companies get away with them.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/may/17/exit-europe-from-the-left

Good article by the late Bob Crow in Guardin attached - the left abandoned their core voters leaving UKIP to scoop them up. The right wing in the Tory were able to highjack the idea of leaving EU as "racist" and keep big banks and business happy.

"Social EU legislation, which supposedly leads to better working conditions, has not saved one job and is riddled with opt-outs for employers to largely ignore any perceived benefits they may bring to workers. But it is making zero-hour contracts and agency-working the norm while undermining collective bargaining and full-time, secure employment. Meanwhile, 10,000 manufacturing jobs in the East Midlands still hang in the balance because EU law demanded that the crucial Thameslink contract go to Siemens in Germany rather than Bombardier in Derby.

Today, unemployment in the eurozone is at a record 12%. In the countries hit hardest by the "troika" of banks and bureaucrats, youth unemployment tops 60% and the millions of personal tragedies of lost homes, jobs, pensions and services are testament to the sick joke of "social Europe".

The raft of EU treaties are, as Tony Benn once said, nothing more than a cast-iron manifesto for capitalism that demands the chaos of the complete free movement of capital, goods, services and labour. It is clear that Greece, Spain, Cyprus and the rest need investment, not more austerity and savage cuts to essential public services, but, locked in the eurozone, the only option left is exactly that."

"We pay millions (literally) to stay in the EU, just think of what that money could be used for" - well i don't think a conservative govt is going to spend that money on the weakest in society or on health or carers or social housing....

also we have had literally millions in farmers subsidies, infrastructure eg roads in rural wales, etc etc

I have thought that all of the negative forecasts about what will happen in we leave, are scaremongering. But a friend who writes financial forecasts for the market is convinced things will indeed be very negative if we leave.

"Personally I think there are pros and cons of remaining and pros and cons of leaving, each effecting differently individuals differently. What is 'right' for one person won't necessarily be 'right' for me, which is why I respect everyones individual vote."

I'm not voting on what I think is best for Me personally. I'm voting for what I think is best for us as a whole.

helpbuyinghouse: One of the reason companies are attracted here is because we have trusted Judicial and monetary systems.

Also educated people from around the world are easy to attract to come and work here -UK being desirable for cultural and social reasons.

It will be easier to arrange for a highly skilled person from outside the EU to gain access to employment in the UK - we would therefore attract more business. At the same time, inviting lower skilled workers if our economy requires them.

It isn't as easy to attract the best in the world to come and work in dingy old Frankfurt etc. or France - companies don't like to invest in France because the culture of workers protest.

There is massive unrest on the continent as regards jobs. The riots have been mostly absent from the British press. For those living there - it is real - they can even smell it.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-strikes-rubbish-paris-euro-2016-dispute-continues-a7074156.html

It is not some cosy EU land out there we are leaving. It is financially ruined and the mediaterrean countries are suffering. It is a mess and needs massive reform - and it won't happen if we vote to stay.

The French government are trying to establish EU norms for working practices (remember in UK we have over and above the EU recommended maternity pay etc - our biggest fear should be those being reduced to EU minimums to "harmonise" the workforce).

In France "employers are too scared to offer the sacrosanct "CDIs"
and issue temporary contracts there also.

www.reuters.com/article/us-france-politics-protests-idUSKCN0Y90ZX
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36385778
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35803001
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/26/france-oil-strikes-thousands-of-dock-workers-set-off-smoke-bomb/
www.rt.com/sport/346115-euro-2016-strikes-paris/

President Hollande's problem: "Some 600,000 more people are in the dole queues today than there were in 2012. Most of them are young people - another group who the president promised to pay special attention to when he took office.

Equally damning: for all France's vaunted social protection, 90% of new job contracts today are short-term "CDDs", which normally last just three months. Employers are too scared to offer the sacrosanct "CDIs" - which are permanent.

Leavetheroundabout, politicians are not the smartest but in this circumstance, they will want the companies and the jobs that come with them.

Were I the French or German pm, I would offer red carpet treatment to companies wanting to leave the UK.

The EU is bad, but a UK all by itself is a disaster. I am convinced, I have already voted (remain of course) and will just hope that leave doesn't happen.

Looking at what the FTSE was doing last week when Leave seemed to be gathering momentum it's clear to me that the leave vote would result in a serious stock market crash (and subsequent recession) featuring major bank collapses and various trauma.

This. It doesn't matter if Brexit is a good idea or not because the rest of the world thinks it isn't and will get the hell out...making Brexit a disaster for Britain.

And English is of course widely spoken language not french or German
n

more doom and gloom for remain.

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/677801/new-EU-threat-pension-expert-vote-leave-protect-retirement-pots

Not sure using the Express as your source is a good idea.

Iamslave, but if the markets collapse many pensions will be worth much less. So if the ftse 100 market cap is 2 trillion a 10% fall is 200 billion. Obviously not all ftse is in pension funds but please do look at all angles before making a decision

Leave. I do like your small, but nimble analogy. Having worked for both global and SME's I know which is more efficient. Which is fairer is a whole new new ballgame!

Alivs, does it matter who brings the news?

Really?

"Mr Truell told the Daily Express that it will cost the corporate pension schemes a “staggering £150 billion” just to pay for the red tape, which he described as “an unconscionable amount of money”.

He pointed out that the EU has already imposed the same rules on British and European insurers which has reportedly cost Legal and General alone £3 billion in just filling out extra paperwork.

To make matters worse, EIOPA wants to force insurers and pension funds to mostly invest in government bonds in what some see as a bid to prop up “worthless” Greek and Italian bonds to help prevent the euro zone collapsing.

He told the express. He did, the man who thinks this.