To wish we could get some decent advice on whether to vote to Brexit or Bremain

[lougle]

I am an intelligent woman. I am well educated. I can't for the life of me work out what is truth and what is fiction. I have no idea what is right for this country.

I don't want to spoil my vote. I want to vote, and vote with conviction. But I don't have the first clue which way to vote. I'm a nurse and I love my NHS, if that makes a difference to how I should vote.

Some of the law firms have good documents on the vote - there is also a House of Commons library briefing note and the Bar Council has some guidance too. It's all fairly balanced (a bit pro-remain in places) but it is sensible, no scare-mongering and plenty of facts.

You could also look at The Conversation which has various articles on different aspects - with different viewpoints.

Tbh I can't afford to be £400 worse off a year, never mind 4k.

This is how it will go if brexit gets voted through: Cameron will hang on for a bit and then be forced out. That will see the way clear for Boris to head the Tory party. Boris is a scarier proposition than Cameron for every decent person, especially the disabled. Even 4 months ago Boris was saying leaving Europe was a bad idea but now it seems to fit his agenda. He's openly admitted to not knowing much about it but backs it as a way to become PM.

I also can't afford to travel abroad. It's not like I'm voting Remain because it will personally benefit me. But all but the very wealthy will be worse off. Our farmers won't be receiving EU subsidies any more so the cost of food will rise steeply.

I already can't afford basic living standards and fail to see how leaving will improve that. I haven't read one coherent argument from Brexit. I think I'll go with the economists on this and just about every leader in the free world.

These threads only serve to illustrate the fact that we should not be having a referendum on this. It shouldn't be up to average joe who can't get a straight answer or fair picture. Such a crucial decision and it's been used as a tool by our PM and caused nothing but ill feeling. The choice has to be made sure but if it goes wrong then you'll be blaming the man next to you, not the government we sort of elected to do this stuff. Lucky them

I totally agree with this.

Thank you all for your posts so far.

What I see, in the NHS, is that about 25% of the nurses on my unit are from outside the UK. 50% ish, of those nurses come from the Philippines, some from India, a small number from EU countries. All without exception, are excellent. So we rely heavily on foreign nurses to keep us afloat. My Trust recently recruited 80 nurses then the Govt. refused them all visas because they wouldn't earn enough. After a lot of negotiation it was overturned and the nurses were allowed their visas.

I think we're in trouble whatever we do.

For me, I look at the claims/arguments on the issues that are important to me and I get down to the source material as close as I can. And I give more credence to claims that seem to have a better evidence base or come from more credible and independent sources.

You're right, it's clear as mud and very few people seem willing to say 'it's actually a bit more complicated than black and white dog whistle politics'.

This is how it will go if brexit gets voted through:

There's a lot of this about - I'm not saying you're wrong (or right) but not everyone can be right. The only facts - as Martin Lewis observed - i sthat there are no facts, because we don't and cannot know what may happen, and that is true for leave and remain alike.

There is masses of information!

Try yesterday's Times.
On BBC iplayer there are all of More or Less's programmes devoted to every aspect of Brexit.

"it's actually a bit more complicated than black and white dog whistle politics'."

So true, and whilst there is a mass of information it's not all good quality information - there's so much swimming around that it's extremely hard (IMO) for the average person to actually fully understand what's involved. I don't mean that in a rude or patronising way, just that it's incredibly complicated and that combined with the amount of misinformation and propaganda makes it really hard for many people. TBH I think it's worse than the Scottish Referendum was, and that's saying something

OP while we don't have control of immigration and while it is the number 1 area of concern for the public, the government will try all sorts of outlandish ways to keep down the numbers. So as we have free movement with the EU it tries to minimise non EU immigration - even if this means denying the NHS workers that it needs.

A Leave vote will mean we can rationalise our immigration policy. Admit the people we need, bring the overall numbers down and restore faith in the system. Until that happens the government's approach to immigration is going to be ad hoc and irrational as you have experienced.

A very smart accountant I know, when I asked, gave the answer: "I see this as a very messy divorce situation. Would I rather we had never got married? (Joined EU) Absolutely. But now that we are, the divorce would be so messy and acrimonious, and I fear that the jilted party (EU) would do everything in its power to make life difficult for us. For that reason, I think it's probably better to stay married even though I wish we'd never walked down that aisle."

I see his point very clearly.

There is a lot of good information out there, but you have left it very late to try and brush up.

This book is an excellent summary of the facts. That crowd pack online quz is surprisingly good too as a starting point.

I quite like that Lougle.

I sent my postal vote today and I am voting to stay. I was always leaning towards stay but it's such a massive issue I wanted to research properly and I've sought the opinions of almost everyone I know [varying ages, levels of education, ethnicity] and I have read a lot

Martin Lewis (love him!!!) said it perfectly on his blog:

"Anyone who tells you they KNOW what’ll happen if we leave the EU is a liar. Predicting exact numbers for economic, immigration or house price change is nonsense. What’s proposed is unprecedented. All the studies, models and hypotheses are based on assumptions – that’s guesstimate and hope"

and I think that sums it up perfectly!

** ML isn't a 'remain' campaigner and this is just a snippet from a recent blog post

This is what Martin Lewis wrote which i found very helpful: blog.moneysavingexpert.com/2016/06/05/how-to-vote-in-the-eu-referendum/

Why would it be any tougher to get EU nurses into NHS than from Philippines or India (which happens a lot already, so can't be too tough).

I'm a Strong In, but I think that list of Leave supporters upthread is quite unfair!! :)
Some Brexiters who stick in my mind who I would tend to give some credit to, even if I don't see things same as them:

MPs: Gisela Stewart, Andrea Lansome, Frank Field
Business folk: Digby Jones, James Dyson
Journalists: Gerard Lyons, Suzanne Moore, & another Guardian economics journo whose name escapes to me...

Sad to say, some of them are rich, mind. Funny how successful people tend to be rich.

Staying with EU because you think they will make the divorce horrible is not a good reason to stay, imho. It would be outrageous for us to feel we are entitled to any special deal from EU if we do decide to leave. That would be like divorcing but insisting you are forever entitled to inherit all their stuff if they die.

The Guardian's Larry Elliot seems to favour Leave

another one saying read Martin Lewis' blog - despite the title he's not telling you how to vote, or bleating abuse because you don't agree with how he thinks he is going to vote.

I suggest ignoring irrelevant celebrities (is there another kind?) and politicians promising doom if you don't do what they say. Remember that we already have high inflation (petrol alone up 10 -15% in a year) and as someone upthread says, our manufacturing industry has long been almost destroyed. Also anyone yelling insults on the Thames can safely be discounted.

it is a big don't know either way - I think we've pissed off the EU so much that whatever we do is now risky.

but do vote.

and there is a week to go, it is absolutely not too late!

I think the Brexit campaign are being disingenuous regarding the immigration figures, too.

Did you know I am an immigrant? I and thousands and thousands like me?

I have British parents and I live in the UK, but I was born abroad. That makes me an immigrant. My father was in the British Armed Forces and I was born in a British Military hospital (so was Graham Coxon from Blur - he's an immigrant, too) but that doesn't even automatically give me British citizenship.

So I, and every other child born to parents who were living and working abroad, are immigrants and we're included in those numbers being bandied around.

"The major problem is NOBODY knows what will happen if we leave"

Actually, we do know SOME of what will definitely happen if UK leaves the EU:

• Trade will go to shit for many years, as agreements will suddenly be null and void and it will take a long time for new framework to be put in place. And it's doubtful that it will be advantageous for the UK.

• Foreign investments will skid to a halt, because nobody in their right mind will make substantial investments in a country that doesn't have its international legal framework in place. Talk to anyone in investment banking or private equity if you don't believe me.

• Banks and corporations that have based their European headquarters in London because it is Anglophone & in the EU will move out, as there will be absolutely zero advantage to basing their operations in the UK. I hear that many are planning a move to Ireland if Brexit happens.

But hey ho, there will be less immigrants from EU countries, so who cares

It is very easy to actually find some succinct information with very little effort. I'll summarise what I think is the most useful info I found.

If you look at the entire expenditure of the UK, 0.3% of that goes on the EU. 0.3%. It is the UK's SMALLEST item of expenditure. To put that into perspective, we spend almost 15% on Health, 12% on pensions, over 9% on education, over 4% on defence. We spend 1.4% on culture, religion and sport. Agriculture, the environment, all get more.

One of the big things from people who say we should leave is that we will save a fortune not being in the EU and that we could plough all that money into projects here at home. One of the main points I heard is that all the money we spend on the EU would "save" the NHS.

That idea alone is such total bollocks as what we spend on the EU is just 2% of what we spend on the NHS at present. Yeah, like 2% is gonna transform the NHS.

Everything the Leave campaign says is a wish list. We MAY be better off, we MAY be able to control our borders better, we MAY be this. Frankly, we MAY not and with the state of the world the way it is now, I'd prefer some certainties over finger in the air guesswork.

Immigration is a total and utter red herring when you look at the actual numbers of immigrants who come here compared with other countries, and the fact that most of those who do come here DO work, DO contribute and in some industries. We'd grind to a total halt if they didn't. There are more workshy born and bred British people than immigrants.

And no one has yet been able to answer this question to me: Gove, Grayling, Johnson and other politicians in the Leave camp all campaigned for Scotland to remain part of the UK with the phrase "we're stronger together". Now they want to leave the EU because we'd be stronger NOT together. That doesn't make sense, does it? So were they lying then, or lying now?

If we Leave, then as sure as eggs as eggs, as soon as the time is right, Scotland will have another referendum and this time they will vote to leave the UK.

I will admit there's a lot about the EU I do not like and may never like. And it has surprised myself that I am going to vote in. But I've done my research.

Oh and anyone who thinks we should listen to the likes of Dyson who thinks we should stay in when he decamped off to Asia to get most of his stuff made because it was cheaper and meant he'd pay less tax in this country is quite frankly a moron.

Free movement is an advantage to Brits too - 2 million Brits live in other EU countries. It's not all one-way traffic. And you could argue that immigration from the EU is only causing a problem because the government has this austerity agenda and therefore does not want to spend money on infrastructure (except for HS 2 which has nothing to do with immigration/population growth) eg more medical facilities and schools as well as dealing with housing, looking at empty houses and brownfield sites.

And although people disagree that employment rights aren't protected by the EU - they are - and have been extended. For example our Equal Pay Act did not guarantee equal pay for equal work (only the same work) so the EU ruled on that issue, to name but one example.

I am surprised that Gisela Stuart is a Brexiter - I've got a lot of time for her so I respect her views. But given she's German I am surprised that she's on the Brexit side. But my mum has a German neighbour who's voting to leave as well.

But as someone said above - whatever way you're going to vote - get out there and vote. It is really important.

It really worries me. Yes, there is a lot of information. On the topics I know about and understand, I've seen so much bollocks posted though it makes me doubt everything else.

If I say one more person say the eu is to blame for the reduction in fishing vessels and fishing jobs though, I think I will scream.

Some useful info in this thread. Thanks everyone who took the trouble to post.