To ask how Brexit would affect immigration?

[Bearbehind]

It scares me that, as a nation, we have to vote in the EU referendum as there doesn't seem to be any impartial informative advice on which to base a decision.

I think I've made my mind up based on a number of factors but, as far as I can see, the question of immigration will be make or break for many people.

I'm not sure leaving the EU will result in us being able to control immigration much better than we do now but I'm the first to admit I know very little about it.

Will it really change much?

Aer Lingus lists as acceptable ID your driving licence and even a bus pass with a photo!

My experience on the ferry last year was that no ID was asked for at all ...

What is a stem field?

STEM - Science, technology, Engineering and Mathematics

I don't think Brexit will change very much at all about total numbers of migrants. It might just change the country of origin of some of those migrants, is all.

Industries needing skilled migrants will still get them from both EU and non-EU countries, based on qualifications, and industries needing unskilled migrants will source them from poorer non-EU countries, or continue to source them from Lithuania/Romania/etc, only illegally. Those are the industries that were never averse to hiring illegal migrants and offering them abysmal working conditions anyway.

So long as the market demands that people be hired to pick vegetables all day for pennies, those people will be found, whether or not migration laws officially allow it.

So the end result of that would be that immigrants to the UK would, on average, be of greater benefit to the UK economy Rice (?)

If we introduced an ID card or person-number system, illegal working would become significantly harder for employers to organise, particularly post-Brexit.

There are plenty of UK workers who would happily pick fruit IF they had minimum contracted hours, NMW and transport.

If a few exploitative employers who currently offer less than that lose profits, who cares?

If we introduced an ID card or person-number system, illegal working would become significantly harder for employers to organise

Only if we had a extremely expensive and draconian enforcement regime. The more likely outcome would be much more expense and red tape for the law abiding and illegal working would continue as normal. Advocates of ID cards as a magical solution to various issues tend not to have considered the practicalities in a UK context.

Continental countries seem to manage it. Surely we would hear about it if it was ruinously expensive?

Of greater benefit? I wouldn't say so. For the white-collar jobs the benefit will likely remain about the same, and if a lot of now-legal, low-wage employment shifts to illegal, then the state coffers would lose out on contributions. Although shoddy employers would make more money off of it. So it depends whose benefit you're considering, really.

ID cards and person-number systems are no protection against illegal employment. Plenty of it in countries that have such systems.

I agree with you that there are probably local people who would perform low-wage jobs if they had better conditions such as minimum contracted hours, and that would be great for them. However, I don't believe that market pressures are going to change, and employers will therefore be unwilling to improve working conditions for low-wage jobs, so instead it would be a driver for more illegal employment.

As long as consumers want cheap goods, workers' conditions can't improve.

But that's taking us in a completely different direction than a debate on Brexit. Which I don't think is going to change a whole lot in practice.

Even if we leave we may still have no control over immigration if we stay part of the common market. The common market allows for the freedom of movement of products and labour force. That means that immigration rules will continue as they do at the moment but we will not be in the EU. If that is the only reason ppl have to leave then they may leave but still not get their wish.

ID cards and person-number systems are no protection against illegal employment. Plenty of it in countries that have such systems.

Exactly.

A lot of people in illegal employment will be illegal immigrants. Brexit won't change that; it will just mean there is a larger pool of illegal immigrants.

Most illegal immigrants enter the country legally and then overstay. It's hard enough to prevent illegal immigration when most of the immigrants concerned enter through one of two London airports; it'll be next to impossible once you have a pool of 500 million potential illegal immigrants on your doorstep and dozens of ferry ports and regional airports through which they can enter on tourist visas, or no visas at all.

I'm not condoning illegal working, but if you really want to crack down on it, the answer is to crack down on the employers who do it.

I'm not condoning illegal working, but if you really want to crack down on it, the answer is to crack down on the employers who do it.

Indeed - I understand that in France you can be jailed (worker and employer), but I suspect we have a less cohesive view of what's OK here.

Low paid workers suffer from EU immigration as there is no limit on low skill migration. Outside the EU we would get the same level of skilled migration but less unskilled migration - this may cause pay for some jobs to increase and therefore some costs, but food on the world market is about 15% cheaper than in the EU, so overall we will all benefit.

Exactly *carol
*
I'm bemused that so many people think we're living in such complete anarchy that reducing illegal employment even outside the EU and with better ID laws is literally impossible.

"food on the world market is about 15% cheaper than in the EU, so overall we will all benefit...."

What about food production in UK? (outside EU) And people who work to produce food. Would central govt. need to subsidise UK agriculture a lot more than it is now in order to keep UK agriculture employing low-paid workers?

I'm bemused that so many people think we're living in such complete anarchy that reducing illegal employment even outside the EU and with better ID laws is literally impossible.

I'm not surprised you're bemused because nobody said that. We don't need an expensive additional ID system to cut down on illegal working, we need some people to enforce the laws we already have. No-one said anything about anarchy, and some of us were just pointing out that there isn't much evidence of any political will to do any proper enforcement. ID cards are an irrelevance in this context, but would be a good way to waste a lot of money and not solve the problem.

Just to add to the debate on the EU and immigration as a whole, the EU has been a very imperfect mechanism (huge understatement). I listened to a podcast a while ago that discussed implications of migration patterns within the EU. The richer countries with jobs attract people from the poorer countries and there is a longterm detriment to this uneven pattern of migration. Take Portugal for instance, they were hit very hard by the recession and went through years of austerity which led many young professionals to leave Portugal and work in other EU countries. Seven years or so down the line, these workers are settled in their new country, they have friends, maybe families now, they own houses etc... Basically very few of the generation of young educated workers are going to return to Portugal anytime soon. The problem this presents is that Portugal actually came through the recession and EU imposed austerity measures successfully, their economy is now ready to grow again. The only problem- they can't get enough skilled workers because so many left. This is hampering Portugal's progress significantly. The jobs are coming back but a salary in Portugal still cannot compete with what a Portuguese nurse for example, is making in Germany or the UK. In theory, Portugal could attract workers to fill the gap from other EU countries that have high unemployment, except that Portuguese is not widely spoken throughout Europe. There are definitely winners and losers in the EU game of free movement. On a macro level Germany the UK benefit, countries like Portugal lose out, at least for now.

except that Portuguese is not widely spoken throughout Europe

Guess what language is ?

YeOldeTrout - As some commercial farmers have said themselves, the availability of cheap labour to pick crops etc... has simply meant that he farmers haven't felt the need to invest in machinery technology to pick crops.

I'm bemused that so many people think we're living in such complete anarchy that reducing illegal employment even outside the EU and with better ID laws is literally impossible

Me too. Such a defeated mentality.

www.frankfield.co.uk/latest-news/articles/news.aspx?p=1021270

a most crucial issue here is the impact of uncontrolled immigration on our most disadvantaged citizens.

It is the poorest in our communities, those whose choices in life are already by far the most restricted, whose standard of living is most adversely affected by the arrival of a record number of newcomers.

There is a school of belief which quite naturally draws upon compassion to justify the opportunities given to millions of people from the EU to start a new life here. But compassion demands that we consider as a priority the impact that so many new arrivals has on our poorest citizens’ chances of securing the ever scarcer necessities in life — a place at a decent school for their children, a home that they can afford to rent or buy, and swift access to healthcare.

A lethal combination, since 2010, of public-expenditure cuts and unrestricted immigration from the EU has already diminished our poorest citizens’ choices in this regard. Remaining in the EU will, I fear, bring a continued erosion in their living standards.

There is a school of belief which quite naturally draws upon compassion to justify the opportunities given to millions of people from the EU to start a new life here.

Yes I thought exactly that until fairly recently.

But compassion demands that we consider as a priority the impact that so many new arrivals has on our poorest citizens’ chances of securing the ever scarcer necessities in life — a place at a decent school for their children, a home that they can afford to rent or buy, and swift access to healthcare.

And the incoming low-paid workers just join the same struggle.

If loss of labour pool means that farmers invest in technology for harvest, that means fewer low skill jobs for British agricultural workers... right?

One certainty though is that we'd regain our home-grown democracy so that our laws are made here with the UK's interests in mind.

We would still have ties to European laws. I know many people want to vote Out as they want to be freed from the European Court of Human Rights. However that will stay in place as we will still be members of the European Council. We won't be fully independent.

One of the most successful agriculture stories in Western countries in New Zealand, which ended subsidies in 1986 with huge cries of destruction and chaos, but actually made it better and increased production and exports.
Spending public money on something does not make it better, and stopping subsidies does not make it worse.