I think it is a bit of a misnomer that there has been peace in Europe since the invention of the EU.
We need to remember that up until 1989, a lot of current EU member states were under Soviet control and we were living in a cold war political climate. You cannot really argue this was genuine peace. Half of Germany was a client state under foreign jurisdiction. The peace here was kept by NATO, not any incarnation of the EU.
Indeed, one of the main reasons why France wanted the euro was that it was frightened by the potential consequences of German reunification and demanded French use of the Deutschmark as a kind of "financial hostage".
Then, as soon as that ends, the Yugoslav wars start -- and that scenario was criminally mishandled and provoked by the EU, and solved by ... yep, you guessed it ... NATO and the UN Security Council. Now we have this explosive situation in the Ukraine: again, a situation handled badly by the EU.
In among all this, we have the Troubles, the Basque conflict ... none of which was solved by the EU or any of its previous incarnations.
And we now have a simmering situation in Greece, entirely created by the EU and its vested interests, a situation which is extremely problematic considering Greece's relationship with Turkey, their constant low level military engagements, the fact Greece is broke and has thousands of migrants entering the country, and then you have the fact that Merkel and Tusk are courting Erdogan, who is pretty much a provincial-minded yet very manipulative man who is involved in the conflict in neghbouring Syria and who wishes to be the next Sultan of a Neo-Ottoman Empire.
Meanwhile, Lithuania has brought in a rolling six month draft for all males between 18 and 40 because it fears becoming the next Ukraine. What has the EU done in this area to settle or arrest fears? Absolutely nothing.
When the EU is tested, it is found wanting. And not just wanting, it seems unable to function at all, apart from to screw things up even more.
I am voting out, and I am voting out for five main reasons.
- I do not think the EU can be reformed in any meaningful way, and I think it will actually be the cause of civil conflict in at least one member state by 2020 and maybe even transnational conflict by 2016.
- If we vote to remain, then I suspect that mandate will be used to insist we set a date for joining the euro. If we join the euro, the constraints on public spend will be far more of a fiscal shock than our current austerity budgets.
- There is no way the current structure of the British welfare state nor the NHS can survive if we remain in the EU. We will have to move to a more actuarial system.
- I don't trust the current Western elites. If they want something, ten to one, it's going to be something that screws ordinary people somewhere down the line.
- Everything that is positive about EU legislation is already mostly enshrined in UK law.