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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To not take my 3 children to the theatre on Saturday? Terrorism related.

199 replies

Kingfisherfree · 18/11/2015 22:08

I know I am being U but I feel anxious about going to a major city and being confined in a theatre. I have even looked at the seating plan to see how we would get out.

OP posts:
Motheroffourdragons · 20/11/2015 11:50

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LimboNovember · 20/11/2015 12:40

However I have to trust that the authorities are doing their best to protect us wherever we live

I have been reading That Belgium is in a mess when its comes to north and south divide, the mayors have tons of power but that means no central point to communicate effectively, different police branches and everything I have read has led me to believe its no surprise that Jihadis are thriving there.

Utter maddness.

Motheroffourdragons · 20/11/2015 12:57

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DolorestheNewt · 20/11/2015 13:05

^^ what all of them said. Don't give your kids the message that you have to stay at home because of an unbelievably tiny chance of attack. And you are definitely more likely to die of a fatal head injury falling down stairs with a laundry basket. (Just to give you something else to worry about.) But equally, don't give yourself a hard time for being edgy. Lots of people are. It's normal.

Having said which, I shall be checking the whereabouts of emergency exits from now on, and I've stashed a small torch in my handbag.

(Which is good practice anyway. I will never forget listening to a young woman who was interviewed after the police helicopter crashlanded on top of the Clutha. She said she always carries a torch in her bag, because "then you've always got a light". It was incredibly poignant with double meaning. And she led people out of the crash site because of her torch, so it's a really good idea.)

LittleLionMansMummy · 20/11/2015 13:07

Agreed Motherof it's pretty terrifying that of 750 British citizens that went to Syria, half have now returned. A ticking time bomb. It is a widespread problem and perhaps I am being naive to think that British intelligence services can track them all equally.

honeyroar · 20/11/2015 19:18

TBH they're just as likely to target a supermarket or something nxt time, we can't all give up shopping..

LimboNovember · 20/11/2015 19:35

dolors yes and can do morse code with it

catgirl1976 · 20/11/2015 19:39

I do understand how you feel,

I had to get a train in France with DS and DH just after the foiled gunman on the train.

Even though it was irrational I was very nervous. Like you I looked at the seating plans and worried and I was worried all the way there.

But I still went because you cannot let them win and live in fear. And obviously we were fine.

Didn't stop me wishing we could take some off duty marines on holiday with us and having an extra glass of wine to try and calm my nerves.

YANBU to be a bit worried but YWBU not to go.

LimboNovember · 20/11/2015 19:39

mother

From the post 9/11 assassination in Afghanistan of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the anti-Taliban leader and the 2004 Madrid train bombings, to last year’s killings at Brussels’ Jewish museum and this summer’s foiled shooting spree on a high-speed Amsterdam-Paris train, investigators’ lines of inquiry lead to Molenbeek.

www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/15/molenbeek-the-brussels-borough-in-the-spotlight-after-paris-attacks

LimboNovember · 20/11/2015 19:42

The Belgian authorities have previously claimed that as many as 800 Belgians were fighting as jihadi in the Middle East, a figure viewed by experts as improbably high for a country of 11 million, including more than 600,000 Muslims.

ccording to the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, Belgium supplies around 40 foreign fighters for every million inhabitants, a figure twice that of France, four times that of Britain and by far the highest concentration in Europe.

^ extraordinarily high number

LimboNovember · 20/11/2015 19:44

It is a widespread problem and perhaps I am being naive to think that British intelligence services can track them all equally

I would imagine after Paris each one is being closely looked at.

But so many have gone we don't even know about.

I wish we could just raid their houses now, rather than wait for atrocity.

MumOfGorgeousness · 20/11/2015 20:26

Honeyroar - ashamedly I made a very conscious decision to online 'big' shop this week rather than to actually into Tesco as I had planned. I do occasionally get it online anyway, but I couldn't face the big supermarket.

MissTwister · 20/11/2015 23:08

You didn't go to your local Tesco in case you were involved in a terrorist incident?

Sorry but that is ridiculous

psychomath · 20/11/2015 23:51

People keep saying it's more likely that you'd die crossing a road etc, so I thought I'd work it out for myself and see just how much more likely (mostly because I'm procrastinating from my actual work!) The numbers surprised even me, and I was expecting them to be unintuitive, so I thought I'd share them.

By my approximate calculation, if:

  • there was an attack somewhere every single day that claimed as many lives as 9/11
  • none of the attacks took place in Africa or the Middle East, which is where most of this stuff is currently going on
  • in fact, the only places in the world where the attacks happened were Western Europe, USA/Canada, Australia and Russia (obviously if that happened in real life lots of people would leave, but for the sake of the statistics let's assume that's not possible for some reason)
  • there was nothing you could do to protect yourself, i.e. everyone had an equal chance of being killed no matter where they were, who they were, what they were doing
  • this went on for fifty years, with no-one being able to even slow down the attacks, never mind end the war

then the chances of any given person being killed in one of these attacks (over the whole fifty year period, and assuming the population stays otherwise constant and they don't die from something else first) is just over 5%. If you calculate it with all of the attacks happening in Western Europe and nowhere else, it goes up to just under 11%.

The proportion of deaths caused by road traffic accidents in the UK in 2013 was 0.33%. Taking that as your lifetime risk of dying in a traffic accident (it's not really, because that depends a lot on demographics and the figure is falling every year, but it'll do), the chance that you'd die in a terrorist attack in our ludicrously over the top worst-case-scenario fictional universe is about sixteen times the chance your death will be caused by a traffic accident in real life. And remember that's if there's a 9/11-scale attack in one of 'our' parts of the world every single day for fifty years. Even if you only count Western Europe as 'close to home', it's still less than 35 times as likely - and the chance that you'll die in a traffic accident is low to begin with.

Or to put it another way, if attacks on that scale happened in Western Europe 'only' once a month instead of every day, the chance that you'd die in a terrorist attack compared to a traffic accident would be about the same.

That's not the same as saying you wouldn't be involved in some other capacity, of course. Part of the reason why terrorism seems like a bigger threat, besides the fact that it makes much bigger news, is that it's easier to feel involved even if we're not. I feel connected to the Paris attacks because I found out later that a good friend of mine was within a mile of them at the time - if I'd said I felt 'connected' to a small (but fatal) accident on the M6 because I found out afterwards that a good friend of mine had been driving there on the same day and ended up stuck in traffic, you'd probably think I was insane at best. A lot of people will have had 'near misses' with these sorts of events - they were elsewhere in Paris, they were in Paris the week before, they were going to be in Paris but changed their plans, they weren't in Paris but their friend/cousin/co-worker was/would have been if not for xyz... there are going to be literally millions of those stories (from the inhabitants of Paris alone, for one thing), and in the end 'only' 130 people were actually killed. But all of them feel like 'could have been me' scenarios, because we're so terrible at estimating risk.

Anyway OP, sorry for the huge and slightly off-topic post - hopefully it might make some people feel at least a little bit better. Although all that said, I did decide not to fly to Germany a few weeks ago following a sudden baseless fear that I'd be involved in some sort of crash... it just goes to show that you can't reason your way out of everything! Smile If you're so afraid that going to the theatre will be a horrible experience regardless of actual threat, and your kids aren't bothered about missing it, there's no point in forcing yourself to go through that. There'll always be other plays - statistically no safer, probably, but if you're less afraid you'll enjoy it more. But don't spend the rest of life in hiding because of something that will almost certainly never happen, because that would be a sad way to live Flowers

psychomath · 20/11/2015 23:53

If anyone is sceptical or wants more reassurance I can explain where I got all the figures, by the way - I just didn't want to bog the post down to be even longer than it already was.

Kingfisherfree · 21/11/2015 07:36

Thanks so much for your post Psychomath.

OP posts:
Kacie123 · 21/11/2015 07:49

Thanks psychomath! I'm not good at making stats. Are you able to rerun them for something like...

  • there was an attack every Friday which killed 150 people
  • attacks included place in Africa or the Middle East,
  • there was some chance you could survie
  • this went on for 5 years

... Do those odds lower or rise? (I'm assuming lower?)

Motheroffourdragons · 21/11/2015 10:22

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BoffinMum · 21/11/2015 10:34

There is also the question of Mumsnetter risk. If you calculated the risks for RTAs and terrorist attack deaths and removed males between the ages of 18-50 (sorry Dadsnet people), you would find that those risks were likely to be significantly lower. In other words, mothers and children are statistically less likely to be together minding their own business in many of the places where the really bad things happen - you are even unluckier if that happens. Both for RTAs and terrorism. Have I made sense there?

LimboNovember · 21/11/2015 11:17

Motheroffourdragons Sat 21-Nov-15 10:22:45

Its just what I am reading Mother, Flowers lets pray they prevent anything planned.

I am going out later to a well known tourist town and I feel scared, am going though.

Queenbean · 21/11/2015 11:48

I'm in Brussels today too, it's my birthday and I came away with a group of friends. Currently holed up in a hotel, not ideal, armed police everywhere

LimboNovember · 21/11/2015 11:59

Oh gosh Queen, I hope your all OK.

Motheroffourdragons · 21/11/2015 12:30

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Madbengalmum · 21/11/2015 12:36

Jesus, i have just read about the suspected chemical attacks in france and belgium in the telegraph, really not sure where this all ends.
Needless to say my husband and i have abandoned a trip to london today because i really do not see the point of putting ourselves in danger for the sake of a bit of shopping etc.

Queenbean · 21/11/2015 13:07

I'm staying in a hotel near to the Grand Place! We went out for dinner last night and had a lovely time which was fine, bit of a surprise to wake up today to the news of the lock down

We were meant to be doing a tour of the sights which obviously we have cancelled, went for breakfast this morning though which was odd - military trucks everywhere, lots of police etc

Our hotel has armed guards at the front so I presume that's why if something was found recently. Also I guess because of the Mali attacks

Dp has apparently organised a little party in one of our hotel rooms so we can at least celebrate my birthday a bit! We all live in London so used to possible threats but this feels very different

One of the group lives in Paris and said had said how horrible it felt to be fearful. I now know exactly how she feels - you really can't predict anything and we'd rather be safe than risk it but at the same time, feeling very cooped up here!