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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to think Corbyn is dead in the water

435 replies

oldshilling · 15/09/2015 18:39

Yes he's a nice chap with a nice beard, but silliness (principled though it might be) like refusing to sing the national anthem is not going to endear him to more than a small minority of the population.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34263447

And the signs are that he intends to be the gift that keeps on giving, in terms of pointless gestures that don't really achieve anything but make him a mega-target for the right-wing press.

Either he gets turfed out before the next GE, or he surpasses Michael Foot as the biggest loser in Labour's history.

OP posts:
Hellocampers · 16/09/2015 18:13

Captain unfortunately Farrage doesn't say what he thinks he says what millions think and he got their votes in the election. They have been neglected by labour for years.

I can't see those voters going to Corbyn can you?

Although I would love to be proved wrong.

Question time was a cross between a radio phone in and a quiz.

He didn't challenge Cameron at all.

Millymollymama · 16/09/2015 18:15

The policy of the Labour Party is not dictated solely by the leader's views. It has a far more collective approach. So, at the moment, the existing policies stand. What the leader chooses to do, or not do, says more about his personality , not the politics of the Labour Party. With 90% of MPs openly unhappy about his leadership, and left-wing Labour Party activists on the march, many MPs will be in for a rough ride in their constituencies.

A political party is formed to get into Government - otherwise it is a pressure group. If the Labour Party moves so far to the left that it alienates all the people in the marginal constituencies, whose votes it needs, it just ends up pleasing its noisy members but never has any power because it will not appeal to voters in the marginal constituencies and will, therefore, never be elected.

The policies and personnel must appeal to about 95 constituencies in England and Wales, assuming Scotland is lost. Why would SNP voters come back to Labour? SNP is Labour left with a heady mix of independence - and Nicola Sturgeon! It is highly likely the new Labour Party members mostly come from Labour held areas in London and the North. There are probably very few from the marginal seats and, if there are new members from the Tory heartlands, then they will have no influence in the GE at all!

More former Labour voters voted UKIP than former Conservative voters did at the last election. How will the Labour Party win them back? They are often working class and feel they are not represented by Labour. Their issue is immigration. How will Labour get them back? 4.5 million votes are up for grabs there. An internally weak Labour party with in-fighting never gets anywhere. Never has, never will.

Lalsy · 16/09/2015 18:27

Yes, Milly, and apparently most of the voters Labour lost to the Greens live in seats Labour held on to. UKIP voters seem to go for people with tough lines on immigration and a terrible sense of humour. JC doesn't appear to have a sense of humour at all. They wouldn't want to have a pint with him (I would quite like to though!).

[curtseys to Hellocampers] Grin.

Donotknowhownottomind · 16/09/2015 18:30

He looked and sounded like a well meaning geography teacher on a field trip during Prime Ministers Question Time.

Sad

I hope JC is working on his relationship with the PLP and fast. Sadly I think the wheeler dealing needed to unite the party and hopefully form cross party alliances runs contrary to his uber principled nature. I hope I am wrong.

Donotknowhownottomind · 16/09/2015 18:30

In short.

to think Corbyn is dead in the water
Lalsy · 16/09/2015 18:33

I agree - I don't really see how you can, or should, compromise on being anti-austerity, say. So in that sense perhaps he had to appoint McD, which could be disastrous. Sigh.

captainproton · 16/09/2015 18:44

JC is anti EU which as my father likes to remind me is what old labour used to be the last time there was a referendum. My father ex miner and like many of his mates have for some years turned their back on labour, either not bothering to vote or going with UKIP. They didn't like Blair, brown and milliband. They aren't stupid people, a lot of them had been to old polytechnics after school and worked in heavy industry, steel, engineering etc. they saw the death of a vital industry and most of it in their area under a labour government in the late 90's and early 00's. If JC does stick with his anti-EU beliefs I know there will be some happy folk in my family.

Snoozebox · 16/09/2015 18:51

Why is he anti-EU? I don't understand.

batshitlady · 16/09/2015 18:56

But JC has already backtracked from his most radical ideas (republicanism, leaving NATO, leaving the EU). John McDonnnell has announced that he plans to cut the 'deficit' too. Pretty mainstream, neo-classical economics with a bit of Keynes thrown in it seems to me...

Werksallhourz · 16/09/2015 19:11

Corbyn is dead in the water, but not for refusing to sing the National Anthem.

He's dead in the water because his principles and policies are informed by wonky data, statistics and information, and he has no idea how the world actually works.

For example, I read his economic plan. Some of the statistics made in that plan are so far adrift from official statistics, and basic observation, that you start to wonder whether Corbyn has any common sense.

I'll give you the example that sparked my interest. Corbyn's plan claims £120bn is lost every year through the "tax gap": the combined figures for avoidance, evasion and debt. HMRC claims the tax gap is £35bn. That's quite a difference. £120bn is an extraordinary amount of money, more than a sixth of the entire fiscal spend a year.

So I had a look into where this figure had come from. Turns out it came from a report commissioned by PCS (the union), so I read that. Some of the estimates and conclusions in that PCS report, backing up the £120bn claim, are extraordinary. It claims, for example, that £40bn a year is lost through trading in the shadow economy, and that 10 percent of all net retail sales go unrecorded.

Yes, let me just say that again ... according to the PCS report, one in 10 net retail sales in Britain go unrecorded.

The idea is laughable. And incidentally, the author of the report does not back up this estimate with published figures, which he wouldn't, because the notion is as daft as a squirrel wearing a top hat and singing "My way" while tap-dancing across a dry stone wall.

What is even more amusing is the idea that, supposing in some alternate world that the claim were true, a Corbyn government could do anything about it without implementing a police state -- because that is what you would need. Constant surveillance on small to medium-sized businesses across all sectors, regular raids on shops and offices, real time labour and earnings monitoring of the self-employed, crack finance squads glued to ebay to catch mums selling old kid's clothes for a few bob ... the Soviet Union couldn't even do it, so God knows how Corbyn would.

The even more amusing thing is that the scale of such a constant operation would require the police and justice service to more than double in size, so you would, best case scenario, lose three-quarters of your return of £40bn through the necessity of doubling the current law and order budget, which currently stands somewhere around £30bn. So you would piss off huge numbers of people, implement a big brother state, jack boots all over everyone's faces, and all over the matter of £10bn.

But Corbyn must read this nonsense and believe it.

Incidentally, the other glossed-over aspect of Corbyn's economic plan is that it works from the basis of Osbourne either wiping out the deficit by 2010, or, worst case scenario, halving it.

So Corbyn saying "down with austerity" is rather odd when his economic plan depends upon it. Part of me wonders whether he even knows what is in his economic plan in the first place.

And don't even get me started on the cost of "reversing austerity". Corbyn would need somewhere in the region of about £125bn to £150bn for that. Total tax take is only £647bn.

Foxypaws70 · 16/09/2015 19:17

SeekEvery Hell yes. He can't win. Shitstorm whatever he does.

MamaMary · 16/09/2015 19:31

I have a lot of respect for anyone who has not been programmed to be a media-savvy, career politician who eventually becomes out of touch with the ordinary folk.

He IS a career politician and he IS completely out of touch with ordinary folk.

But I'm with you on the media-savvy.

yeOldeTrout · 16/09/2015 19:41

I strongly voted against Corbyn on my ballot.
I think the more folk attack Corbyn, the more I like him.
He has definitely got people interested in politics. Talking & thinking about it with fresh eyes. That alone is a very good thing.

Shutthatdoor · 16/09/2015 19:48

I have a lot of respect for anyone who has not been programmed to be a media-savvy, career politician

He may not be media savyou but he most certainly is a career politician.

He has also backtracked over the anthem apparently and will sing in future.

Mistigri · 16/09/2015 20:11

He's a "career politician" in the sense that politics has been his job for four decades, so presumably it is his career/calling/vocation - whatever you want to call it

But the term is usually used to describe a politician who aims to quickly climb the political heap. And someone who has been a backbencher for 30 years and only stood for leader because it was muggin's turn probably can't be accused of excessive political ambition.

Lalsy · 16/09/2015 20:25

But now, with more power than he has ever in his wildest dreams as a career rebel come close to, he is backtracking rapidly, as batshitlady says. I don't really understand how this can work. Presumably those who voted for the tough on NATO and the EU, hardline anti-austerity, non-anthem singing republican will be disillusioned pretty quickly and we know how his wing of the party treats those they see as betraying its cause? But softening on those lines won't persuade people who thought his take on the Ukraine, Russia and NATO (for example) was outrageous to trust him - I doubt they ever will. I am not blaming him.

Werks, what an interesting post, thank you.

Beholdtheflorist · 16/09/2015 20:48

I know it's unfashionable but I really like Harriet Harman and I'm sad she didn't stand. If you read any political memoir or diary, there's two things that are always said about her almost without exception (and usually with derision); she's utterly loyal to the party and won't stop banging on about women's rights. I think that's a fine political epitaph to have.

I also really liked Kinnock and think without him, we wouldn't have had any kind of Labour government as he started the process of modernisation.

Anyway, I appear to be the only person in my circle of friends who was miffed about having Jeremy Corbyn as leader but I don't think Labour has any chance of electoral success and frankly I'm gutted at whats happened in the past few days.

sanfairyanne · 16/09/2015 21:03

That 120bn is an eu figure and is why we had to pay so much more to the eu last year, alongside italy

Yes it is disgusting

It is also why so many illegal economic immigrants flock to the uk for work

sanfairyanne · 16/09/2015 21:06

Its just something we never read about in the media
Wonder why?

Lalsy · 16/09/2015 21:10

Me too, Beholdtheflorist. To the outside world it looks like chaos. I don't understand how the timing could have worked. Of course as soon as he was elected, the press asked what the party's policies are on key issues. That isn't being unbalanced. But if he sticks to his principles, that won't be known for months or years as it will take that long to run the democratic processes. He is reported tonight as saying he will make final policy decisions. He doesn't seem to be sticking to his principles, and those principles will mean many people will never vote for him. Lose/lose, it seems to me.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 16/09/2015 21:22

Beautifully put, Werksallhourz

merrymouse · 16/09/2015 21:58

A political party is formed to get into Government - otherwise it is a pressure group.

I think this is the key reason why JC was so successful.

None of the candidates looked like future PM's. Therefore if people are voting for the leader of a pressure group they would like somebody who will actually apply pressure.

You can only play the electability card if you look like you will win an election.

sanfairyanne · 16/09/2015 22:19

Spot on merrymouse

Also, i know it is bandied about all the time, but a political party does not have the sole aim of winning enough seats to form a government.for example, plaid cymru cant have spent the 60 or so years between their formation and the birth of the welsh assembly, hoping to form a uk wide majority of seats.

Hellocampers · 17/09/2015 00:29

behold I like Harriet too as think her recent PMQs have been very good and she's an old gimmer like me.

However I was accused of actually being her when i posted earlier. Truly some bonkers posters on this thread.
Bloody wish was as off to the Lords and set for life! Envy

And lalsy for PM in my
Opinion. Great posts

Want2bSupermum · 17/09/2015 01:21

Werksallhourz Totally agree. Also most people who voted for UKIP did so because they have see the death of manufacturing. None of the policies I have seen come out from him look to do anything to help manufacturing. If anything many of the proposed policies will make it harder for these companies.

Quite frankly I would take UKIP over this loon and his team any day. Never thought I would say that. At least NF/UKIP actually listened to people and while I didn't agree with his policies they were quite well composed and thought out.