If Con + LibDem + DUP +UKIP is less than 323 then they can't govern, can they
They could form a minority government if the conservatives had the most seats with or without the formal support of other parties
HOWEVER
Such a government can only pass legislation with the support of enough other members to provide a majority. Therefore a coalition maybe more preferable as it is easy to block legislation - especially if there are dissenters within their own ranks. This makes it easy for the government to collapse. In order for there to be another election two thirds of MPs have to back another election. (434 votes)
The further, any government whether it be a coalition or not is to 323, the more difficult to work on a day to day basis. It would be difficult even for a single party to do but obviously there are added complications with a multi party agreement. The question would really be how close a single party was to 323 as to whether it would be easier or harder for them to go it alone or work as a coalition.
I do feel at the 280 - 290 mark which seems to be the most the CONs are coming up with in the polls (Labour are coming up with less) this isn't enough for a stable single party and they probably would be better working in coalition even as a minority. But I think others might call it differently.
CONSEQUENTLY
I think that a minority CON government might struggle more to get enough votes on a day to day basis than a minority LAB one as Labour probably can get more people to work with them, without the need for a formal agreement with another party. The CONs probably need a coalition more than LAB for stability for this reason.
However if LAB get less seats than the CONs then they won't have the same mandate to rule as the CONs, and the CONs can block them. I'm pretty sure this is likely to be Labour's gamble and the Lib Dems are probably also aware of the same, which may affect whether they decide to go into power with either party. A LAB/LD minority government could be an option that no one is really considering at this moment in time. This is why I think that the balance of power really could rest with the LDs again this time, if Miliband is genuinely ruling out a coalition with the SNP. Clegg probably has the best chance of being in the cabinet in the next government out of the three of them at this point - provided he can defend his own seat of course.
THEREFORE
I think the only real certainty is that the most unpopular of government proposals will have real difficulty getting passed by any government. Hence noise of cutting x, y and z or introducing a, b or c may be a lot more difficult than people realise. Which actually might help swing voters who might be worried voting a particular way. I find this interesting that no one has really highlighted this much in the press, but then all the newspapers have come out with a political line so no one wants to tell you this because it will weaken their own case for the throne. I'm more surprised it hasn't been covered more by the BBC or C4, but again they may have their hands tied by the law on broadcasting and influencing the election. It will chop off the hands of an aggressive austerity CON government or a cash happy LAB government.
Also, in the event the Conservatives form the government a referendum on the EU could easily get blocked by LAB/SNP with the LDs either blocking or abstaining depending on what they do. (Thank fuck). But this will leave Cameron able to say that he tried to get it through - but it could mean the government collapses in the process. And will utterly fuck off UKIP.
Certainly Miliband's gamble here is an interesting one.
The questions are really how much do people trust him and will it pay off.
And WATCH Cleggy...