To think the Tories have it in the bag.

[Littlefluffyclouds81]

I hope IABU.

To be fair, this is only based on the West Country (I do quite a lot of driving so I'm including Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Wiltshire, Dorset, bristol and bath). Driving around, I'd say the amount of stake boards and posters I've seen roughly represent these proportions:

Conservative: 60%
Green: 15%
UKIP: 15%
Lib dem: 8%
Labour: 2%

They have it sewn up, don't they? My mum is involved in politics and her prediction is a Tory/UKIP coalition

If that happens I'm emigrating.

Does anyone think a Lab-Con coalition is possible? I think Cameron and Miliband actually have more in common with each other than they do with any of the other leaders. (With the exception of Clegg.) It might actually be really good for the country - continued economic growth, but perhaps a little slower because of less austerity. It could be the making of Britain, or am I dreaming?

I have the only Labour poster in our area. Every other poster is Conservative or UKIP. I have people stopping outside my house and staring at the poster with utter confusion. A chap yesterday took a photograph of it whilst shaking his head.

However, on Saturday I drove 16 miles to the east of my home and suddenly all the posters were Labour or Green. Not a Cons or UKIP poster in sight. 16 miles in the other direction and it's Lib Dem all the way. Round here people very much vote for the local MP and we are a county of ultra safe seats. My local Tory MP could fellate John McCririck on the steps of the town hall whilst breathing cannabis fumes on neonates and she'd still get elected. Ross Poldark as an opposition candidate could ride in, naked, on a stallion, handing out free cake and gin and nobody would vote for him. I can't wait to move.

My local Tory MP could fellate John McCririck on the steps of the town hall whilst breathing cannabis fumes on neonates and she'd still get elected. Ross Poldark as an opposition candidate could ride in, naked, on a stallion, handing out free cake and gin and nobody would vote for him. I can't wait to move.

Well, your first scenario I would not rush to see but your second...when and where is this happening please????

judypoovey I referred to that possibility upthread. I really think it could work as there is so much middle ground they share.

judy I think you are dreaming! I think it would be viewed as a 'betrayal' by voters on both sides and completely undermine the entire Westminster system they rely on. Hence why they wouldn't even consider it, even if it was the best idea ever.

There are a few polls now putting the Conservatives on 280+ seats - including the one from Panorama. I do think if that happens a Con - Lib - DUP minority coalition is probably the most likely as Lab - SNP would have less seats and Clegg has ruled out any agreement with the SNP.

But of course that presumes Clegg survives. He is looking like the kingmaker again though, which is quite remarkable and flies in the face in just how much they have been over looked in the media coverage. I tend to think that the Lib Dems getting a second term in any coalition is a good thing though as it will moderate a lot of looney elements from either side.

Can Nick Clegg (and enough senior Lib Dems) hold onto their seats though? A weakened Lib Dem parliamentary party with, say, Vince Cable at the helm surely isn't a viable coalition partner?

HuftysTrain, now that you've picked my post to comment on, I'm not sure I can keep my promises after all. Can I offer you John McCririck, naked, on a Shetland Pony as a compromise?

I'm in the SW (in a city) and it's all labour posters round here. I think you tend to get more posters in marginal seats. Surely no-one would ever go into coalition with UKIP, even the Tories? It would be political suicide. Their supporters might shout the loudest but to 95% of the electorate they are raving loons.

Closer, I think the polls are suggesting that Clegg will have a very narrow escape and the Lib Dems will come out with between 24 and 28 seats. But I do agree with it resting on Clegg's seat. If Clegg goes they may swing behind Labour.

If they Tories get 280+ and the DUP 8, then if the latter decide to work together more formerly (they have a more informal working relationship currently) then they could potential block a SNP/Labour coalition (which Miliband has apparently ruled out my arse).

Thus making what the Lib Dems decide to do crucial, even with 24 seats.

I think Labour realistically need to get about 269 seats for Miliband to be PM (269 + 48 = 317 minimum) and the Conservatives need absolute minimum of about 281 seats for Cameron to stay in charge. (281 + 8 + 24 = 315 minimum). This doesn't count all the seats btw - it just gives a ball park for where the tipping point looks to be. A majority is 325 seats but 323 is considered workable as Sinn Fein don't take theirs at Westminster.

The only other out there workable suggestion is CON-SNP which I think is unlikely but having said that, there was that leaking of Sturgeon's comments and few people predicted CONDEM.

Its unlikely that we'll know who will be the next government until well into May 8th, but there are some seats that might give you a big clue, if you presume that CON/LD/DUP or LAB/SNP are the most likely coalitions from the current polls. The ones to really watch (in no particular order) are:

1. Croydon (Conservatives - Labour threat)

2. Ealing Central and Acton (Conservatives - Labour threat)

3. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Conservatives - Labour threat)

4. Pudsey (Conservatives - Labour threat)

5. Finchley and Golders Green (Conservatives - Labour threat)

6. Northampton North (Conservatives - Labour threat)

7. Ipswich (Conservatives - Labour threat)

8. Warrington South (Conservatives - Labour threat)

9. Harrow East (Conservatives - Labour threat)

10. Stockton South (Conservatives - Labour threat)

11. Hornsey and Wood Green (Lib Dem - Labour threat)

12. Leeds North West (Lib Dem - Labour threat)

13. Arfon (Plaid Cymru - Labour threat)

14. Ceredigion (Lib Dem - Plaid Cymru threat)

15. South Thanet and 16) Thurrock are also worth watching due to the unpredictability of the UKIP vote, though the latest is seeming to suggest that they won't get them (this would also mean Farage in South Thanet is liable not to remain UKIP leader which has ramifications for coalition discussions). And of course 17) Sheffield Hallam - Clegg's seat.

Anything that's up for grabs between CON/LD or LAB/SNP is not as likely to affect the outcome in the above most likely scenarios.

There are a lot of other seats that are likely to change hands - its just these seem to be the most unpredictable and closest run ones and therefore the ones that will be the best barometer of what the next government will be.

To put it simply, the more of the above that go Labour, the more likely Miliband will be PM imho.

And if you are in any of them, really get your arse out and make sure you vote.

Closer, I think the polls are suggesting that Clegg will have a very narrow escape and the Lib Dems will come out with between 24 and 28 seats. But I do agree with it resting on Clegg's seat. If Clegg goes they may swing behind Labour.

If they Tories get 280+ and the DUP 8, then if the latter decide to work together more formerly (they have a more informal working relationship currently) then they could potential block a SNP/Labour coalition (which Miliband has apparently ruled out my arse).

Thus making what the Lib Dems decide to do crucial, even with 24 seats.

I think Labour realistically need to get about 269 seats for Miliband to be PM (269 + 48 = 317 minimum) and the Conservatives need absolute minimum of about 281 seats for Cameron to stay in charge. (281 + 8 + 24 = 315 minimum). This doesn't count all the seats btw - it just gives a ball park for where the tipping point looks to be. A majority is 325 seats but 323 is considered workable as Sinn Fein don't take theirs at Westminster.

The only other out there workable suggestion is CON-SNP which I think is unlikely but having said that, there was that leaking of Sturgeon's comments and few people predicted CONDEM.

Its unlikely that we'll know who will be the next government until well into May 8th, but there are some seats that might give you a big clue, if you presume that CON/LD/DUP or LAB/SNP are the most likely coalitions from the current polls. The ones to really watch (in no particular order) are:

1. Croydon (Conservatives - Labour threat)

2. Ealing Central and Acton (Conservatives - Labour threat)

3. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Conservatives - Labour threat)

4. Pudsey (Conservatives - Labour threat)

5. Finchley and Golders Green (Conservatives - Labour threat)

6. Northampton North (Conservatives - Labour threat)

7. Ipswich (Conservatives - Labour threat)

8. Warrington South (Conservatives - Labour threat)

9. Harrow East (Conservatives - Labour threat)

10. Stockton South (Conservatives - Labour threat)

11. Hornsey and Wood Green (Lib Dem - Labour threat)

12. Leeds North West (Lib Dem - Labour threat)

13. Arfon (Plaid Cymru - Labour threat)

14. Ceredigion (Lib Dem - Plaid Cymru threat)

15. South Thanet and 16) Thurrock are also worth watching due to the unpredictability of the UKIP vote, though the latest is seeming to suggest that they won't get them (this would also mean Farage in South Thanet is liable not to remain UKIP leader which has ramifications for coalition discussions). And of course 17) Sheffield Hallam - Clegg's seat.

Anything that's up for grabs between CON/LD or LAB/SNP is not as likely to affect the outcome in the above most likely scenarios.

There are a lot of other seats that are likely to change hands - its just these seem to be the most unpredictable and closest run ones and therefore the ones that will be the best barometer of what the next government will be.

To put it simply, the more of the above that go Labour, the more likely Miliband will be PM imho.

And if you are in any of them, really get your arse out and make sure you vote.

Interesting, Red

I'm trying to find the article I read recently with all the vulnerable senior LD seats (from memory, Clegg, Danny Alexander, David Laws, Simon Hughes). Extract them from the parliamentary presence and there's not a lot of serious LD clout left

I've already voted but in a safe seat

Red toothbrush, the SNP will never go into a coalition with the Tories. Nicola Sturgeon grew up hating everything Maggie Thatcher and the Tories stood for. The Tories have never recovered from treating Scotland like an experiment for the Poll Tax, so much so they now only have 1 MP in the entire country.

Very interesting, Red. A relative of mine lives in one of the seats where Labour is threatening a small Con majority and she thinks Labour will succeed. They are campaigning very hard whereas the Conservative incumbent seems largely absent.

David Cameron and Lynton Crosby would love this thread. I can't recall one mention of Europe so far.

Judypoovey (great name!) the thought of a con-lab coalition- post-war consensus anyone? Create lots of stable jobs in industry & manufacturing, build affordable homes? It sounds perfect. But I guess it doesn't work because all those jobs have gone to China.

I've been reading up on the traditional bellwether seats, but it does look like its so close to call that they are not going to be as useful as in the past, plus all the analysis isn't really looking at coalition scenarios yet either (it'll probably change in the next couple of days). The list there look the most interesting to me as a result.

Closer, especially for you:
Election Forecast.co.uk is currently predicting the fate of the following LD Cabinet and Government Minsters to be as follows

Nick Clegg (Leader of the Liberal Democrats & Deputy Prime Minister)
Sheffield Hallam - 88% chance LD Win

Danny Alexander (Chief Secretary to the Treasury)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - 0% chance LD Win GOES SNP

Vince Cable (Secretary of State for Business, Innovation & Skills)
Twickenham - 86% chance LD Win

Alistair Carmichael (Secretary of State for Scotland)
Orkney and Shetland - 85% chance LD Win

Edward Davey (Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change)
Kingston and Surbiton - 87% chance LD Win

David Laws (Minister for Schools & Cabinet Office)
Yeovil - 81% chance LD Win

Simon Hughes (Minister for Justice and Civil Liberties)
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - 86% chance LD Win

Lynne Featherstone (Minister of State for Crime Prevention)
Hornsey & Wood Green - 51% chance LD Win

Norman Lamb (Minister for Care and Support)
North Norfolk - 97% chance LD Win

Dan Rogerson (Minister for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs)
North Cornwall - 89% chance LD Win

Jo Swinson (Minister for Employment, Consumer Affairs & Equalities)
East Dunbartonshire - 19% chance LD Win GOES SNP

Steve Webb (Minister for Pensions)
Thornbury & Yate - 100% chance LD Win

Stephen Williams (Minister for Communities and Local Government)
Bristol West - 0% chance LD Win GOES LABOUR

Tom Brake (Deputy Leader of the House of Commons, Assistant Government Whip)
Carshalton and Wallington - 100% chance LD Win

Lorely Burt (Assistant Government Whip)
Solihull - 1% chance LD Win GOES CONSERVATIVE

Don Foster (Deputy Chief Whip in the House of Commons)
Bath - 61% chance LD Win

Hope that answers your question.

Has anyone got any views on the predictions for Scotland and their reliability, bearing in mind that the referendum predictions were well wide of the mark?

Thanks Red

I used to be in Norman Lamb's constituency. It is currently painted orange. Nearly every house on the road I drove through the other day had a massive Lib Dem sign. I think 97% is a conservative estimate of his chances.

I'm in Hallam. It's very very tricky for Clegg here, and I'm not sure the percentage quoted above is anywhere near correct. A lot of students live in Hallam and they are very angry.

Local polls are putting Labour ahead of Lib Dems. And talking to neighbours etc, there is a real tide of revulsion and vehemence against Clegg which has never been evident before. No one has forgiven him for Forgemasters.

Sheffield hallam here also. Lots of labour signs, maybe 50 percent, 30 percent lib dems. A few greens. I've seen one or two Tories.

And a million leaflets from nick clegg!!!!!

Monstrous the referendum predictions were not right off the mark - No was always ahead in the polls apart from one and No was always the bookies result.

The SNP only have 6 seats out of 59 just now and Labour have 41....I have a feeling this will be reversed come May 8th.

Orange that's what I thought. However the above mentioned site is predicting 20% CON 31 % LAB 34% LD so Cleggy just survives.
AND
The bookies are ALL predicting a LD win and the odds on a Labour victory is currently lengthening with two of them.

Which I find interesting.

Elections in student constituencies can really flip dependent on whether the election falls during holiday or term time (and whether the students bother to register to vote at the student address rather than home address). I was a student in 1997, and it went from a safe Tory seat to Labour partly because all the students turned out and voted.

General Elections are always the first Thursday in May though. At least they have been for at least the last twenty years. So student behaviour shouldn't change from general election to election based on holiday times alone.

They will be more effected with whether students have bothered to vote or not. Bare in mind that the way you register has changed and there was a lot of worry that students in particular wouldn't register and they are already a group which has one of the highest levels of apathy. Therefore the effect of students is liable to be smaller than you might think.